Consumer Housing Sentiment Down Year over Year for First Time Since 2023
Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) declined 1.8 points to 71.6 in February 2025, marking its first year-over-year decrease (-1.2 points) in nearly two years. The decline was primarily driven by growing consumer pessimism about mortgage rates, with only 30% expecting rates to decrease in the next year.
While the share of consumers viewing it as a good time to buy slightly increased to 24%, the majority (76%) still consider it a bad time. The percentage seeing it as a good time to sell dropped to 62%. The survey revealed decreased optimism in personal finances, with more respondents concerned about job security and household income.
Key metrics show: home price expectations declined with 41% expecting increases; mortgage rate pessimism grew with 33% expecting increases; job loss concerns rose to 23% of respondents; and household income confidence weakened with 11% reporting significantly lower income compared to last year.
L'Indice di Sentiment per l'Acquisto di Casa di Fannie Mae (HPSI) è diminuito di 1,8 punti, raggiungendo 71,6 a febbraio 2025, segnando il primo calo anno su anno (-1,2 punti) in quasi due anni. La diminuzione è stata principalmente guidata da un crescente pessimismo dei consumatori riguardo ai tassi di interesse sui mutui, con solo il 30% che si aspetta una diminuzione dei tassi nel prossimo anno.
Sebbene la quota di consumatori che considera questo un buon momento per acquistare sia leggermente aumentata al 24%, la maggioranza (76%) continua a considerarlo un cattivo momento. La percentuale di chi vede questo come un buon momento per vendere è scesa al 62%. L'indagine ha rivelato un calo dell'ottimismo riguardo alle finanze personali, con un numero crescente di rispondenti preoccupati per la sicurezza del lavoro e il reddito familiare.
I principali indicatori mostrano: le aspettative sui prezzi delle case sono diminuite, con il 41% che si aspetta aumenti; il pessimismo riguardo ai tassi di interesse sui mutui è cresciuto, con il 33% che si aspetta aumenti; le preoccupazioni per la perdita di lavoro sono aumentate al 23% dei rispondenti; e la fiducia nel reddito familiare è diminuita, con l'11% che riporta un reddito significativamente inferiore rispetto all'anno scorso.
El Índice de Sentimiento de Compra de Vivienda de Fannie Mae (HPSI) disminuyó 1.8 puntos a 71.6 en febrero de 2025, marcando su primera caída interanual (-1.2 puntos) en casi dos años. La disminución fue impulsada principalmente por un creciente pesimismo de los consumidores sobre las tasas hipotecarias, con solo el 30% esperando que las tasas disminuyan en el próximo año.
Aunque la proporción de consumidores que considera que es un buen momento para comprar aumentó ligeramente al 24%, la mayoría (76%) aún lo considera un mal momento. El porcentaje que ve esto como un buen momento para vender cayó al 62%. La encuesta reveló un menor optimismo sobre las finanzas personales, con más encuestados preocupados por la seguridad laboral y los ingresos del hogar.
Los indicadores clave muestran: las expectativas de precios de las viviendas disminuyeron, con el 41% esperando aumentos; el pesimismo sobre las tasas hipotecarias creció, con el 33% esperando aumentos; las preocupaciones por la pérdida de empleo aumentaron al 23% de los encuestados; y la confianza en los ingresos del hogar se debilitó, con el 11% reportando ingresos significativamente más bajos en comparación con el año pasado.
팬니 메이의 주택 구매 감정 지수(HPSI)는 2025년 2월 1.8포인트 하락하여 71.6을 기록하며 거의 2년 만에 처음으로 전년 대비 감소(-1.2포인트)를 나타냈습니다. 이 감소는 주택담보대출 금리에 대한 소비자들의 비관이 커짐에 따라 발생했으며, 단 30%만이 내년에 금리가 하락할 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.
