Visa Spending Momentum Index Accelerated in October as Consumer Confidence Rebounded

Rhea-AI Summary

Visa's U.S. Spending Momentum Index (SMI) increased to 110.6 in October, up 2.1 points from September, indicating a rise in consumer spending compared to the previous year. The SMI for discretionary purchases reached 106.5, while non-discretionary purchases bounced back to 100.9. The Northeast experienced the most significant rise at 3.1 points. Visa's Chief Economist, Wayne Best, forecasts strong consumer spending growth for the fourth quarter, supported by declining COVID cases and rebounding consumer confidence.

Positive

• SMI for October increased to 110.6, indicating consumer spending growth.
• Discretionary purchases SMI rose to 106.5, signifying a strong consumer trend.
• Non-discretionary purchases SMI returned to positive at 100.9.
• Northeast SMI accelerated by 3.1 points, leading regional gains.

Negative

• West region posted the smallest SMI gain at just 0.1 points.

 

SAN FRANCISCO--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Visa (NYSE: V) today announced that the U.S. Spending Momentum Index (SMI) was 110.6 in October (seasonally adjusted), up 2.1 points from September. The SMI’s further increase above 100 signals that even more consumers are spending more than they did a year ago.

The Visa SMI is an economic indicator of the health of consumer spending. When the Visa SMI rises above 100, the consumer spending momentum is strengthening and when it falls below 100, the spending momentum is weakening as fewer consumers are spending more relative to the previous year.

By category, the SMI for discretionary purchases rose 1.5 points from the previous month to 106.5. The SMI for non-discretionary purchases rose 1.3 points to 100.9, which is a return to positive spending momentum after contracting last month. The SMI accelerated the fastest in the Northeast, rising 3.1 points. The South (+2.9 points) and Midwest (+1.7 points) also rose for the month, with the West posting the most modest rise in momentum at 0.1 points. While the West posted the smallest month-over-month gain, the SMI reading for the region remains the strongest among the four at 111.3 in October.

“This month’s SMI reading supports our view that consumer spending is set to bounce back in the fourth quarter,” said Wayne Best, Visa’s Chief Economist. “With new U.S. COVID case counts declining and consumer confidence rebounding, we expect a solid pace of consumer spending and economic growth through the end of the year.”

About the Visa SMI

The Visa SMI is an economic indicator of the health of consumer spending. The SMI provides insight into what drives upturns and downturns in spending by measuring the breadth of the momentum supporting these trends. The Visa SMI is based on a sample of aggregated, depersonalized VisaNet data. Visa adjusts this data through proprietary methods to exclude factors that do not reflect spending momentum. The resulting sample data is then aggregated using a diffusion index framework where index values are scored from 0 to 200. When the Visa SMI rises above 100, the consumer spending momentum is strengthening and when it falls below 100, the spending momentum is weakening as fewer consumers are spending more relative to the previous year. The index is adjusted for day of week, month, holidays, and broad annual trends, and these seasonal adjustments are subject to revision each year.

The Visa SMI does not take into account the volume of payments; nor does it rely on all Visa-branded credentials, and therefore does not reflect Visa operational or financial performance. It is intended for informational purposes only and is offered on an “as is” basis without any warranties of any kind, express or implied. Each SMI report is as of the publication date.

Eligible Visa clients in the U.S. may access more detailed and customized insights at the national, regional and local spending level, including spending on the main categories of goods and services.

For more information about the Visa U.S. Spending Momentum Index, please visit www.visa.com/partner-with-us/visa-consulting-analytics/spending-momentum-index.html

About Visa

Visa (NYSE: V) is the world’s leader in digital payments. Our mission is to connect the world through the most innovative, reliable and secure payment network - enabling individuals, businesses and economies to thrive. Our advanced global processing network, VisaNet, provides secure and reliable payments around the world, and is capable of handling more than 65,000 transaction messages a second. The company’s relentless focus on innovation is a catalyst for the rapid growth of digital commerce on any device, for everyone, everywhere. As the world moves from analog to digital, Visa is applying our brand, products, people, network and scale to reshape the future of commerce. For more information, visit About Visa, visa.com/blog and @VisaNews.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211110005570/en/

Media Contact

Shauna Ball

press@visa.com

Source: Visa Inc.

FAQ

What does the latest Visa Spending Momentum Index indicate?

The Visa Spending Momentum Index rose to 110.6 in October, indicating increasing consumer spending.

What is the SMI for discretionary purchases in October?

The SMI for discretionary purchases increased to 106.5 in October.

How did the Visa SMI perform by region in October?

The Northeast led with a 3.1 point increase, while the West had the smallest gain of 0.1 points.

What is the outlook for consumer spending according to Visa's Chief Economist?

Visa's Chief Economist, Wayne Best, forecasts solid consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter.