Latino Independent Voters Lean Toward Trump While Overall Voter Preferences Hold Steady
The Week 5 results of the 2024 National Latino Voter Tracking Poll reveal key insights into Latino voter preferences. Kamala Harris leads with 60% support, while Donald Trump has 35% support. However, Harris is underperforming compared to Biden's 2020 Latino support. Notably, Independent Latino voters are shifting towards Trump, with his support increasing from 34% to 46% over three weeks.
The poll highlights significant differences between California and Texas Latino voters. Harris overperforms in California (65% support) compared to Texas (56%), while Trump over-indexes in Texas (39%) versus California (30%). The economy remains the top concern for Latino voters in both states, with cost of living/inflation rated as a major issue by 58% of respondents. Other key issues vary between states, with housing costs ranking higher in California and gun violence more prominent in Texas.
I risultati della settimana 5 del 2024 National Latino Voter Tracking Poll rivelano importanti informazioni sulle preferenze degli elettori latini. Kamala Harris è in testa con il 60% di supporto, mentre Donald Trump ha il 35% di supporto. Tuttavia, Harris sta ottenendo risultati inferiori rispetto al supporto latino per Biden nel 2020. In particolare, gli elettori latini indipendenti si stanno spostando verso Trump, con il suo supporto che è passato dal 34% al 46% in tre settimane.
Il sondaggio evidenzia differenze significative tra gli elettori latini della California e del Texas. Harris ottiene risultati migliori in California (65% di supporto) rispetto al Texas (56%), mentre Trump ha una percentuale maggiore in Texas (39%) rispetto alla California (30%). L'economia rimane la principale preoccupazione per gli elettori latini in entrambi gli stati, con il costo della vita/inflazione considerato un problema importante dal 58% degli intervistati. Altri temi chiave variano tra gli stati, con i costi abitativi che occupano una posizione di rilievo in California e la violenza armata che è più prominente in Texas.
Los resultados de la semana 5 de la Encuesta Nacional de Seguimiento de Electores Latinos 2024 revelan información clave sobre las preferencias de los votantes latinos. Kamala Harris lidera con un 60% de apoyo, mientras que Donald Trump cuenta con un 35% de apoyo. Sin embargo, Harris está teniendo un rendimiento inferior comparado con el apoyo latino a Biden en 2020. Notablemente, los votantes latinos independientes se están inclinando hacia Trump, con su apoyo aumentando del 34% al 46% en tres semanas.
La encuesta destaca diferencias significativas entre los votantes latinos de California y Texas. Harris supera en California (65% de apoyo) frente a Texas (56%), mientras que Trump tiene una mayor proporción en Texas (39%) en comparación con California (30%). La economía sigue siendo la principal preocupación para los votantes latinos en ambos estados, siendo el costo de vida/inflación considerado un tema importante por el 58% de los encuestados. Otros temas clave varían entre estados, con los costos de vivienda siendo más destacados en California y la violencia armada más prominente en Texas.
2024년 전국 라틴계 유권자 추적 조사 5주차 결과는 라틴계 유권자의 선호도에 대한 주요 통찰력을 보여줍니다. 카말라 해리스는 60%의 지지를 얻고 있습니다, 반면 도널드 트럼프는 35%의 지지를 받고 있습니다. 그러나 해리스는 2020년 바이든에 대한 라틴계 지지에 비해 저조한 성과를 내고 있습니다. 특히, 독립적인 라틴계 유권자는 트럼프 쪽으로 이동하고 있습니다, 그의 지지는 3주 동안 34%에서 46%로 증가했습니다.
이번 설문조사는 캘리포니아와 텍사스의 라틴계 유권자 간의 유의미한 차이를 강조합니다. 해리스는 캘리포니아에서 (65% 지지) 텍사스 (56%)에 비해 더 나은 성과를 보이고, 트럼프는 텍사스에서 (39%) 캘리포니아 (30%)보다 더 높은 비율을 보입니다. 경제는 두 주의 라틴계 유권자들에게 가장 큰 우려사항으로 남아 있습니다, 생활비/물가 인상이 58%의 응답자에게 주요 문제로 평가되었습니다. 다른 주요 쟁점들은 주에 따라 차이를 보이며, 주택 비용은 캘리포니아에서 더 높은 순위를 차지하고 총기 폭력은 텍사스에서 더 두드러지게 나타납니다.
