Expert Panel Predicts Home Price Growth Will Decelerate in 2024 and 2025
The Q3 2024 Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) reveals expert predictions for home price growth deceleration in the coming years. Following a 6.0% growth in 2023, panelists forecast 4.7% growth in 2024 and 3.1% in 2025. The survey also explored potential policy reforms to boost housing supply, with experts suggesting that hastening construction permitting processes could have the most significant positive impact. However, 63% of panelists are not confident that effective initiatives will be widely enacted within five years. The panel estimates a national housing shortfall of 2.8 million homes, highlighting the persistent issue of inadequate supply despite strong price appreciation.
Il sondaggio sulle aspettative dei prezzi delle case di Fannie Mae per il terzo trimestre del 2024 (HPES) rivela le previsioni degli esperti riguardo a un decelerazione della crescita dei prezzi delle case nei prossimi anni. Dopo una crescita del 6,0% nel 2023, i membri del panel prevedono un aumento del 4,7% nel 2024 e del 3,1% nel 2025. Il sondaggio ha anche esplorato potenziali riforme politiche per aumentare l'offerta abitativa, con esperti che suggeriscono che velocizzare i processi di autorizzazione per la costruzione potrebbe avere l'impatto positivo più significativo. Tuttavia, il 63% dei membri del panel non è fiducioso che iniziative efficaci saranno ampiamente attuate entro cinque anni. Il panel stima un carenza abitativa nazionale di 2,8 milioni di case, evidenziando la persistente questione di un'offerta inadeguata nonostante un forte apprezzamento dei prezzi.
La Encuesta de Expectativas de Precios de Viviendas de Fannie Mae para el tercer trimestre de 2024 (HPES) revela las predicciones de expertos sobre una desaceleración en el crecimiento de los precios de las viviendas en los próximos años. Después de un crecimiento del 6.0% en 2023, los panelistas pronostican un crecimiento del 4.7% en 2024 y del 3.1% en 2025. La encuesta también exploró posibles reformas políticas para aumentar la oferta de viviendas, sugiriendo los expertos que acelerar los procesos de permisos de construcción podría tener el impacto positivo más significativo. Sin embargo, el 63% de los panelistas no confían en que las iniciativas efectivas se implementen ampliamente en cinco años. El panel estima una falta nacional de 2.8 millones de viviendas, destacando el problema persistente de una oferta inadecuada a pesar de la fuerte apreciación de los precios.
2024년 3분기 패니메이(Fannie Mae) 주택 가격 기대 조사를 통해 전문가들이 주택 가격 성장 둔화에 대한 예측을 제시하였습니다. 2023년에 6.0% 성장한 후 패널리스트들은 2024년에 4.7% 성장하고 2025년에 3.1% 성장할 것이라 예측하고 있습니다. 이 조사는 주택 공급을 늘리기 위한 정책 개혁 가능성도 탐구했으며, 전문가들은 건설 허가 절차를 신속하게 진행하는 것이 가장 큰 긍정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있다고 제안했습니다. 그러나 패널리스트의 63%는 효과적인 이니셔티브가 5년 내에 널리 시행될 것이라고 자신하지 않습니다. 패널은 280만 채의 전국적 주택 부족을 추정하며, 강력한 가격 상승에도 불구하고 공급 부족의 지속적인 문제를 강조하고 있습니다.
Le sondage sur les attentes en matière de prix des logements de Fannie Mae pour le troisième trimestre 2024 (HPES) révèle les prévisions d'experts concernant une ralentissement de la croissance des prix des logements dans les années à venir. Après une croissance de 6,0 % en 2023, les membres du panel prévoient une croissance de 4,7 % en 2024 et de 3,1 % en 2025. Le sondage a également exploré des réformes politiques potentielles pour stimuler l'offre de logements, avec des experts suggérant que la précipitation des processus d'autorisation de construction pourrait avoir l'impact positif le plus significatif. Cependant, 63 % des membres du panel ne sont pas confiants dans la mise en œuvre généralisée d'initiatives efficaces dans les cinq ans. Le panel estime un déficit national de logements de 2,8 millions de maisons, soulignant le problème persistant d'une offre inadéquate malgré une forte appréciation des prix.
