TrueCar Releases Analysis of September and Third Quarter Industry Sales

Rhea-AI Summary

TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) forecasts new vehicle industry sales in September 2022 to hit 1,140,659 units, reflecting a 13% increase compared to last year. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) is estimated at 13.4 million, a 9% year-over-year uptick. Retail deliveries are expected to rise by 8%, while used vehicle sales are projected to decline by 11%. The average interest rate for new vehicles is noted at 5.9%. Industry analysts highlight affordability challenges due to rising rates, impacting consumer behavior and potential sales incentives.

Positive

• Total new vehicle sales expected to rise 13% year-over-year.
• SAAR estimated at 13.4 million, an increase of 9% from September 2021.
• Retail deliveries of new vehicles projected to grow by 8% compared to last year.

Negative

• Used vehicle sales anticipated to decrease by 11% year-over-year.
• Average interest rate on new vehicles increased to 5.9%, raising affordability concerns.

Interest rates pose a challenge to consumers, but overall industry remains steady 

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Sept. 29, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,140,659 units in September 2022, up 13% from a year ago and up 3% from August 2022, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 13.4 million, up 9% from September 2021. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 987,378 units, up 8% from a year ago and up about 3% from August 2022.

"With increasing interest rates, affordability is being tested," said Zack Krelle, Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "We're seeing consumers faced with the reality that to afford the same vehicle at the same monthly payment as last year, they are forced to increase their down payment, which is creating new affordability challenges. We are paying close attention to how the industry will react to these concerns. Perhaps there will be more incentives, longer finance terms, or a combination of these."

"This month we're seeing Honda, Nissan and General Motors gaining traction from previous months' sales," said Justin Colon, Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar. "GM has been able to capitalize on other OEMs' inability to deliver vehicles."

Additional September and Third Quarter Industry Insights (from TrueCar):

• Total sales for September 2022 are expected to be up 13% from a year ago when inventory levels were at their lowest and up 3% from August 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Fleet sales for September 2022 are expected to be up 57% from a year ago and up 5% from August 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Incentive spend is down 54% from last year and down 2% from August 2022.
• Average transaction price for new vehicles is projected to be up 6% from a year ago and slightly down from August 2022.
• Total SAAR is expected to be up 9% from a year ago at 13.4 million units.
• Used vehicle sales for September 2022 are expected to reach 3 million, down 11% from a year ago and down 4% from August 2022. 
• The average interest rate on new vehicles is 5.9% compared to August 2022 at 5.8% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 9%.
• The average loan term on a new vehicle for September 2022 is about 70 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is 71 months.
• Quarterly average transaction price is projected to be up 9% from a year ago and up 1% from Q2 2022.
• Quarterly incentive spend is down 55% from Q3 2021.

 

Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Sep 2022 Forecast	Sep 2021 Actual	Aug 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	27,305	26,031	28,360	4.9 %	4.9 %	-3.7 %	0.1 %
Daimler	23,990	18,419	27,470	30.2 %	30.2 %	-12.7 %	-9.2 %
Ford	150,193	155,384	157,062	-3.3 %	-3.3 %	-4.4 %	-0.5 %
GM	193,391	111,046	187,277	74.2 %	74.2 %	3.3 %	7.4 %
Honda	81,035	95,716	71,461	-15.3 %	-15.3 %	13.4 %	17.9 %
Hyundai	66,567	58,667	69,437	13.5 %	13.5 %	-4.1 %	-0.3 %
Kia	63,752	52,906	66,089	20.5 %	20.5 %	-3.5 %	0.3 %
Nissan	52,068	51,182	50,151	1.7 %	1.7 %	3.8 %	8.0 %
Stellantis	126,277	130,926	127,120	-3.6 %	-3.6 %	-0.7 %	3.3 %
Subaru	49,703	42,054	50,126	18.2 %	18.2 %	-0.8 %	3.1 %
Tesla	42,959	26,291	42,837	63.4 %	63.4 %	0.3 %	4.3 %
Toyota	167,716	151,378	172,885	10.8 %	10.8 %	-3.0 %	0.9 %
Volkswagen Group	51,216	38,821	53,702	31.9 %	31.9 %	-4.6 %	-0.8 %
Industry	1,140,659	1,007,229	1,151,339	13.2 %	13.2 %	-0.9 %	3.0 %

 

Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Sep 2022 Forecast	Sep 2021 Actual	Aug 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	24,884	24,799	26,025	0.3 %	0.3 %	-4.4 %	-0.6 %
Daimler	22,060	16,803	25,653	31.3 %	31.3 %	-14.0 %	-10.6 %
Ford	107,036	120,881	117,631	-11.5 %	-11.5 %	-9.0 %	-5.4 %
GM	161,052	100,341	154,859	60.5 %	60.5 %	4.0 %	8.2 %
Honda	78,972	95,224	69,470	-17.1 %	-17.1 %	13.7 %	18.2 %
Hyundai	64,998	57,907	68,676	12.2 %	12.2 %	-5.4 %	-1.6 %
Kia	61,789	49,662	63,890	24.4 %	24.4 %	-3.3 %	0.6 %
Nissan	44,924	45,547	41,103	-1.4 %	-1.4 %	9.3 %	13.7 %
Stellantis	97,951	106,818	101,663	-8.3 %	-8.3 %	-3.7 %	0.2 %
Subaru	48,702	41,205	48,837	18.2 %	18.2 %	-0.3 %	3.7 %
Tesla	36,881	26,291	35,893	40.3 %	40.3 %	2.8 %	6.9 %
Toyota	152,926	141,844	155,038	7.8 %	7.8 %	-1.4 %	2.6 %
Volkswagen Group	46,513	38,176	49,171	21.8 %	21.8 %	-5.4 %	-1.6 %
Industry	987,378	911,283	999,613	8.4 %	8.4 %	-1.2 %	2.7 %

 

Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Sep 2022 Forecast	Sep 2021 Actual	Aug 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	2,421	1,232	2,335	96.5 %	96.5 %	3.7 %	7.9 %
Daimler	1,930	1,616	1,817	19.4 %	19.4 %	6.2 %	10.5 %
Ford	43,157	34,503	39,431	25.1 %	25.1 %	9.4 %	13.8 %
GM	32,339	10,705	32,418	202.1 %	202.1 %	-0.2 %	3.7 %
Honda	2,063	492	1,991	319.1 %	319.1 %	3.6 %	7.8 %
Hyundai	1,569	760	761	106.5 %	106.5 %	106.1 %	114.4 %
Kia	1,963	3,244	2,199	-39.5 %	-39.5 %	-10.7 %	-7.1 %
Nissan	7,144	5,635	9,048	26.8 %	26.8 %	-21.0 %	-17.9 %
Stellantis	28,326	24,108	25,457	17.5 %	17.5 %	11.3 %	15.7 %
Subaru	1,001	849	1,289	17.9 %	17.9 %	-22.3 %	-19.2 %
Tesla	6,078	-	6,944			-12.5 %	-9.0 %
Toyota	14,790	9,534	17,847	55.1 %	55.1 %	-17.1 %	-13.8 %
Volkswagen Group	4,703	645	4,531	629.1 %	629.1 %	3.8 %	7.9 %
Industry	150,348	95,748	148,793	57.0 %	57.0 %	1.0 %	5.1 %

 

Fleet Penetration
Manufacturer	Sep 2022 Forecast	Sep 2021 Actual	Aug 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	MoM % Change
BMW	8.9 %	4.7 %	8.2 %	87.3 %	7.7 %
Daimler	8.0 %	8.8 %	6.6 %	-8.3 %	21.6 %
Ford	28.7 %	22.2 %	25.1 %	29.4 %	14.5 %
GM	16.7 %	9.6 %	17.3 %	73.5 %	-3.4 %
Honda	2.5 %	0.5 %	2.8 %	395.0 %	-8.6 %
Hyundai	2.4 %	1.3 %	1.1 %	82.0 %	115.0 %
Kia	3.1 %	6.1 %	3.3 %	-49.8 %	-7.4 %
Nissan	13.7 %	11.0 %	18.0 %	24.6 %	-23.9 %
Stellantis	22.4 %	18.4 %	20.0 %	21.8 %	12.0 %
Subaru	2.0 %	2.0 %	2.6 %	-0.2 %	-21.7 %
Tesla	14.1 %	0.0 %	16.2 %		-12.7 %
Toyota	8.8 %	6.3 %	10.3 %	40.0 %	-14.6 %
Volkswagen Group	9.2 %	1.7 %	8.4 %	452.7 %	8.8 %
Industry	13.2 %	9.5 %	12.9 %	38.7 %	2.0 %

 