주택 구매에 적합한 시기로 보는 소비자의 비율은 24%로 약간 증가했지만, 여전히 대다수(76%)는 이를 나쁜 시기로 간주하고 있습니다. 판매에 적합한 시기로 보는 비율은 62%로 감소했습니다. 설문조사는 개인 재정에 대한 낙관이 감소했음을 보여주었으며, 더 많은 응답자가 일자리 안정성과 가계 소득에 대해 걱정하고 있습니다.
주요 지표는 다음과 같습니다: 주택 가격 기대는 감소하여 41%가 상승할 것으로 예상하고 있으며; 주택담보대출 금리에 대한 비관이 커져 33%가 상승을 예상하고 있으며; 일자리 상실에 대한 우려는 응답자의 23%로 증가했으며; 가계 소득에 대한 신뢰는 약화되어 11%가 작년보다 significantly 낮은 소득을 보고하고 있습니다.
L'Indice de Sentiment d'Achat de Maison de Fannie Mae (HPSI) a diminué de 1,8 point pour atteindre 71,6 en février 2025, marquant sa première baisse annuelle (-1,2 point) en près de deux ans. Cette baisse a été principalement entraînée par un pessimisme croissant des consommateurs concernant les taux hypothécaires, avec seulement 30% s'attendant à une baisse des taux dans l'année à venir.
Bien que la part des consommateurs considérant que c'est un bon moment pour acheter ait légèrement augmenté à 24%, la majorité (76%) le considère toujours comme un mauvais moment. Le pourcentage de ceux qui voient cela comme un bon moment pour vendre a chuté à 62%. L'enquête a révélé une diminution de l'optimisme concernant les finances personnelles, avec un nombre croissant de répondants préoccupés par la sécurité de l'emploi et le revenu du ménage.
Les indicateurs clés montrent : les attentes concernant les prix des maisons ont diminué, avec 41% s'attendant à des augmentations ; le pessimisme concernant les taux hypothécaires a augmenté, avec 33% s'attendant à des augmentations ; les préoccupations concernant la perte d'emploi ont augmenté pour atteindre 23% des répondants ; et la confiance dans le revenu du ménage a diminué, avec 11% signalant un revenu significativement inférieur par rapport à l'année dernière.
Der Kaufsentimentindex von Fannie Mae (HPSI) ist im Februar 2025 um 1,8 Punkte auf 71,6 gefallen und verzeichnet damit den ersten Rückgang im Jahresvergleich (-1,2 Punkte) seit fast zwei Jahren. Der Rückgang wurde hauptsächlich durch wachsenden Pessimismus der Verbraucher bezüglich der Hypothekenzinsen verursacht, wobei nur 30% erwarten, dass die Zinsen im nächsten Jahr sinken.
Obwohl der Anteil der Verbraucher, die es für einen guten Zeitpunkt zum Kaufen halten, leicht auf 24% gestiegen ist, betrachten die meisten (76%) es immer noch als schlechten Zeitpunkt. Der Prozentsatz, der dies als guten Zeitpunkt zum Verkaufen ansieht, fiel auf 62%. Die Umfrage ergab einen Rückgang des Optimismus in Bezug auf die persönlichen Finanzen, wobei mehr Befragte besorgt über die Arbeitsplatzsicherheit und das Haushaltseinkommen sind.
Wichtige Kennzahlen zeigen: Die Erwartungen an die Immobilienpreise sind gesunken, wobei 41% mit Anstiegen rechnen; der Pessimismus bezüglich der Hypothekenzinsen ist gewachsen, wobei 33% mit Anstiegen rechnen; die Sorgen um Arbeitsplatzverlust sind auf 23% der Befragten gestiegen; und das Vertrauen in das Haushaltseinkommen hat nachgelassen, wobei 11% von einem signifikant niedrigeren Einkommen im Vergleich zum Vorjahr berichten.
