Farmer sentiment declines in April amid input costs and availability concerns

Rhea-AI Summary

Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer (CME) fell to 121 in April from 127 in March, reflecting weaker current conditions and lower future expectations. The Farm Capital Investment Index dropped 9 points to 44, the lowest since October 2024. Two-thirds expect reduced farm net income in 2026.

Survey of 400 farmers (April 13–17) shows concerns about rising input costs, fertilizer availability, and global uncertainty; corn break-even prices largely expected to rise in 2026.

Positive

• 58% report lower per-unit fixed costs than most efficient peers
• 25% expect better financial performance year ahead

Negative

• Ag Economy Barometer declined to 121 from 127
• Farm Capital Investment Index fell 9 points to 44, lowest since Oct 2024
• About 66% expect reduced farm net income in 2026
• Farmland value expectations weakened: short-term 125→121, long-term 159→155

Key Figures

Ag Economy Barometer: 121 Current conditions drop: 11 points Future expectations gap: 28 points +5 more

8 metrics

Ag Economy Barometer 121 April 2026 reading, down from 127 in March

Current conditions drop 11 points Decline in current conditions component vs March

Future expectations gap 28 points Below April 2025 future expectations index

Survey sample size 400 farmers National survey conducted April 13–17, 2026

Improved financial conditions 15% Producers reporting better conditions vs year‑ago period

Expect worse performance 28% Respondents expecting worse financial performance in year ahead

Farm Capital Investment Index 44 April 2026 level, lowest since October 2024

Right direction view 57% Producers saying U.S. economy headed in right direction, down from 65%

Market Reality Check

Price: $286.82 Vol: Volume at 1,693,217 share...

normal vol

$286.82 Last Close

Volume Volume at 1,693,217 shares is below the 20-day average of 2,426,227, suggesting muted pre-news trading interest. normal

Technical Price at $290.29 is trading above the 200-day moving average of $281.75 and about 11.81% below the 52-week high of $329.16.

Peers on Argus

CME was up 0.26% pre-news, while key peers like ICE, COIN, NDAQ and SPGI also sh...

CME was up 0.26% pre-news, while key peers like ICE, COIN, NDAQ and SPGI also showed gains and MCO declined. With no peers in the momentum scanner and mixed moves, trading appeared more stock- and idiosyncratic-news driven than part of a broad sector rotation.

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Apr 22 (Positive)

Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Apr 22	Earnings results	Positive	-1.3%	Record Q1 2026 revenue, earnings and volumes across key product lines.
Apr 16	Regulatory approval	Positive	-0.2%	Regulatory approvals to expand U.S. Treasury cross‑margining to end‑user accounts.
Apr 16	Regulatory recognition	Positive	-0.2%	ESMA recognition of CME benchmark administration enabling continued EU use.
Apr 15	Product expansion	Positive	-0.0%	Expansion of Equity Index Dividend suite with new options and futures.
Apr 14	Product launch	Positive	-1.2%	Announcement of options on Eris SOFR Swap futures to enhance rate hedging.

Pattern Detected

Recent positive operational and regulatory news has often seen flat to negative next-day price reactions, indicating a tendency for good news to be met with muted or contrarian trading.

Recent Company History

Over the last few weeks, CME reported record Q1 2026 financial results, expanded cross‑margining for U.S. Treasuries, gained ESMA benchmark recognition, and announced new equity index dividend and Eris SOFR swap options products. Despite these positive developments, 24‑hour price reactions ranged from slightly negative to flat, suggesting investors had largely priced in strength or reacted cautiously to growth and product expansion headlines relative to the agricultural and rates backdrop.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement highlights softer farmer sentiment and lower willingness to invest, with the Ag Ec...

Analysis

This announcement highlights softer farmer sentiment and lower willingness to invest, with the Ag Economy Barometer at 121 and the Farm Capital Investment Index at 44. For CME, these readings provide macro context for agricultural hedging demand rather than a direct company‑specific catalyst. Recent history shows record Q1 2026 results and multiple product and regulatory milestones, so investors may watch how ag futures volumes and risk‑management activity evolve against this more cautious farm outlook.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind., May 5, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Farmer sentiment fell in April as concerns about rising input costs, tighter availability and global instability continued to weigh on the agricultural outlook. The April Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer dropped to 121, down from 127 in March. The decline was also driven by a decrease in confidence about current conditions, which dropped by 11 points, while producers' expectations for the future fell 4 points from the March survey and were 28 points below last year's April index. The survey was conducted among 400 farmers across the nation from April 13-17. 

