Mortgage Rates Expected to Move Lower in 2025 and 2026
Fannie Mae (FNMA) has revised its mortgage rate forecast, now projecting rates to end at 6.3% in 2025 and 6.2% in 2026, representing downward revisions of 0.3 percentage points for both years. This adjustment has led to a slight upgrade in the existing home sales forecast for 2025, although overall home sales expectations remain modest.
The Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group forecasts real GDP growth of 1.7% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026 on a Q4/Q4 basis, marking modest downward revisions due to weaker data and trade policy clarity. According to Mark Palim, Fannie Mae's Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, mortgage rates are expected to decrease further within the next quarter, potentially stimulating additional sales from hesitant buyers.
Fannie Mae (FNMA) ha rivisto la sua previsione sui tassi di interesse dei mutui, ora proiettando che i tassi si attesteranno al 6,3% nel 2025 e al 6,2% nel 2026, rappresentando una revisione al ribasso di 0,3 punti percentuali per entrambi gli anni. Questo aggiustamento ha portato a un lieve miglioramento nella previsione delle vendite di case esistenti per il 2025, anche se le aspettative complessive sulle vendite di case rimangono modeste.
Il Gruppo di Ricerca Economica e Strategica (ESR) prevede una crescita del PIL reale del 1,7% nel 2025 e del 2,1% nel 2026 su base Q4/Q4, segnando revisioni al ribasso modeste a causa di dati più deboli e chiarezza nelle politiche commerciali. Secondo Mark Palim, Vicepresidente Senior e Chief Economist di Fannie Mae, si prevede che i tassi di interesse dei mutui diminuiscano ulteriormente nel prossimo trimestre, potenzialmente stimolando ulteriori vendite da parte di acquirenti esitanti.
Fannie Mae (FNMA) ha revisado su pronóstico de tasas hipotecarias, proyectando ahora que las tasas terminarán en 6.3% en 2025 y 6.2% en 2026, lo que representa revisiones a la baja de 0.3 puntos porcentuales para ambos años. Este ajuste ha llevado a una leve mejora en la previsión de ventas de viviendas existentes para 2025, aunque las expectativas generales de ventas de viviendas siguen siendo modestas.
El Grupo de Investigación Económica y Estratégica (ESR) pronostica un crecimiento del PIB real del 1.7% en 2025 y del 2.1% en 2026 en base a Q4/Q4, marcando revisiones a la baja modestas debido a datos más débiles y claridad en las políticas comerciales. Según Mark Palim, Vicepresidente Senior y Economista Jefe de Fannie Mae, se espera que las tasas hipotecarias disminuyan aún más en el próximo trimestre, lo que podría estimular ventas adicionales de compradores indecisos.
팬니 메이 (FNMA)는 모기지 금리 전망을 수정하여 2025년에는 6.3%, 2026년에는 6.2%로 예상하고 있으며, 이는 두 해 모두 0.3%포인트 하향 조정된 수치입니다. 이 조정은 2025년 기존 주택 판매 전망에 약간의 개선을 가져왔지만, 전체 주택 판매 기대치는 여전히 미미합니다.
경제 및 전략 연구 그룹(ESR)은 2025년에는 1.7%, 2026년에는 2.1%의 실질 GDP 성장을 Q4/Q4 기준으로 예측하고 있으며, 이는 더 약한 데이터와 무역 정책의 명확성으로 인한 미미한 하향 조정입니다. 팬니 메이의 수석 부사장이자 최고 경제학자인 마크 팔림에 따르면, 모기지 금리는 다음 분기 내에 추가로 감소할 것으로 예상되며, 이는 주저하는 구매자들로부터 추가 판매를 자극할 수 있습니다.
Fannie Mae (FNMA) a révisé ses prévisions de taux hypothécaires, projetant maintenant que les taux atteindront 6,3% en 2025 et 6,2% en 2026, représentant des révisions à la baisse de 0,3 point de pourcentage pour les deux années. Cet ajustement a conduit à une légère amélioration des prévisions de ventes de maisons existantes pour 2025, bien que les attentes générales en matière de ventes de maisons restent modestes.
Le Groupe de Recherche Économique et Stratégique (ESR) prévoit une croissance du PIB réel de 1,7% en 2025 et de 2,1% en 2026 sur une base Q4/Q4, marquant des révisions à la baisse modestes en raison de données plus faibles et d'une clarté dans les politiques commerciales. Selon Mark Palim, Vice-président Senior et Économiste en Chef de Fannie Mae, les taux hypothécaires devraient diminuer encore au cours du prochain trimestre, ce qui pourrait stimuler des ventes supplémentaires de la part d'acheteurs hésitants.
Fannie Mae (FNMA) hat seine Prognose für Hypothekenzinsen überarbeitet und rechnet nun damit, dass die Zinsen 2025 bei 6,3% und 2026 bei 6,2% enden werden, was einer Abwärtskorrektur von 0,3 Prozentpunkten für beide Jahre entspricht. Diese Anpassung hat zu einer leichten Verbesserung der Prognose für den Verkauf bestehender Häuser im Jahr 2025 geführt, obwohl die allgemeinen Erwartungen an den Wohnungsverkauf weiterhin bescheiden bleiben.
Die Gruppe für wirtschaftliche und strategische Forschung (ESR) prognostiziert ein reales BIP-Wachstum von 1,7% im Jahr 2025 und 2,1% im Jahr 2026 auf Basis von Q4/Q4, was bescheidene Abwärtskorrekturen aufgrund schwächerer Daten und Klarheit in der Handelspolitik markiert. Laut Mark Palim, Senior Vice President und Chief Economist von Fannie Mae, wird erwartet, dass die Hypothekenzinsen im nächsten Quartal weiter sinken, was möglicherweise zusätzliche Verkäufe von zögernden Käufern anregen könnte.
- Mortgage rates forecast revised downward by 0.3 percentage points for both 2025 and 2026
- Slight improvement expected in existing home sales forecast for 2025
- Positive GDP growth projections maintained at 1.7% for 2025 and 2.1% for 2026
- Overall home sales expectations remain subdued despite rate improvements
- GDP growth forecasts revised downward due to weaker incoming data
- Economic growth projected to be modestly slower in the near term
Existing Home Sales Forecast Upgraded Slightly on Lower Rate Outlook
"We expect the recent pullback in mortgage rates will provide a small boost to home sales this year," said Mark Palim, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. "While our latest forecast calls for a period of modestly slower economic growth, historically, interest rates have been the most important driver of home sales. We think mortgage rates will move even lower within the next quarter and ultimately close the year at approximately 6.3 percent, which could be low enough to generate some extra sales from any would-be buyers still waiting on the sidelines."
Visit the Economic and Strategic Research site at fanniemae.com to read the full March 2025 Economic Outlook, including the Economic Developments Commentary, Economic Forecast, and Housing Forecast. To receive e-mail updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, please click here.
Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.
About the ESR Group
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Mark Palim, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and mortgage lender groups to provide forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets.
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