Omdia: panel makers increase fab utilization plans by three consecutive months and maintain 80% utilization rate in 1Q 2025
Display panel manufacturers have shown consistent increases in fab utilization plans during Q4 2024, reaching 77% by November and rising to 79% by December's end. Plans for Q1 2025 have been further revised upward to 80% utilization, with January 2025 seeing a notable six percentage point increase.
The surge is primarily driven by increased demand for special TV panels, stimulated by China's 'Swap Old for New' subsidy program. Additionally, anticipated tariff risks under the new US administration have temporarily boosted LCD TV panel demand, with Chinese TV makers increasing inventories in Mexico for US market shipments.
Major Chinese panel makers like BOE, China Star, and HKC Display are leading this trend. Some facilities have even cancelled planned Lunar New Year holidays to maintain high utilization rates, though manufacturers remain cautious about long-term demand trends.
I produttori di pannelli di visualizzazione hanno mostrato incrementi costanti nei piani di utilizzo dei fab durante il Q4 2024, raggiungendo il 77% a novembre e aumentando fino al 79% entro la fine di dicembre. I piani per il Q1 2025 sono stati ulteriormente riveduti al rialzo per un utilizzo dell'80%, con gennaio 2025 che ha registrato un notevole incremento di sei punti percentuali.
Il picco è principalmente guidato dall'aumento della domanda per pannelli TV speciali, stimolato dal programma di sussidi 'Cambio Vecchio con Nuovo' della Cina. Inoltre, i rischi tariffari previsti sotto la nuova amministrazione statunitense hanno temporaneamente aumentato la domanda di pannelli TV LCD, con i produttori di TV cinesi che aumentano le scorte in Messico per le spedizioni sul mercato statunitense.
I principali produttori cinesi di pannelli come BOE, China Star e HKC Display sono i leader di questa tendenza. Alcuni impianti hanno persino cancellato le ferie programmate per il Capodanno Lunare per mantenere alti tassi di utilizzo, anche se i produttori rimangono cauti riguardo alle tendenze della domanda a lungo termine.
Los fabricantes de paneles de visualización han mostrado incrementos constantes en los planes de utilización de fábricas durante el cuarto trimestre de 2024, alcanzando el 77% en noviembre y subiendo al 79% al final de diciembre. Los planes para el primer trimestre de 2025 se han revisado al alza hasta un 80% de utilización, con enero de 2025 registrando un notable aumento de seis puntos porcentuales.
Este aumento se debe principalmente a la mayor demanda de paneles de televisión especiales, estimulada por el programa de subsidios de China 'Cambia Viejo por Nuevo'. Además, los riesgos arancelarios anticipados bajo la nueva administración estadounidense han incrementado temporalmente la demanda de paneles LCD para televisores, con los fabricantes de televisores chinos aumentando las reservas en México para los envíos al mercado estadounidense.
Los principales fabricantes chinos de paneles como BOE, China Star y HKC Display están liderando esta tendencia. Algunas instalaciones incluso han cancelado las vacaciones programadas para el Año Nuevo Lunar para mantener altas tasas de utilización, aunque los fabricantes permanecen cautelosos sobre las tendencias de demanda a largo plazo.
디스플레이 패널 제조업체들은 2024년 4분기 동안 가동률 계획에서 일관된 증가를 보여주었으며, 11월에는 77%에 도달하고 12월 말에는 79%로 상승했습니다. 2025년 1분기에 대한 계획은 80% 가동률로 추가 상향 조정되었으며, 2025년 1월에는 6% 포인트의 눈에 띄는 증가가 있었습니다.
이 급증은 주로 중국의 '구형제품 교환' 보조금 프로그램에 의해 자극된 특별 TV 패널에 대한 수요 증가에 의해 촉진되었습니다. 또한, 새로운 미국 정부 하의 예상 관세 위험이 LCD TV 패널에 대한 수요를 일시적으로 증가시켰으며, 중국 TV 제조업체들은 미국 시장 배송을 위해 멕시코에 재고를 늘리고 있습니다.
BOE, China Star 및 HKC Display와 같은 주요 중국 패널 제조업체들이 이 추세를 이끌고 있습니다. 일부 시설은 높은 가동률을 유지하기 위해 계획된 설날 휴가를 취소하기도 했지만, 제조업체들은 장기적인 수요 추세에 대해 조심스럽습니다.
Les fabricants de panneaux d'affichage ont montré des augmentations constantes dans leurs plans d'utilisation des usines au cours du quatrième trimestre 2024, atteignant 77 % en novembre et grimpant à 79 % d'ici la fin décembre. Les prévisions pour le premier trimestre 2025 ont été révisées à la hausse pour atteindre 80 % d'utilisation, avec janvier 2025 enregistrant une augmentation notable de six points de pourcentage.
Cette hausse est principalement motivée par une demande accrue pour des panneaux de télévision spéciaux, stimulée par le programme de subventions chinois 'Échangez l'ancien contre le nouveau'. De plus, les risques tarifaires anticipés sous la nouvelle administration américaine ont temporairement boosté la demande de panneaux de télévision LCD, les fabricants de télévision chinois augmentant leurs stocks au Mexique pour les envois vers le marché américain.