Die Fannie Mae Umfrage zu den Erwartungen an die Immobilienpreise für das 3. Quartal 2024 (HPES) zeigt die Prognosen von Experten zur Verlangsamung des Wachstums der Immobilienpreise in den kommenden Jahren. Nach einem Wachstum von 6,0 % im Jahr 2023 erwarten die Teilnehmer ein Wachstum von 4,7 % im Jahr 2024 und 3,1 % im Jahr 2025. Die Umfrage untersuchte auch mögliche politische Reformen zur Erhöhung des Wohnungsangebots, wobei Experten vorschlugen, dass die Beschleunigung der Genehmigungsprozesse für den Bau den größten positiven Einfluss haben könnte. 63 % der Teilnehmer sind jedoch nicht zuversichtlich, dass effektive Initiativen in den nächsten fünf Jahren umfassend umgesetzt werden. Der Panel schätzt ein nationale Wohnungsdefizit von 2,8 Millionen Wohnungen, das das anhaltende Problem des unzureichenden Angebots trotz starker Preisanstiege hervorhebt.
- Home price growth forecast of 4.7% in 2024 and 3.1% in 2025, indicating continued market strength
- Expert panel's recognition of potential policy reforms to boost housing supply
- Strong home price appreciation persisting despite affordability challenges
- Deceleration in home price growth predicted for 2024 and 2025
- Lack of confidence (63% of panelists) in effective housing supply initiatives being enacted within 5 years
- Estimated national housing shortfall of 2.8 million homes
- Persistent inadequate housing supply and affordability crisis
Panel Also Shares Thoughts on Most Impactful Potential Policy Reforms to Boost Housing Supply
This quarter, the ESR Group also surveyed panelists on the impact of potential zoning and permitting reforms at state and local levels to increase construction of new homes and, thereby, the supply of homes available to buyers and renters. While most panelists believe that reforms implemented to date are likely to have a positive effect on new construction within the next five years, they were generally split on whether that effect would be "moderate" or "insignificant." A plurality of panelists suggested that hastening the construction permitting process would have the greatest positive impact on housing supply if broadly enacted, following by expanding zoning for multifamily housing developments and enabling more "missing middle" or "light touch density" housing construction. However,
"Recent measures of home price growth, including our own, have continued to come in stronger than previously expected, as reflected by the 100-plus HPES panelists who, on average, once again modestly upgraded their home price outlook for 2024," said Mark Palim, Fannie Mae Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. "Strong home price appreciation has persisted despite purchase affordability remaining stretched for the vast majority of consumers, a dynamic that is still primarily a function of inadequate supply. Our panelists overwhelmingly agreed that there is a fundamental lack of housing in
Terry Loebs, founder of Pulsenomics, added: "Despite robust home value growth in the first half of 2024, our panelists anticipate a slowdown in price appreciation for the remainder of the year and beyond. While lower interest rates could incentivize some homeowners to sell, the deep-rooted housing supply and affordability crises will likely persist, even with a more accommodative monetary policy."
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Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group, Pulsenomics, LLC and the surveyed experts included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, beliefs and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.
About Fannie Mae's Home Price Expectations Survey
Fannie Mae's Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES), produced in partnership with Pulsenomics, LLC, polls over 100 experts across the housing and mortgage industry and academia for forecasts of national home price percentage changes in each of the coming five calendar years, with the Fannie Mae Home Price Index as the benchmark. On a quarterly basis, Fannie Mae plans to publish the latest panelist-level expectations, as well as a special topic report that includes respondent feedback on topical questions designed to help inform the broader housing industry. The Q3 2024 HPES had 108 respondents and was conducted by Pulsenomics, LLC between July 30, 2024 and August 12, 2024.
About the ESR Group
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Doug Duncan, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and mortgage lender groups to provide forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets. The ESR Group was awarded the prestigious 2022 Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy based on the accuracy of its macroeconomic forecasts published over the 4-year period from 2018 to 2021.
About Fannie Mae
Fannie Mae advances equitable and sustainable access to homeownership and quality, affordable rental housing for millions of people across America. We enable the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and drive responsible innovation to make homebuying and renting easier, fairer, and more accessible. To learn more, visit:
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About Pulsenomics
Pulsenomics® is an independent research and index product development firm that leverages expertise in data analytics, opinion research, financial markets, and economics to deliver insight and market intelligence to institutional clients, partners, and the public at large. To learn more, visit pulsenomics.com.
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