Les résultats de la semaine 5 du 2024 National Latino Voter Tracking Poll révèlent des informations clés sur les préférences des électeurs latinos. Kamala Harris est en tête avec 60% de soutien, tandis que Donald Trump compte 35% de soutien. Cependant, Harris réalise des performances inférieures par rapport au soutien latino pour Biden en 2020. Notamment, les électeurs latinos indépendants se tournent vers Trump, avec son soutien augmentant de 34% à 46% en trois semaines.
Le sondage met en lumière des différences significatives entre les électeurs latinos de Californie et du Texas. Harris surperforme en Californie (65% de soutien) par rapport au Texas (56%), tandis que Trump a une part plus élevée au Texas (39%) contre la Californie (30%). L'économie reste la principale préoccupation des électeurs latinos dans les deux États, avec le coût de la vie/l'inflation considéré comme un problème majeur par 58% des répondants. D'autres enjeux clés varient entre les États, avec les coûts du logement plus élevés en Californie et la violence armée plus marquée au Texas.
Die Ergebnisse der Woche 5 der 2024 National Latino Voter Tracking Poll liefern wichtige Einblicke in die Präferenzen der Latino-Wähler. Kamala Harris führt mit 60% Unterstützung, während Donald Trump 35% Unterstützung hat. Allerdings erzielt Harris im Vergleich zur Latino-Unterstützung für Biden im Jahr 2020 unterdurchschnittliche Ergebnisse. Auffällig ist, dass unabhängige Latino-Wähler sich stärker in Richtung Trump bewegen, wobei seine Unterstützung in drei Wochen von 34% auf 46% steigt.
Die Umfrage hebt signifikante Unterschiede zwischen den Latino-Wählern in Kalifornien und Texas hervor. Harris schneidet in Kalifornien (65% Unterstützung) besser ab als in Texas (56%), während Trump in Texas (39%) im Vergleich zu Kalifornien (30%) überproportional abschneidet. Die Wirtschaft bleibt das größte Anliegen für Latino-Wähler in beiden Bundesstaaten, wobei 58% der Befragten die Lebenshaltungskosten/Inflation als ein großes Problem bewerten. Andere wichtige Themen variieren zwischen den Bundesstaaten, wobei die Wohnkosten in Kalifornien höher eingestuft werden und Waffengewalt in Texas prominenter ist.
- Kamala Harris maintains a lead with 60% support among Latino voters
- The poll provides valuable insights into Latino voter preferences and concerns
- The economy is identified as a unifying concern for Latino voters across states
- Harris is underperforming with Latinos compared to Biden's 2020 support
- Independent Latino voters are shifting towards Trump, potentially impacting election outcomes
- Significant differences in voter preferences between California and Texas may complicate campaign strategies
Insights
The latest poll results reveal significant trends in Latino voter preferences, with potential implications for the 2024 presidential election. Key findings include:
- Kamala Harris maintains a lead with 60% support among Latino voters, but this is below Biden's 65% in 2020.
- Independent Latino voters are shifting towards Trump, with his support increasing from 34% to 46% over three weeks.
- Notable differences between California and Texas Latino voters, with Harris performing better in California (65%) compared to Texas (56%).
- The economy remains the top concern across both states, with cost of living/inflation rated as a major issue by 58% of Latino voters.
These trends suggest a potential narrowing of the Democratic advantage among Latino voters, particularly among independents. The focus on economic issues and state-specific concerns could play a important role in campaign strategies and voter outreach efforts. The underperformance of Harris compared to Biden's 2020 numbers may signal challenges for the Democratic ticket in maintaining strong Latino support.
The poll's emphasis on economic concerns among Latino voters is particularly noteworthy. With 58% of Latino voters in both California and Texas rating cost of living/inflation as a major issue, it's clear that economic factors are driving voter sentiment. This aligns with broader national trends of inflation concerns.
The prominence of jobs and the economy as the #2 issue in Texas and #3 in California further underscores the economic focus. These priorities could significantly influence campaign messaging and policy proposals. Candidates who effectively address these economic anxieties may gain an edge, especially among independent voters who seem to be shifting based on these concerns.
The state-specific economic issues, such as housing affordability in California, also highlight the need for tailored economic policies that resonate with local Latino communities. This nuanced approach to economic issues could be important in swaying voter preferences in key battleground states.