Les principaux fabricants chinois de panneaux tels que BOE, China Star et HKC Display sont à la tête de cette tendance. Certains établissements ont même annulé les congés prévus pour le Nouvel An lunaire afin de maintenir des taux d'utilisation élevés, bien que les fabricants demeurent prudents quant aux tendances de la demande à long terme.
Display-Panel-Hersteller haben im vierten Quartal 2024 weiterhin steigende Pläne zur Fabrikauslastung gezeigt, die bis November 77% erreichen und bis Ende Dezember auf 79% steigen. Die Pläne für das erste Quartal 2025 wurden weiter nach oben revidiert auf 80% Auslastung, wobei der Januar 2025 einen bemerkenswerten Anstieg um sechs Prozentpunkte verzeichnete.
Der Anstieg wird hauptsächlich durch die gestiegene Nachfrage nach speziellen TV-Panels angetrieben, die durch Chinas Programm 'Alte gegen Neue umtauschen' angeregt wurde. Darüber hinaus haben die erwarteten Tarifrisiken unter der neuen US-Administration die Nachfrage nach LCD-TV-Panels vorübergehend angekurbelt, wobei chinesische TV-Hersteller ihre Bestände in Mexiko für den Versand auf den US-Markt erhöhen.
Wichtige chinesische Panel-Hersteller wie BOE, China Star und HKC Display führen diesen Trend an. Einige Anlagen haben sogar geplante Feiertage zum chinesischen Neujahr abgesagt, um hohe Auslastungsraten aufrechtzuerhalten, obwohl die Hersteller hinsichtlich der langfristigen Nachfrageentwicklung vorsichtig bleiben.
- Fab utilization rates increased from 77% to 79% in Q4 2024, with further increase to 80% planned for Q1 2025
- Strong demand growth driven by Chinese government's subsidy program
- Increased inventory building in Mexico for US market shipments
- Expected price hikes for LCD TV panels in H1 2025
- Risk of component shortages, particularly driver ICs and polarizers
- Uncertainty in mid to long-term demand trends
- Potential impact from new US tariff risks
Insights
The display panel industry is experiencing a notable uptick driven by multiple catalysts. The increased fab utilization to
The Chinese government's 'Swap Old for New' subsidy program is creating artificial demand inflation, primarily benefiting domestic players like BOE, China Star and HKC Display. This policy-driven stimulus could create a temporary bubble in the LCD TV panel market.
Geopolitical tensions and anticipated US tariffs are causing a strategic inventory build-up in Mexico, creating a short-term demand surge that may not be sustainable. This rush to secure inventory is causing ripple effects across the supply chain, particularly in component availability.
The decision by Chinese manufacturers to cancel Lunar New Year holidays to maintain high utilization rates suggests aggressive market share capture strategies, but also raises concerns about potential oversupply once the current demand surge subsides.
In simple terms: Think of this like a pressure cooker - multiple factors are building up pressure (demand) in the short term, but there's a risk of rapid decompression once these temporary factors dissipate. For investors, this suggests a potential short-term trading opportunity but requires careful monitoring of the eventual cool-down phase.
The current situation in the display panel market presents a complex supply chain scenario with several critical implications. The spike in component demands, particularly for driver ICs and polarizers, could create a bottleneck effect that ripples through the entire supply chain. This is especially concerning for IT LCD manufacturing.
The strategic shift in inventory positioning to Mexico represents a significant supply chain reconfiguration, motivated by tariff avoidance strategies. This geographical redistribution of inventory could impact lead times and logistics costs, potentially affecting margins across the industry.
What's particularly noteworthy is the tension between short-term opportunistic production increases and long-term sustainable capacity planning. The cancellation of traditional holiday shutdowns is a radical departure from normal operating procedures, indicating how seriously manufacturers are taking this demand surge.
For the average person: Imagine a highway suddenly getting more traffic because of a temporary road closure elsewhere. While more cars are using the road now, it doesn't necessarily mean we need to build more lanes - once the other road reopens, traffic will likely return to normal levels. This is similar to what's happening in the display panel market.
"The upward revision of fab utilization plans is mainly driven by increased demand for special TV panels spurred by Chinese government's 'Swap Old for New' subsidy program, which is yet to be fully realized. Leading China TV makers are positioning themselves to capture greater market share during this surge in demand by securing additional TV panels." said Alex Kang, Principal Analyst of Omdia.
"The anticipated tariff risks under the newly elected US government have temporarily driven up demand for LCD TV panels, impacting panel makers' fab utilization plans. Some China TV makers are increasing their TV inventories in
The upward revision of panel makers' fab utilization plans has been led primarily by major Chinese panel makers, such as BOE, China Star, and HKC Display. These panel makers are more significantly impacted by the Chinese government's subsidy program due to their higher share of LCD TV panel production and supply to China TV makers.
Initially, Chinese panel makers had considered taking the two-week holidays during Lunar New Year at the end of January 2025 and reduce LCD TV panel production to maintain bargaining power over panel pricing. However, with increased panel demand and expected price hikes for LCD TV panels in the first half of 2025, some fabs have cancelled the holiday plans entirely, opting instead to sustain high utilization rates.
"Despite the current pull-in demand and strong utilization rates, panel makers remain cautious about mid to long-term demand trends. They may revert to production-to-order strategies once this demand surge subsides," concluded Kang.
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FAQ
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