- Slight increase in 'good time to buy' sentiment (24% vs 22%)
- 62% still consider it a good time to sell
- 41% expect home prices to increase
- 77% not concerned about job loss
- First year-over-year HPSI decline in nearly two years (-1.2 points)
- Growing pessimism about mortgage rates (only 30% expect decrease)
- 76% consider it a bad time to buy homes
- Declining consumer confidence in personal financial situations
- Increased job loss concerns (23% worried vs 22% previous month)
- Higher share reporting significantly lower household income (11% vs 9%)
Pessimism Toward Mortgage Rates and Personal Financial Situations Grows
"In February, the HPSI saw its first year-over-year decline in nearly two years, which was mostly due to a shrinking share of consumers expressing optimism about the direction of mortgage rates," said Mark Palim, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. "This growing pessimism makes sense, as mortgage rates had remained near the
Home Purchase Sentiment Index – Component Highlights
Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) decreased 1.8 points in February to 71.6. The HPSI is down 1.2 points compared to the same time last year. Read the full research report for additional information.
- Good/Bad Time to Buy: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home increased from
22% to24% , and the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy decreased from78% to76% . The net share of those who say it is a good time to buy increased 2 percentage points month over month to negative53% . - Good/Bad Time to Sell: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home decreased from
63% to62% , and the percentage who say it's a bad time to sell increased from36% to37% . The net share of those who say it is a good time to sell decreased 3 percentage points month over month to25% . - Home Price Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months decreased from
43% to41% , while the percentage who say home prices will go down increased from22% to23% . The share who think home prices will stay the same increased from34% to35% . As a result, the net share of those who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months decreased 2 percentage points month over month to18% . - Mortgage Rate Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months decreased from
35% to30% , while the percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up increased from32% to33% . The share who think mortgage rates will stay the same increased from33% to36% . As a result, the net share of those who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months decreased 6 percentage points month over month to negative3% . - Job Loss Concern: The percentage of employed respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months decreased from
78% to77% , while the percentage who say they are concerned increased from22% to23% . As a result, the net share of those who say they are not concerned about losing their job decreased 1 percentage point month over month to55% . - Household Income: The percentage of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago increased from
17% to18% , while the percentage who say their household income is significantly lower increased from9% to11% . The percentage who say their household income is about the same decreased from73% to70% . As a result, the net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased 1 percentage point month over month to7% .
About Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index
The Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) distills information about consumers' home purchase sentiment from Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey® (NHS) into a single number. The HPSI reflects consumers' current views and forward-looking expectations of housing market conditions and complements existing data sources to inform housing-related analysis and decision-making. The HPSI is constructed from answers to six NHS questions that solicit consumers' evaluations of housing market conditions and address topics that are related to their home purchase decisions. The questions ask consumers whether they think that it is a good or bad time to buy or to sell a house, what direction they expect home prices and mortgage interest rates to move, how concerned they are about losing their jobs, and whether their incomes are higher or lower than they were a year earlier.
About Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey
The National Housing Survey (NHS) is a monthly attitudinal survey, launched in 2010, which polls a representative sample of adult household financial decision makers in
Fannie Mae conducts this survey and shares monthly and quarterly results so that we may help industry partners and market participants target our collective efforts to support the housing market. The February 2025 National Housing Survey was conducted between February 1, 2025, and February 18, 2025. Most of the data collection occurred during the first two weeks of this period. The latest NHS was fielded through AmeriSpeak®, NORC at the University of
Detailed HPSI & NHS Findings
For detailed findings from the Home Purchase Sentiment Index and National Housing Survey, as well as a brief HPSI overview and detailed white paper, technical notes on the NHS methodology, and questions asked of respondents associated with each monthly indicator, please visit the Surveys page on fanniemae.com. Also available on the site are in-depth special topic studies, which provide a detailed assessment of combined data results from three monthly studies of NHS results.
To receive e-mail updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, please click here.
About the ESR Group
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Mark Palim, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and mortgage lender groups to provide forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets.
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Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group or survey respondents included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group or survey respondents as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.
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FAQ
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