Only 15% of producers indicated that financial conditions improved in April compared to the same period last year. When looking at the year ahead, 28% of respondents cited expectations of worse financial performance, compared with 25% expecting better financial performance. The Farm Capital Investment Index also fell by 9 points to 44, its lowest level since October 2024, indicating a decline in willingness to make large investments.

April's survey also examined the impact of current events on farm income and corn break-even prices in 2026. Approximately two-thirds of respondents expect to reduce their farm's net income in 2026. Among producers who planted corn in 2025, about half expect corn break-even prices to increase by up to 6% in 2026, 14% expect increases of 6% to 9%, and 37% anticipate increases of 10% or more.

"Producers are still under pressure from high input costs, and this month we observed a slight rise in concerns about fertilizer availability," said Michael Langemeier, the barometer's principal investigator and director of Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture. "Simultaneously, the impact of current events on fertilizer and energy markets increases global uncertainty, adding to the existing difficulties farmers face as they plan for the future."

The monthly survey occasionally asks about a farm's competitive standing and its capacity to manage strategic risks. This month's survey included a question on farm competitiveness and cost structure. Approximately 58% of respondents agreed that their operations have lower per-unit fixed costs than their most efficient peers, including 9% who strongly agreed.

Farmland value expectations weakened in April, with the Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index declining from 125 to 121 and the Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index declining from 159 to 155. Producers identified alternative investments, interest rates and inflation as the primary factors influencing farmland values.

Optimism about the direction of the U.S. economy also declined, with 57% of producers indicating the country is headed in the "right direction," down from 65% in March.

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture

The Center for Commercial Agriculture was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University's Department of Agricultural Economics, the center's faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today's business environment.

About CME Group

As the world's leading derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com) enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data – empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, cryptocurrencies, energy, agricultural products and metals. The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates one of the world's leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing.

CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec is a trademark of BrokerTec Americas LLC and EBS is a trademark of EBS Group LTD. The S&P 500 Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC ("S&P DJI"). "S&P®", "S&P 500®", "SPY®", "SPX®", US 500 and The 500 are trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC; Dow Jones®, DJIA® and Dow Jones Industrial Average are service and/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. These trademarks have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. Futures contracts based on the S&P 500 Index are not sponsored, endorsed, marketed, or promoted by S&P DJI, and S&P DJI makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

About Purdue University

Purdue University is a public research university leading with excellence at scale. Ranked among top 10 public universities in the United States, Purdue discovers, disseminates and deploys knowledge with a quality and at a scale second to none. More than 106,000 students study at Purdue across multiple campuses, locations and modalities, including more than 57,000 at our main campus locations in West Lafayette and Indianapolis. Committed to affordability and accessibility, Purdue's main campus has frozen tuition 14 years in a row. See how Purdue never stops in the persistent pursuit of the next giant leap — including its integrated, comprehensive Indianapolis urban expansion; the Mitch Daniels School of Business; Purdue Computes; and the One Health initiative — at https://www.purdue.edu/president/strategic-initiatives.

Source: Michael Langemeier, mlangeme@purdue.edu, 765-494-9557

CME-G

 

View original content:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/farmer-sentiment-declines-in-april-amid-input-costs-and-availability-concerns-302762518.html

SOURCE CME Group

FAQ

What did the Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer report for April 2026 (CME)?

The barometer fell to 121 in April 2026, down from 127 in March. According to Purdue University/CME Group, the decline reflects weaker current conditions and lower future expectations from surveyed producers.

How did farm investment sentiment change in April 2026 for CME investors?

The Farm Capital Investment Index dropped to 44, a 9-point decline to its lowest since October 2024. According to Purdue University/CME Group, this signals reduced willingness to make large capital investments.

What do farmers surveyed by Purdue/CME expect for farm net income in 2026 (CME)?

Approximately two-thirds of respondents expect reduced net income in 2026. According to Purdue University/CME Group, rising input costs and global uncertainty are primary factors behind those expectations.

What did the April survey say about expected corn break-even price changes for 2026 (CME)?

About 50% expect up to a 6% increase, 14% expect 6–9% increases, and 37% expect increases of 10% or more. According to Purdue University/CME Group, producers broadly anticipate higher break-even corn prices.

How did farmland value expectations move in April 2026 according to Purdue/CME (CME)?

Short-term farmland expectations fell from 125 to 121, and long-term expectations fell from 159 to 155. According to Purdue University/CME Group, interest rates, inflation, and alternative investments are driving expectations.