TrueCar Releases Analysis of October Industry Sales

Rhea-AI Summary

TrueCar forecasts total new vehicle industry sales for October 2022 at 1,165,658 units, a 15% increase from last year, and an estimated 14.6 million annualized sales rate, up 13% year-over-year. Excluding fleet sales, retail deliveries are expected to reach 995,808 units, up 9% but down 2% from September. Average transaction prices for new vehicles are projected to increase 3% year-over-year. Increased interest rates and pricing are cited as factors influencing affordability in the sales environment.

Positive

• Total new vehicle sales expected to rise 15% year-over-year.
• Projected retail vehicle deliveries to be 995,808 units, up 9% from last year.
• Total annualized sales rate expected to reach 14.6 million, a 13% increase.

Negative

• Retail deliveries expected to decline by 2% compared to September.
• Increased average interest rates for new vehicles at 6.3%, up from 6% in September.

Industry sales this month up 15% from a year ago 

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Oct. 28, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,165,658 units in October 2022, up 15% from a year ago and about on par with September 2022, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 14.6 million, up 13% from October 2021. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 995,808 units, up 9% from a year ago and down about 2% from September 2022.

"The sales pace has improved from a year ago though we expect it to be on par with the prior month when adjusting for selling days. With the backdrop of increased interest rates and sustained elevated pricing, the limiting factor for sales may be shifting from inventory to affordability," said Zack Krelle, Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "We are keeping a close eye on counter-measures to tackle affordability concerns."

"In October we're seeing Honda, Nissan and General Motors continuing to gain traction in sales, with last month's indication of positive growth materializing into this month," said Justin Colon, Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar. "GM's huge push into electric vehicles is building momentum while the Malibu is currently positioned to capture sales as an affordability outlet."

Additional October Industry Insights (from TrueCar):

• Total sales for October 2022 are expected to be up 15% from a year ago and about even with September 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Fleet sales for October 2022 are expected to be up 64% from a year ago and up 11% from September 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Average transaction price for new vehicles is projected to be up 3% from a year ago and slightly down from September 2022.
• Total SAAR is expected to be up 13% from a year ago at 14.6 million units.
• Used vehicle sales for October 2022 are expected to reach almost 3 million, down 13% from a year ago and even with September 2022.
• The average interest rate on new vehicles is 6.3% compared to September 2022 at 6% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is about 9%.
• The average loan term on a new vehicle for October 2022 is about 70 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is about 71 months.

Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Oct 2022 Forecast	Oct 2021 Actual	Sep 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	28,411	28,231	27,332	0.6 %	4.5 %	3.9 %	0.0 %
Daimler	28,712	20,081	30,241	43.0 %	48.5 %	-5.1 %	-8.7 %
Ford	149,677	174,464	141,633	-14.2 %	-10.9 %	5.7 %	1.6 %
GM	203,007	133,168	186,532	52.4 %	58.3 %	8.8 %	4.6 %
Honda	85,813	97,083	79,354	-11.6 %	-8.2 %	8.1 %	4.0 %
Hyundai	64,976	62,061	64,372	4.7 %	8.7 %	0.9 %	-2.9 %
Kia	57,761	52,067	56,270	10.9 %	15.2 %	2.7 %	-1.3 %
Nissan	63,551	59,859	53,400	6.2 %	10.3 %	19.0 %	14.4 %
Stellantis	113,589	131,496	122,567	-13.6 %	-10.3 %	-7.3 %	-10.9 %
Subaru	46,539	36,817	45,658	26.4 %	31.3 %	1.9 %	-2.0 %
Tesla	45,895	27,137	44,576	69.1 %	75.6 %	3.0 %	-1.0 %
Toyota	185,184	146,670	175,577	26.3 %	31.1 %	5.5 %	1.4 %
Volkswagen Group	45,341	44,809	49,427	1.2 %	5.1 %	-8.3 %	-11.8 %
Industry	1,165,658	1,057,164	1,123,504	10.3 %	14.5 %	3.8 %	-0.2 %

Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Oct 2022 Forecast	Oct 2021 Actual	Sep 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	26,561	26,679	25,054	-0.4 %	3.4 %	6.0 %	1.9 %
Daimler	26,782	18,319	28,157	46.2 %	51.8 %	-4.9 %	-8.5 %
Ford	106,520	135,673	106,161	-21.5 %	-18.5 %	0.3 %	-3.5 %
GM	160,302	120,124	154,434	33.4 %	38.6 %	3.8 %	-0.2 %
Honda	83,730	96,584	77,119	-13.3 %	-10.0 %	8.6 %	4.4 %
Hyundai	63,407	61,257	63,665	3.5 %	7.5 %	-0.4 %	-4.2 %
Kia	55,798	48,874	54,393	14.2 %	18.6 %	2.6 %	-1.4 %
Nissan	55,590	53,227	43,668	4.4 %	8.5 %	27.3 %	22.4 %
Stellantis	83,742	105,427	97,743	-20.6 %	-17.5 %	-14.3 %	-17.6 %
Subaru	45,538	36,074	44,469	26.2 %	31.1 %	2.4 %	-1.5 %
Tesla	39,485	26,878	37,348	46.9 %	52.6 %	5.7 %	1.7 %
Toyota	166,442	137,503	157,414	21.0 %	25.7 %	5.7 %	1.7 %
Volkswagen Group	40,506	44,058	45,190	-8.1 %	-4.5 %	-10.4 %	-13.8 %
Industry	995,808	951,356	976,052	4.7 %	8.7 %	2.0 %	-1.9 %

 

Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Oct 2022 Forecast	Oct 2021 Actual	Sep 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	1,850	1,552	2,278	19.2 %	23.8 %	-18.8 %	-21.9 %
Daimler	1,930	1,762	2,084	9.6 %	13.8 %	-7.4 %	-11.0 %
Ford	43,157	38,791	35,472	11.3 %	15.5 %	21.7 %	17.0 %
GM	42,705	13,044	32,098	227.4 %	240.0 %	33.0 %	27.9 %
Honda	2,083	499	2,235	317.5 %	333.6 %	-6.8 %	-10.4 %
Hyundai	1,569	804	707	95.1 %	102.6 %	121.8 %	113.3 %
Kia	1,963	3,193	1,877	-38.5 %	-36.2 %	4.6 %	0.6 %
Nissan	7,961	6,632	9,732	20.0 %	24.7 %	-18.2 %	-21.3 %
Stellantis	29,847	26,069	24,824	14.5 %	18.9 %	20.2 %	15.6 %
Subaru	1,001	743	1,189	34.7 %	39.9 %	-15.8 %	-19.0 %
Tesla	6,410	259	7,228	2376.9 %	2472.1 %	-11.3 %	-14.7 %
Toyota	18,742	9,167	18,163	104.4 %	112.3 %	3.2 %	-0.8 %
Volkswagen Group	4,835	751	4,237	543.9 %	568.7 %	14.1 %	9.7 %
Industry	166,917	105,610	144,519	58.1 %	64.1 %	15.5 %	11.1 %

 

Fleet Penetration
Manufacturer	Oct 2022 Forecast	Oct 2021 Actual	Sep 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	MoM % Change
BMW	6.5 %	5.5 %	8.3 %	18.4 %	-21.9 %
Daimler	6.7 %	8.8 %	6.9 %	-23.4 %	-2.5 %
Ford	28.8 %	22.2 %	25.0 %	29.7 %	15.1 %
GM	21.0 %	9.8 %	17.2 %	114.8 %	22.2 %
Honda	2.4 %	0.5 %	2.8 %	372.4 %	-13.8 %
Hyundai	2.4 %	1.3 %	1.1 %	86.3 %	119.7 %
Kia	3.4 %	6.1 %	3.3 %	-44.6 %	1.9 %
Nissan	12.5 %	11.1 %	18.2 %	13.1 %	-31.3 %
Stellantis	26.3 %	19.8 %	20.3 %	32.5 %	29.7 %
Subaru	2.2 %	2.0 %	2.6 %	6.6 %	-17.4 %
Tesla	14.0 %	1.0 %	16.2 %	1364.5 %	-13.9 %
Toyota	10.1 %	6.3 %	10.3 %	61.9 %	-2.2 %
Volkswagen Group	10.7 %	1.7 %	8.6 %	536.4 %	24.4 %
Industry	14.3 %	10.0 %	12.9 %	43.3 %	11.3 %

 

