Latino Independent Voters Lean Toward Trump While Overall Voter Preferences Hold Steady

Rhea-AI Summary

The Week 5 results of the 2024 National Latino Voter Tracking Poll reveal key insights into Latino voter preferences. Kamala Harris leads with 60% support, while Donald Trump has 35% support. However, Harris is underperforming compared to Biden's 2020 Latino support. Notably, Independent Latino voters are shifting towards Trump, with his support increasing from 34% to 46% over three weeks.

The poll highlights significant differences between California and Texas Latino voters. Harris overperforms in California (65% support) compared to Texas (56%), while Trump over-indexes in Texas (39%) versus California (30%). The economy remains the top concern for Latino voters in both states, with cost of living/inflation rated as a major issue by 58% of respondents. Other key issues vary between states, with housing costs ranking higher in California and gun violence more prominent in Texas.

Positive

• Kamala Harris maintains a lead with 60% support among Latino voters
• The poll provides valuable insights into Latino voter preferences and concerns
• The economy is identified as a unifying concern for Latino voters across states

Negative

• Harris is underperforming with Latinos compared to Biden's 2020 support
• Independent Latino voters are shifting towards Trump, potentially impacting election outcomes
• Significant differences in voter preferences between California and Texas may complicate campaign strategies

Insights

Political Analyst

The latest poll results reveal significant trends in Latino voter preferences, with potential implications for the 2024 presidential election. Key findings include:

• Kamala Harris maintains a lead with 60% support among Latino voters, but this is below Biden's 65% in 2020.
• Independent Latino voters are shifting towards Trump, with his support increasing from 34% to 46% over three weeks.
• Notable differences between California and Texas Latino voters, with Harris performing better in California (65%) compared to Texas (56%).
• The economy remains the top concern across both states, with cost of living/inflation rated as a major issue by 58% of Latino voters.

These trends suggest a potential narrowing of the Democratic advantage among Latino voters, particularly among independents. The focus on economic issues and state-specific concerns could play a important role in campaign strategies and voter outreach efforts. The underperformance of Harris compared to Biden's 2020 numbers may signal challenges for the Democratic ticket in maintaining strong Latino support.

Economist

The poll's emphasis on economic concerns among Latino voters is particularly noteworthy. With 58% of Latino voters in both California and Texas rating cost of living/inflation as a major issue, it's clear that economic factors are driving voter sentiment. This aligns with broader national trends of inflation concerns.

The prominence of jobs and the economy as the #2 issue in Texas and #3 in California further underscores the economic focus. These priorities could significantly influence campaign messaging and policy proposals. Candidates who effectively address these economic anxieties may gain an edge, especially among independent voters who seem to be shifting based on these concerns.

The state-specific economic issues, such as housing affordability in California, also highlight the need for tailored economic policies that resonate with local Latino communities. This nuanced approach to economic issues could be important in swaying voter preferences in key battleground states.

Demographic Analyst

The poll reveals important demographic insights that could shape campaign strategies:

• The gap between Harris's current 60% support and Biden's 65% in 2020 suggests a potential erosion of Democratic support among Latinos.
• The shift of Independent Latino voters towards Trump (from 34% to 46%) is a significant trend that could impact close races.
• State-specific differences, such as Harris's 65% support in California vs. 56% in Texas, highlight the diversity within the Latino electorate.
• Issue priorities vary by state, with housing costs ranking #2 in California but only #6 in Texas, while gun violence and border issues are more prominent in Texas.

These findings underscore the importance of targeted outreach and messaging that addresses the specific concerns of Latino voters in different regions. Campaigns will need to balance national themes with localized approaches to effectively engage this diverse and increasingly influential voting bloc.

Week 5 of National Latino Voter Tracking Poll Highlights Economic Concerns and Key Differences Between California and Texas Voters

SANTA MONICA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Entravision, AltaMed, and BSP Research have unveiled the Week 5 results of the 2024 National Latino Voter Tracking Poll, offering valuable insights into the preferences of Latino voters. While Kamala Harris leads with 60% support, Independent voters are breaking for Donald Trump, and key differences emerge between Latino voters in California and Texas. The economy remains the top concern for voters across both states.

Key Findings from Week 5:

1. Presidential update: Virtually no movement on the surface

• 60% of Latino voters support Kamala Harris. Harris’ support has trended between 59% and 61% for the past 3 weeks.
• 35% of Latino voters support Donald Trump. Trump’s support has trended between 35% and 36% for the past 3 weeks.

