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Visa U.S. Spending Momentum Index Falls Again in September
Rhea-AI Impact
(Low)
Rhea-AI Sentiment
(Neutral)
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Rhea-AI Summary
Visa's U.S. Spending Momentum Index (SMI) for September recorded 108.5, a decrease of 1.1 points from August, indicating continued consumer spending above last year’s levels. Discretionary spending dipped to 105.0, while non-discretionary spending fell to 99.6, signaling a slowdown, especially in the Northeast. Despite these declines, Visa's Chief Economist anticipates a rebound in consumer spending as virus concerns ease approaching the holiday season.
Positive
SMI remains above 100, signaling overall consumer spending growth compared to the previous year.
Anticipated rebound in spending for the fourth quarter as concerns about the Delta variant diminish.
Negative
Overall spending momentum is slowing, particularly in the Northeast with a drop of 2.7 points.
Non-discretionary spending has contracted, falling below the crucial 100 threshold.
Visa’s latest SMI reading slows for the second month in a row
SAN FRANCISCO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--
Visa (NYSE: V) today announced that the U.S. Spending Momentum Index (SMI) was 108.5 in September (seasonally adjusted), down 1.1 points from August. With the SMI reading still above 100, this signals that more consumers are still spending more than they did a year ago.
By category, the SMI for discretionary purchases fell 0.8 points from the previous month to 105.0. The SMI for non-discretionary purchases fell 0.5 points to 99.6, marking a contraction in spending momentum. The SMI slowed the most in the Northeast, falling 2.7 points. The Midwest and South also slowed for the month, with both declining 0.3 points from August’s levels. Spending momentum rose a slight 0.1 points in the West, to 111.3, the strongest reading among the four regions.
“This month’s SMI reading reinforces our view that consumer spending was impacted by the Delta variant,” said Wayne Best, Visa’s Chief Economist. “We still expect spending to rebound in the fourth quarter as virus concerns begin to ease and consumers turn their attention towards holiday spending.”
About the Visa SMI
The Visa SMI is an economic indicator of the health of consumer spending. The SMI provides insight into what drives upturns and downturns in spending by measuring the breadth of the momentum supporting these trends. The Visa SMI is based on a sample of aggregated, depersonalized VisaNet data. Visa adjusts this data through proprietary methods to exclude factors that do not reflect spending momentum. The resulting sample data is then aggregated using a diffusion index framework where index values are scored from 0 to 200. When the Visa SMI rises above 100, the consumer spending momentum is strengthening and when it falls below 100, the spending momentum is weakening as fewer consumers are spending more relative to the previous year. The index is adjusted for day of week, month, holidays, and broad annual trends, and these seasonal adjustments are subject to revision each year.
The Visa SMI does not take into account the volume of payments; nor does it rely on all Visa-branded credentials, and therefore does not reflect Visa operational or financial performance. It is intended for informational purposes only and is offered on an “as is” basis without any warranties of any kind, express or implied. Each SMI report is as of the publication date.
Eligible Visa clients in the U.S. may access more detailed and customized insights at the national, regional and local spending level, including spending on the main categories of goods and services.
Visa (NYSE: V) is the world’s leader in digital payments. Our mission is to connect the world through the most innovative, reliable and secure payment network - enabling individuals, businesses and economies to thrive. Our advanced global processing network, VisaNet, provides secure and reliable payments around the world, and is capable of handling more than 65,000 transaction messages a second. The company’s relentless focus on innovation is a catalyst for the rapid growth of digital commerce on any device, for everyone, everywhere. As the world moves from analog to digital, Visa is applying our brand, products, people, network and scale to reshape the future of commerce. For more information, visit About Visa, visa.com/blog and @VisaNews.