Total Market Share
Manufacturer	Oct 2022 Forecast	Oct 2021 Actual	Sep 2022 Actual
BMW	2.4 %	2.7 %	2.4 %
Daimler	2.5 %	1.9 %	2.7 %
Ford	12.8 %	16.5 %	12.6 %
GM	17.4 %	12.6 %	16.6 %
Honda	7.4 %	9.2 %	7.1 %
Hyundai	5.6 %	5.9 %	5.7 %
Kia	5.0 %	4.9 %	5.0 %
Nissan	5.5 %	5.7 %	4.8 %
Stellantis	9.7 %	12.4 %	10.9 %
Subaru	4.0 %	3.5 %	4.1 %
Tesla	3.9 %	2.6 %	4.0 %
Toyota	15.9 %	13.9 %	15.6 %
Volkswagen Group	3.9 %	4.2 %	4.4 %
	96.0 %	95.9 %	95.9 %

 

Retail Market Share
Manufacturer	Oct 2022 Forecast	Oct 2021 Actual	Sep 2022 Actual
BMW	2.7 %	2.8 %	2.6 %
Daimler	2.7 %	1.9 %	2.9 %
Ford	10.7 %	14.3 %	10.9 %
GM	16.1 %	12.6 %	15.8 %
Honda	8.4 %	10.2 %	7.9 %
Hyundai	6.4 %	6.4 %	6.5 %
Kia	5.6 %	5.1 %	5.6 %
Nissan	5.6 %	5.6 %	4.5 %
Stellantis	8.4 %	11.1 %	10.0 %
Subaru	4.6 %	3.8 %	4.6 %
Tesla	4.0 %	2.8 %	3.8 %
Toyota	16.7 %	14.5 %	16.1 %
Volkswagen Group	4.1 %	4.6 %	4.6 %
	95.8 %	95.7 %	95.8 %

 

ATP
Manufacturer	Oct 2022 Forecast	Oct 2021 Actual	Sep 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$70,632	$62,204	$69,542	13.5 %	1.6 %
Daimler	$71,531	$67,638	$68,945	5.8 %	3.8 %
Ford	$52,108	$49,608	$51,921	5.0 %	0.4 %
GM	$51,718	$53,408	$51,624	-3.2 %	0.2 %
Honda	$37,947	$34,977	$38,218	8.5 %	-0.7 %
Hyundai	$37,161	$35,849	$36,779	3.7 %	1.0 %
Kia	$34,177	$32,872	$34,749	4.0 %	-1.6 %
Nissan	$36,529	$34,846	$35,765	4.8 %	2.1 %
Stellantis	$54,549	$50,989	$54,546	7.0 %	0.0 %
Subaru	$33,961	$33,731	$34,758	0.7 %	-2.3 %
Toyota	$39,922	$41,166	$40,541	-3.0 %	-1.5 %
Volkswagen Group	$46,462	$45,009	$46,656	3.2 %	-0.4 %
Industry	$44,625	$43,352	$44,845	2.9 %	-0.5 %
	$1,273		-$220

 

Revenue
Manufacturer	Oct 2022 Forecast	Oct 2021 Actual	Sep 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
Industry	$52,017,395,876	$45,829,774,915	$50,384,007,197	13.5 %	3.2 %

 

(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that lets auto buyers and sellers connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. With access to an expansive inventory provided by our Certified Dealers, we are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto shopping experience as we seek to bring more of the process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new, used and Certified Pre-Owned vehicles. When they are ready, shoppers in TrueCar's marketplace can connect with a Certified Dealer in our network, who shares our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great auto shopping experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter. 

 

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SOURCE TrueCar.com

FAQ

What is the forecast for new vehicle sales in October 2022 for TRUE?

TrueCar projects new vehicle sales to reach 1,165,658 units in October 2022.

How does the October 2022 vehicle sales forecast compare to October 2021 for TRUE?

The forecast indicates a 15% increase in sales compared to October 2021.

What is the expected annualized sales rate for vehicles in October 2022 according to TRUE?

The expected annualized sales rate is approximately 14.6 million units.

What are the trends in retail vehicle deliveries for October 2022 as per TRUE?

Retail deliveries are expected to be 995,808 units, which is a 9% increase from the previous year.

How much are average transaction prices for new vehicles expected to increase according to TRUE?

Average transaction prices are projected to increase by 3% year-over-year.