Return of the Doorbusters: Mastercard SpendingPulse Anticipates 10%* U.S. Retail Sales Growth Thanksgiving Week

Rhea-AI Summary

U.S. retail sales grew 6.1% year-over-year in October, signaling a robust start to the holiday shopping season. Thanksgiving Week sales are projected to rise 10% YOY, bolstered by e-commerce growth of 50.2% compared to 2019. Key trends include limited discounts in high-demand categories like Apparel (+56%) and Electronics (+29.6%). Black Friday is expected to rebound significantly with sales growth exceeding 20% due to increased in-store shopping. Overall, October's retail trajectory reflects heightened consumer spending amidst supply chain challenges.

Positive

• Retail sales increased 6.1% YOY in October, indicating strong consumer demand.
• Projected 10% growth in retail sales during Thanksgiving Week YOY.
• E-commerce sales expected to grow 50.2% compared to 2019 during Thanksgiving Week.
• Significant growth in Apparel (+56%) and Electronics (+29.6%) sales, signaling high consumer interest.

Negative

• Limited discounts anticipated in key categories due to inventory and shipping constraints.

October retail sales grew 6.1%* year-over-year, marking a strong start to the holiday shopping season

PURCHASE, N.Y.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- With holiday cheer in the air and shoppers returning to stores in force, U.S. retail sales during Thanksgiving Week are expected to grow 10.0% YOY and 12.2% YO2Y, excluding auto and gas. According to Mastercard SpendingPulse™, which measures overall retail sales across all payment types including cash and check, e-commerce is also expected to experience sustained growth, increasing 7.1% YOY and 50.2% YO2Y for the week running November 22 through November 28.

With supply chain challenges straining product availability, elevated inflation and consumers creating unprecedented demand for goods, this holiday season is shaping up to be a seller’s market for retailers. Key Thanksgiving Week trends to watch include:

• Deal hunters may be disappointed by limited discounts: Anticipated spending in key gift-giving categories such as Apparel (+56.0%), Electronics (+29.6%), and Jewelry (+39.7%) may lead retailers to discount strategically to manage product inventory and shipping constraints.
• Black Friday rebounds in 2021: Total retail sales growth excluding auto and gas is expected to surpass 20% on Black Friday. Last year, Black Friday sales were suppressed due to limited in-store foot traffic. With the return of doorbusters driving consumers back in stores and holiday window shopping in full display, the day is expected to rebound with optimism.
• Thankful for Thanksgiving store closures: Many big-box retailers, department stores and outlet malls will remain closed on Thanksgiving Day, providing consumers and employees with time to reconnect with family and friends – or shop the seasonal deals online. E-commerce sales Thanksgiving Week are anticipated to grow 50.2% compared to the same time in 2019.

“Holiday lights are shining bright for retailers this year,” said Steve Sadove, senior advisor for Mastercard and former CEO and Chairman of Saks Incorporated. “The consumer is strong and spending. With discounts in short supply, product innovation, availability and sustainability will be deciding factors for consumers eager to cross off their holiday shopping lists.”

Mastercard SpendingPulse™ Anticipated U.S. Retail Sales Growth Thanksgiving Week: Nov. 22 – Nov. 28
	2021 vs. 2020	2021 vs. 2019
Total Retail (ex. auto & gas)	10.0%	12.2%
Total Retail (ex. auto)	11.7%	13.7%
E-commerce sales	7.1%	50.2%
Apparel	56.0%	21.9%
Department Stores	40.2%	7.6%
Electronics	29.6%	17.5%
Jewelry	39.7%	39.7%
Luxury (ex. Jewelry)	92.3%	17.0%

Mastercard SpendingPulse October Insights: Holiday Spending in Full Swing

As anticipated, the holiday shopping season kicked off in October, with early promotions driving consumers online and in stores. According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, October U.S. retail sales excluding auto and gas increased 6.1% year-over-year and 12.9% compared to October 2019. E-commerce sales in October grew 13.2% YOY and 76.7% YO2Y, compared to the same periods.

Apparel, Jewelry, Luxury and Restaurants all saw double-digit growth compared to both 2020 and 2019. In addition, Department Stores rose +17.7% compared to last year and +6.6% vs. 2019. The full October SpendingPulse figures can be viewed here.

*excluding automotive and gas

About Mastercard SpendingPulse

Mastercard SpendingPulse reports on national retail sales across all payment types in select markets around the world. The findings are based on aggregate sales activity in the Mastercard payments network, coupled with survey-based estimates for certain other payment forms, such as cash and check. Mastercard SpendingPulse defines “U.S. retail sales” as sales at retailers and food services merchants of all sizes. Sales activity within the services sector (for example, travel services such as airlines and lodging) are not included.

About Mastercard (NYSE: MA)

Mastercard is a global technology company in the payments industry. Our mission is to connect and power an inclusive, digital economy that benefits everyone, everywhere by making transactions safe, simple, smart and accessible. Using secure data and networks, partnerships and passion, our innovations and solutions help individuals, financial institutions, governments and businesses realize their greatest potential. Our decency quotient, or DQ, drives our culture and everything we do inside and outside of our company. With connections across more than 210 countries and territories, we are building a sustainable world that unlocks priceless possibilities for all.
www.mastercard.com

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211115005696/en/

Julia Monti

Julia.monti@mastercard.com

914-249-6135

Alexandria Brown

Alexandria.Brown@mastercard.com

914.260.1020

Source: Mastercard Investor Relations

FAQ

What are the projected retail sales for Thanksgiving Week 2021?

Thanksgiving Week retail sales are expected to grow 10% year-over-year.

How much are e-commerce sales expected to grow during Thanksgiving Week?

E-commerce sales are projected to increase by 50.2% compared to 2019.

What was the increase in retail sales for October 2021 compared to the previous year?

October retail sales grew 6.1% year-over-year.

Which retail categories are expected to see significant growth?

Apparel is projected to grow by 56%, and Electronics by 29.6%.

What is the expected growth for Black Friday sales in 2021?

Black Friday sales excluding auto and gas are expected to surpass 20% growth.