The poll reveals important demographic insights that could shape campaign strategies:
- The gap between Harris's current 60% support and Biden's 65% in 2020 suggests a potential erosion of Democratic support among Latinos.
- The shift of Independent Latino voters towards Trump (from 34% to 46%) is a significant trend that could impact close races.
- State-specific differences, such as Harris's 65% support in California vs. 56% in Texas, highlight the diversity within the Latino electorate.
- Issue priorities vary by state, with housing costs ranking #2 in California but only #6 in Texas, while gun violence and border issues are more prominent in Texas.
These findings underscore the importance of targeted outreach and messaging that addresses the specific concerns of Latino voters in different regions. Campaigns will need to balance national themes with localized approaches to effectively engage this diverse and increasingly influential voting bloc.
Week 5 of National Latino Voter Tracking Poll Highlights Economic Concerns and Key Differences Between California and Texas Voters
Key Findings from Week 5:
1. Presidential update: Virtually no movement on the surface
-
60% of Latino voters support Kamala Harris. Harris’ support has trended between59% and61% for the past 3 weeks. -
35% of Latino voters support Donald Trump. Trump’s support has trended between35% and36% for the past 3 weeks.
2. Although Harris leads, she trails Biden’s Latino support from this time in 2020
-
October 6-12, 2020, NALEO Latino Weekly Tracking Poll (Week 6)
-
68% of Latino voters supported Biden,23% supported Trump
-
-
Biden won
65% of the Latino vote in 2020 (CNN exit poll). At60% , Harris is underperforming with Latinos
3. Independent Latino voters are breaking for Trump
-
Intent to vote for “Independent/Other” Latino voters (neither Democrat nor Republican)
-
Week 3 (9/21-9/27): Harris
52% , Trump34% ,14% undecided -
Week 4 (9/28-10/4): Harris
45% , Trump38% ,17% undecided -
Week 5 (10/5-10/11): Harris
37% , Trump46% ,18% undecided
-
Week 3 (9/21-9/27): Harris
-
Net favorability (% favorable - % unfavorable)
- Week 3 (9/21-9/27): Harris +2, Trump -29
- Week 4 (9/28-10/4): Harris -5, Trump -24
- Week 5 (10/5-10/11): Harris -10, Trump -8
MAJOR LATINO STATES, DIFFERENT ELECTION LANDSCAPES
(Note: data points below reflect a combination of data from all weeks in the poll to date, covering 9/11/24-10/11/24)
4. Harris overperforms in
-
Intent to vote:
-
Harris:
59% Total,65% CA,56% TX -
Trump:
35% Total,30% CA,39% TX
-
Harris:
-
Net favorability (% favorable - % unfavorable)
- Harris: +27 Total, +35 CA, +22 TX
- Trump: -19 Total, -27 CA, -17 TX
5. The economy is a unifying concern for both
-
Cost of living/inflation is the #1 most important issue for Latino voters in both states, with
58% of Latino voters in both states rating this as a major issue. -
Jobs and the economy ranks as the #3 most important issue in
California , and the #2 issue inTexas . Just over a third of voters in both states view jobs and the economy as a concern.
6. Beyond the economy, key issues differ between the two states
-
Housing costs and affordability ranks as the #2 most important issue among California Latino voters (#6 in
Texas ) -
While abortion ranks in the top 5 in both states, Latino voters in
Texas are more likely to rate it as an important issue (28% in TX vs.23% for CA) -
Gun violence concerns are also elevated in
Texas , ranking as the state’s #4 issue.27% of Texas Latino voters consider it a major issue (vs.22% for CA) -
Other issues more likely to be on Texas Latino voters’ minds:
-
Health care costs (
26% in TX,16% in CA) -
Immigration reform for immigrants already here (
20% in TX,15% in CA) -
Issues at the US-Mexico border (
20% in TX,15% in CA)
-
Health care costs (
-
Homelessness is far more likely to be an issue in CA (
18% vs.7% in TX)
The 2024 National Latino Tracking Poll will run for eight weeks, with weekly updates released every Monday. Each week, 500 Latino voters from across the country are surveyed on their voting intentions, key issues, healthcare concerns, and candidate favorability. The poll offers valuable insight into the evolving priorities of Latino voters as Election Day approaches.
The 2024 National Latino Voter Tracking Poll topline report for Week 5 is available here.
For more information, please visit: entravision.com/political.
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Source: Entravision
FAQ
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