New Study Shows FICO® Score 10T Provides Greater Predictive Power for First-Time Homebuyers

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Key Terms

fha regulatory

The FHA is the U.S. Federal Housing Administration, a government agency that insures home loans so lenders take less risk; think of it as a safety net that encourages banks to lend to buyers who might not qualify for conventional mortgages. For investors, FHA policy and activity matter because they shape demand for housing, affect mortgage availability and default risk, and influence the performance of banks, mortgage lenders, homebuilders, and mortgage-backed securities.

gse regulatory

A GSE (government-sponsored enterprise) is a privately owned company created by the government to support a public policy goal, such as making home loans or agricultural credit more available. Think of a GSE as a bridge that helps private lenders reach more customers by backing loans or buying them, which can stabilize markets and lower borrowing costs; investors watch GSEs because their ties to government policy and large balance sheets can affect risk, liquidity and returns.

credit bureau technical

A credit bureau is an organization that collects and stores people’s and businesses’ borrowing and payment histories, like a centralized file cabinet or report card for credit. Lenders, landlords and other businesses buy reports or scores from bureaus to judge how risky a borrower is, so changes in bureau data or practices can affect loan losses, consumer spending and regulatory risk—key drivers of value for banks, credit-card firms and data companies.

trended credit data technical

Trended credit data is a record of a borrower’s credit behavior over time—showing how balances, payments and utilization rise or fall month to month—rather than a single snapshot. Like watching a short video instead of a photo, it helps investors see whether credit risk is improving or deteriorating, which improves forecasting, loan pricing and the assessment of a company’s or loan pool’s long‑term financial health.

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05/18/2026 - 12:00 PM

Independent study finds FICO Score 10T is the most predictive credit score for first-time homebuyer mortgages, supporting sustainable access to homeownership

BOZEMAN, Mont.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- FICO (NYSE: FICO), global analytics software leader, today announced the results of a new analysis by independent actuarial firm Milliman, finding that FICO® Score 10T is the most predictive credit score for evaluating first-time homebuyer mortgage risk, outperforming VantageScore 4.0. The findings are especially significant for the millions of Americans working to achieve the dream of homeownership, where the accuracy of the credit score a lender relies on directly shapes who gets approved and on what terms.

The newly released analysis builds on Milliman's earlier research showing FICO® Score 10T is the most predictive credit score for evaluating mortgage default risk. Milliman independently analyzed nearly 20 million mortgages from a major U.S. credit bureau, covering GSE, FHA, and overall mortgage loans from 2011 through 2023.

Key findings from the Milliman analysis on first-time buyers include:

More accurate risk prediction overall: FICO® Score 10T did a better job separating borrowers who pay as agreed from those who default, across all three industry-standard measures as identified by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in their 2020 Joint Enterprise Credit Solicitation to assess score accuracy and reliability.
Strongest results for FHA loans: For FHA first-time homebuyer mortgages, a critical path to homeownership for lower-down-payment buyers, FICO Score 10T outperformed VantageScore 4.0 by over 10%. The differences between score performance were largest for origination periods with higher default rates, strengthening FICO Score 10T’s value in managing default risk.
More first-time buyers in better pricing tiers: FICO Score 10T scored more first-time homebuyers in the highest credit score bands relative to VantageScore 4.0.

“FICO believes the best way to expand homeownership is to give lenders the most accurate view of the borrowers in front of them,” said Julie May, vice president and general manager of B2B Scores at FICO. “This Milliman study shows that FICO Score 10T provides a more reliable view of first-time homebuyer risk than any other credit score available today. That precision allows lenders to extend credit confidently to qualified buyers, supports more stable outcomes for families and investors, and ultimately helps open the door to homeownership for more Americans.”

FICO® Score 10T incorporates trended credit data and, when available in the credit bureau file, rental payment history — giving lenders a more complete view of how consumers manage credit and housing payments over time. That richer picture is especially meaningful for first-time homebuyers, whose credit profiles are often thinner or still evolving.

To ensure lenders can evaluate the findings for themselves, FICO® Score 10T is currently available at no cost alongside Classic FICO through the FICO Score 10T Free Access Program, enabling side-by-side testing without requiring lenders to pay for an additional score. Nearly 60 lenders have already signed up.

The full white paper is available at https://www.milliman.com/en/insight/fico-score-10t-vantagescore-4-analysis-first-time-homebuyers.

For more information on how to sign up for the FICO Score 10T Free Access Program, visit the FICO Score 10T Migration Resource Center.

About FICO
FICO (NYSE: FICO) powers decisions that help people and businesses around the world prosper. Founded in 1956, the company is a pioneer in the use of predictive analytics and data science to improve operational decisions. FICO holds more than 200 US and foreign patents on technologies that increase profitability, customer satisfaction and growth for businesses in financial services, insurance, telecommunications, health care, retail and many other industries. Using FICO solutions, businesses in more than 100 countries do everything from protecting 4 billion payment cards from fraud, to improving financial inclusion, to increasing supply chain resiliency. The FICO® Score, used by 90% of top US lenders, is the standard measure of consumer credit risk in the US and has been made available in over 40 other countries, improving risk management, credit access and transparency.

Learn more at https://www.fico.com

Join the conversation at https://x.com/FICO_corp & https://www.fico.com/blogs

For FICO news and media resources, visit https://www.fico.com/en/newsroom

FICO is a registered trademark of Fair Isaac Corporation in the U.S. and other countries.