Total Market Share
Manufacturer	Sep 2022 Forecast	Sep 2021 Actual	Aug 2022 Actual
BMW	2.4 %	2.6 %	2.5 %
Daimler	2.1 %	1.8 %	2.4 %
Ford	13.2 %	15.4 %	13.6 %
GM	17.0 %	11.0 %	16.3 %
Honda	7.1 %	9.5 %	6.2 %
Hyundai	5.8 %	5.8 %	6.0 %
Kia	5.6 %	5.3 %	5.7 %
Nissan	4.6 %	5.1 %	4.4 %
Stellantis	11.1 %	13.0 %	11.0 %
Subaru	4.4 %	4.2 %	4.4 %
Tesla	3.8 %	2.6 %	3.7 %
Toyota	14.7 %	15.0 %	15.0 %
Volkswagen Group	4.5 %	3.9 %	4.7 %
	96.1 %	95.2 %	95.9 %

 

Retail Market Share
Manufacturer	Sep 2022 Forecast	Sep 2021 Actual	Aug 2022 Actual
BMW	2.5 %	2.7 %	2.6 %
Daimler	2.2 %	1.8 %	2.6 %
Ford	10.8 %	13.3 %	11.8 %
GM	16.3 %	11.0 %	15.5 %
Honda	8.0 %	10.4 %	6.9 %
Hyundai	6.6 %	6.4 %	6.9 %
Kia	6.3 %	5.4 %	6.4 %
Nissan	4.5 %	5.0 %	4.1 %
Stellantis	9.9 %	11.7 %	10.2 %
Subaru	4.9 %	4.5 %	4.9 %
Tesla	3.7 %	2.9 %	3.6 %
Toyota	15.5 %	15.6 %	15.5 %
Volkswagen Group	4.7 %	4.2 %	4.9 %
	96.1 %	95.0 %	95.8 %

 

ATP
Manufacturer	Sep 2022 Forecast	Sep 2021 Actual	Aug 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$69,596	$62,593	$66,227	11.2 %	5.1 %
Daimler	$70,723	$68,949	$67,009	2.6 %	5.5 %
Ford	$51,786	$50,827	$53,022	1.9 %	-2.3 %
GM	$51,418	$51,750	$50,965	-0.6 %	0.9 %
Honda	$38,246	$34,966	$38,695	9.4 %	-1.2 %
Hyundai	$36,907	$35,420	$36,805	4.2 %	0.3 %
Kia	$34,880	$31,816	$34,521	9.6 %	1.0 %
Nissan	$35,975	$33,942	$36,950	6.0 %	-2.6 %
Stellantis	$55,049	$49,922	$54,182	10.3 %	1.6 %
Subaru	$35,008	$33,068	$34,551	5.9 %	1.3 %
Toyota	$40,547	$39,689	$41,284	2.2 %	-1.8 %
Volkswagen Group	$45,279	$41,936	$45,070	8.0 %	0.5 %
Industry	$44,942	$42,500	$44,977	5.7 %	-0.1 %
	$2,442		-$35

 

Incentives
Manufacturer	Sep 2022 Forecast	Sep 2021 Actual	Aug 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$1,047	$3,601	$1,251	-70.9 %	-16.3 %
Daimler	$1,323	$3,177	$1,407	-58.4 %	-6.0 %
Ford	$984	$2,598	$1,008	-62.1 %	-2.4 %
GM	$1,267	$2,650	$1,468	-52.2 %	-13.7 %
Honda	$898	$2,007	$890	-55.3 %	0.8 %
Hyundai	$431	$1,381	$409	-68.8 %	5.3 %
Kia	$384	$2,047	$450	-81.2 %	-14.6 %
Nissan	$1,090	$2,397	$1,391	-54.5 %	-21.6 %
Stellantis	$2,821	$3,186	$2,403	-11.5 %	17.4 %
Subaru	$453	$1,199	$492	-62.2 %	-7.8 %
Toyota	$672	$1,794	$819	-62.6 %	-18.0 %
Volkswagen Group	$1,185	$2,547	$1,249	-53.5 %	-5.1 %
Industry	$1,090	$2,347	$1,113	-53.6 %	-2.1 %
	-$1,257		-$23

 

Incentives as % of ATP
Manufacturer	Sep 2022 Forecast	Sep 2021 Actual	Aug 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	1.5 %	5.8 %	1.9 %	-73.8 %	-20.3 %
Daimler	1.9 %	4.6 %	2.1 %	-59.4 %	-10.9 %
Ford	1.9 %	5.1 %	1.9 %	-62.8 %	-0.1 %
GM	2.5 %	5.1 %	2.9 %	-51.9 %	-14.4 %
Honda	2.3 %	5.7 %	2.3 %	-59.1 %	2.0 %
Hyundai	1.2 %	3.9 %	1.1 %	-70.1 %	5.1 %
Kia	1.1 %	6.4 %	1.3 %	-82.9 %	-15.5 %
Nissan	3.0 %	7.1 %	3.8 %	-57.1 %	-19.5 %
Stellantis	5.1 %	6.4 %	4.4 %	-19.7 %	15.5 %
Subaru	1.3 %	3.6 %	1.4 %	-64.3 %	-9.0 %
Toyota	1.7 %	4.5 %	2.0 %	-63.3 %	-16.5 %
Volkswagen Group	2.6 %	6.1 %	2.8 %	-56.9 %	-5.5 %
Industry	2.4 %	5.5 %	2.5 %	-56.1 %	-2.0 %