2. Although Harris leads, she trails Biden’s Latino support from this time in 2020

• October 6-12, 2020, NALEO Latino Weekly Tracking Poll (Week 6)
  • 68% of Latino voters supported Biden, 23% supported Trump
• Biden won 65% of the Latino vote in 2020 (CNN exit poll). At 60%, Harris is underperforming with Latinos

3. Independent Latino voters are breaking for Trump

• Intent to vote for “Independent/Other” Latino voters (neither Democrat nor Republican)
  • Week 3 (9/21-9/27): Harris 52%, Trump 34%, 14% undecided
  • Week 4 (9/28-10/4): Harris 45%, Trump 38%, 17% undecided
  • Week 5 (10/5-10/11): Harris 37%, Trump 46%, 18% undecided
• Net favorability (% favorable - % unfavorable)
  • Week 3 (9/21-9/27): Harris +2, Trump -29
  • Week 4 (9/28-10/4): Harris -5, Trump -24
  • Week 5 (10/5-10/11): Harris -10, Trump -8

CALIFORNIA VS. TEXAS SPOTLIGHT:
MAJOR LATINO STATES, DIFFERENT ELECTION LANDSCAPES
(Note: data points below reflect a combination of data from all weeks in the poll to date, covering 9/11/24-10/11/24)

4. Harris overperforms in California, while Trump over-indexes in Texas

• Intent to vote:
  • Harris: 59% Total, 65% CA, 56% TX
  • Trump: 35% Total, 30% CA, 39% TX
• Net favorability (% favorable - % unfavorable)
  • Harris: +27 Total, +35 CA, +22 TX
  • Trump: -19 Total, -27 CA, -17 TX

5. The economy is a unifying concern for both California and Texas Latino voters

• Cost of living/inflation is the #1 most important issue for Latino voters in both states, with 58% of Latino voters in both states rating this as a major issue.
• Jobs and the economy ranks as the #3 most important issue in California, and the #2 issue in Texas. Just over a third of voters in both states view jobs and the economy as a concern.

6. Beyond the economy, key issues differ between the two states

• Housing costs and affordability ranks as the #2 most important issue among California Latino voters (#6 in Texas)
• While abortion ranks in the top 5 in both states, Latino voters in Texas are more likely to rate it as an important issue (28% in TX vs. 23% for CA)
• Gun violence concerns are also elevated in Texas, ranking as the state’s #4 issue. 27% of Texas Latino voters consider it a major issue (vs. 22% for CA)
• Other issues more likely to be on Texas Latino voters’ minds:
  • Health care costs (26% in TX, 16% in CA)
  • Immigration reform for immigrants already here (20% in TX, 15% in CA)
  • Issues at the US-Mexico border (20% in TX, 15% in CA)
• Homelessness is far more likely to be an issue in CA (18% vs. 7% in TX)

The 2024 National Latino Tracking Poll will run for eight weeks, with weekly updates released every Monday. Each week, 500 Latino voters from across the country are surveyed on their voting intentions, key issues, healthcare concerns, and candidate favorability. The poll offers valuable insight into the evolving priorities of Latino voters as Election Day approaches.

The 2024 National Latino Voter Tracking Poll topline report for Week 5 is available here.

For more information, please visit: entravision.com/political.

About Entravision Communications Corporation

Entravision (NYSE: EVC) (Category: Political) is a media and advertising technology company. Our broadcast properties include the largest television affiliate group of the Univision and UniMás television networks and one of the largest groups of primarily Spanish-language radio stations in the United States, providing our customers with substantial access and engagement opportunities in the top U.S. Hispanic markets. Smadex, our programmatic ad purchasing platform enables customers, primarily mobile app developers, to purchase advertising electronically and manage data-driven advertising campaigns. Learn more about our offerings at entravision.com.

About AltaMed Health Services

AltaMed understands that when people have health care that looks at their individual health needs and respects their cultural preferences; they grow healthy—and help their families do the same. So we’re delivering complete medical services to communities across Southern California. Since 1969, our team of qualified multicultural and bilingual professionals—from these same communities—has focused on eliminating barriers to primary care services, senior care programs, and even essential community services. With more than 60 accredited health centers and service facilities, we remain committed and ready to help you grow healthy at any age.

About AltaMed Health Services My Vote. My Health.

My Vote. My Health. is a campaign led by AltaMed Health Services, one of the nation’s largest federally qualified community health centers, to mobilize patients, families and residents in our Southern California service areas to address the social and political determinants of health. My Vote. My Health. partners with other community healthcare providers and local civic engagement organizations to help increase Latino civic participation to improve the quality of life of underserved and underrepresented communities locally and across California.

About BSP Research

BSP Research is a Latino-owned polling, research and analytics firm headquartered in Los Angeles, California, and directed by four PhD-holding political scientists.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241014062033/en/

Media Contact:

Marcelo Gaete, EVP, Public and Government Relations, Entravision

mgaete@entravision.com

Christina Sanchez, Vice President, Public Affairs, AltaMed

chsanchez@altamed.org

Source: Entravision

FAQ

What are the current voting intentions of Latino voters according to the Week 5 poll for EVC?

According to the Week 5 poll, 60% of Latino voters support Kamala Harris, while 35% support Donald Trump.

How are Independent Latino voters trending in their support for Trump and Harris in the EVC poll?

Independent Latino voters are shifting towards Trump, with his support increasing from 34% in Week 3 to 46% in Week 5, while Harris' support decreased from 52% to 37% over the same period.

What is the top concern for Latino voters in California and Texas according to the EVC poll?

The top concern for Latino voters in both California and Texas is cost of living/inflation, with 58% of Latino voters in both states rating this as a major issue.

How does Latino voter support for Harris and Trump differ between California and Texas in the EVC poll?

In California, Harris has 65% support compared to Trump's 30%, while in Texas, Harris has 56% support and Trump has 39% support.