 

Revenue
Manufacturer	Sep 2022 Forecast	Sep 2021 Actual	Aug 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
Industry	$51,263,941,149	$42,807,179,128	$51,783,670,865	19.8 %	-1.0 %

Quarterly Tables

Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Q3 2022	Q3 2021	Q2 2022	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	QoQ % Change	QoQ % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	85,325	82,064	84,036	4.0 %	4.0 %	1.5 %	1.5 %
Daimler	81,356	63,747	88,410	27.6 %	27.6 %	-8.0 %	-8.0 %
Ford	469,984	397,644	480,558	18.2 %	18.2 %	-2.2 %	-2.2 %
GM	558,835	443,150	578,507	26.1 %	26.1 %	-3.4 %	-3.4 %
Honda	223,731	345,914	239,789	-35.3 %	-35.3 %	-6.7 %	-6.7 %
Hyundai	201,838	193,522	198,136	4.3 %	4.3 %	1.9 %	1.9 %
Kia	192,290	177,014	182,146	8.6 %	8.6 %	5.6 %	5.6 %
Nissan	152,754	198,955	183,171	-23.2 %	-23.2 %	-16.6 %	-16.6 %
Stellantis	391,081	413,311	408,040	-5.4 %	-5.4 %	-4.2 %	-4.2 %
Subaru	141,365	141,552	131,449	-0.1 %	-0.1 %	7.5 %	7.5 %
Tesla	128,609	75,631	138,895	70.0 %	70.0 %	-7.4 %	-7.4 %
Toyota	518,159	565,880	531,105	-8.4 %	-8.4 %	-2.4 %	-2.4 %
Volkswagen Group	159,419	136,650	142,893	16.7 %	16.7 %	11.6 %	11.6 %
Industry	3,437,982	3,394,029	3,518,915	1.3 %	1.3 %	-2.3 %	-2.3 %

 

Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Q3 2022	Q3 2021	Q2 2022	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	QoQ % Change	QoQ % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	77,759	101,575	78,805	-23.4 %	-23.4 %	-1.3 %	-1.3 %
Daimler	74,811	75,132	64,924	-0.4 %	-0.4 %	15.2 %	15.2 %
Ford	334,938	366,931	325,514	-8.7 %	-8.7 %	2.9 %	2.9 %
GM	465,386	599,229	403,778	-22.3 %	-22.3 %	15.3 %	15.3 %
Honda	218,036	470,440	258,883	-53.7 %	-53.7 %	-15.8 %	-15.8 %
Hyundai	197,081	228,474	169,737	-13.7 %	-13.7 %	16.1 %	16.1 %
Kia	186,369	200,746	137,801	-7.2 %	-7.2 %	35.2 %	35.2 %
Nissan	131,795	235,625	164,290	-44.1 %	-44.1 %	-19.8 %	-19.8 %
Stellantis	303,355	432,724	331,777	-29.9 %	-29.9 %	-8.6 %	-8.6 %
Subaru	138,518	157,208	128,244	-11.9 %	-11.9 %	8.0 %	8.0 %
Tesla	110,413	67,602	126,601	63.3 %	63.3 %	-12.8 %	-12.8 %
Toyota	472,465	601,027	459,059	-21.4 %	-21.4 %	2.9 %	2.9 %
Volkswagen Group	144,780	189,750	109,827	-23.7 %	-23.7 %	31.8 %	31.8 %
Industry	2,981,895	3,907,705	2,894,256	-23.7 %	-23.7 %	3.0 %	3.0 %

 

Total Market Share
Manufacturer	Q3 2022	Q3 2021	Q2 2022
BMW	2.5 %	2.4 %	2.4 %
Daimler	2.4 %	1.9 %	2.5 %
Ford	13.7 %	11.7 %	13.7 %
GM	16.3 %	13.1 %	16.4 %
Honda	6.5 %	10.2 %	6.8 %
Hyundai	5.9 %	5.7 %	5.6 %
Kia	5.6 %	5.2 %	5.2 %
Nissan	4.4 %	5.9 %	5.2 %
Stellantis	11.4 %	12.2 %	11.6 %
Subaru	4.1 %	4.2 %	3.7 %
Tesla	3.7 %	2.2 %	3.9 %
Toyota	15.1 %	16.7 %	15.1 %
Volkswagen Group	4.6 %	4.0 %	4.1 %
	96.1 %	95.3 %	96.3 %

 

Retail Market Share
Manufacturer	Q3 2022	Q3 2021	Q2 2022
BMW	2.6 %	2.6 %	2.7 %
Daimler	2.5 %	1.9 %	2.2 %
Ford	11.2 %	9.4 %	11.2 %
GM	15.6 %	15.3 %	14.0 %
Honda	7.3 %	12.0 %	8.9 %
Hyundai	6.6 %	5.8 %	5.9 %
Kia	6.3 %	5.1 %	4.8 %
Nissan	4.4 %	6.0 %	5.7 %
Stellantis	10.2 %	11.1 %	11.5 %
Subaru	4.6 %	4.0 %	4.4 %
Tesla	3.7 %	1.7 %	4.4 %
Toyota	15.8 %	15.4 %	15.9 %
Volkswagen Group	4.9 %	4.9 %	3.8 %
	95.8 %	95.4 %	95.3 %

 

ATP
Manufacturer	Q3 2022	Q3 2021	Q2 2022	YoY % Change		QoQ % Change
BMW	$66,984	$60,360	$65,923	11.0 %		1.6 %
Daimler	$67,723	$67,918	$65,788	-0.3 %		2.9 %
Ford	$52,878	$50,724	$50,843	4.2 %		4.0 %
GM	$51,220	$49,290	$50,597	3.9 %		1.2 %
Honda	$38,593	$33,923	$37,315	13.8 %		3.4 %
Hyundai	$36,613	$34,461	$37,378	6.2 %		-2.0 %
Kia	$34,844	$30,979	$35,168	12.5 %		-0.9 %
Nissan	$36,334	$33,315	$36,023	9.1 %		0.9 %
Stellantis	$54,691	$49,396	$53,736	10.7 %		1.8 %
Subaru	$34,795	$33,611	$35,323	3.5 %		-1.5 %
Toyota	$40,900	$38,313	$39,925	6.8 %		2.4 %
Volkswagen Group	$45,198	$42,202	$46,644	7.1 %		-3.1 %
Industry	$45,137	$41,284	$44,665	9.3 %		1.1 %
	$3,853		$472

 

Incentives
Manufacturer	Q3 2022	Q3 2021	Q2 2022	YoY % Change		QoQ % Change
BMW	$1,153	$4,066	$1,207	-71.7 %		-4.5 %
Daimler	$1,337	$3,484	$1,298	-61.6 %		3.0 %
Ford	$1,012	$2,475	$1,191	-59.1 %		-15.0 %
GM	$1,455	$3,125	$1,754	-53.5 %		-17.1 %
Honda	$819	$2,059	$816	-60.2 %		0.4 %
Hyundai	$444	$1,576	$605	-71.8 %		-26.6 %
Kia	$475	$2,338	$635	-79.7 %		-25.2 %
Nissan	$1,227	$2,366	$1,448	-48.2 %		-15.3 %
Stellantis	$2,378	$3,022	$1,905	-21.3 %		24.8 %
Subaru	$574	$1,293	$746	-55.6 %		-23.0 %
Toyota	$749	$1,941	$794	-61.4 %		-5.7 %
Volkswagen Group	$1,177	$2,793	$1,185	-57.9 %		-0.6 %
Industry	$1,101	$2,469	$1,205	-55.4 %		-8.6 %
	-$1,368		-$103

(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that lets auto buyers and sellers connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. With access to an expansive inventory provided by our Certified Dealers, we are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto shopping experience as we seek to bring more of the process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new, used and Certified Pre-Owned vehicles. When they are ready, shoppers in TrueCar's marketplace can connect with a Certified Dealer in our network, who shares our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great auto shopping experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter. 

 

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SOURCE TrueCar.com

FAQ

What are the new vehicle sales forecasts for TrueCar in September 2022?

TrueCar forecasts new vehicle sales will reach 1,140,659 units in September 2022.

How much did new vehicle sales increase year-over-year for September 2022 according to TrueCar?

New vehicle sales are expected to rise by 13% year-over-year.

What is the estimated seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for light vehicle sales in September 2022?

The estimated SAAR for September 2022 is 13.4 million.

What is the projected change in used vehicle sales for September 2022?

Used vehicle sales are projected to decrease by 11% year-over-year.

What is the average interest rate on new vehicles according to TrueCar?

The average interest rate on new vehicles is reported to be 5.9%.