TrueCar Releases Analysis of May Industry Sales

Rhea-AI Summary

TrueCar forecasts that total new vehicle industry sales will reach 1,221,790 units in May 2022, marking a 17% decline year-over-year but a 10% increase from April. The projected SAAR is 14 million, also down 17% from last May. Retail deliveries are expected to be 1,062,452 units, a 18% decrease YOY with a 7% increase over April. Average used car prices fell 1.6% due to rising interest rates and fuel prices. Fleet inventory won't decline as much as retail, partly due to deferred demand.

Positive

• Used vehicle prices are decreasing, down 1.6% compared to previous month.
• Estimated retail deliveries show a 7% increase compared to April 2022.

Negative

• Total new vehicle sales projected to decrease 17% year-over-year.
• Retail deliveries expected to drop 18% compared to last year.
• Incentive spending down 59% from last year.

Increased affordability expected for used car prices in the month of May

SANTA MONICA, Calif, May 25, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,221,790 units in May 2022, down 17% from a year ago and up 10% from April 2022, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 14 million, down 17% from May 2021. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,062,452 units, down 18% from a year ago and up 7% from April 2022.

"This month we're continuing to see a struggle for supply among the industry however we're also now starting to see signs of demand adjusting. Higher interest rates combined with higher fuel prices present a headwind to demand cooling off, which may explain why average used list prices are decreasing, down 1.6% in May versus April 2022," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "In terms of price adjustments, compared to the beginning of the month we are seeing more vehicles being marked down than for the same period last year. This is truer for used where we are seeing over half of our used listings getting a downward price adjustment since the beginning of the month. This trend is led by the used full-size vehicle segment."

"This month we're not expecting fleet inventory to be down as much as retail, partly due to deferred fleet demand and the domestic OEM brands generally being in a better inventory situation than imported brands," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar.

Additional Industry Insights (from TrueCar):

• Total sales for May 2022 are expected to be down 17% from a year ago and up 10% from April 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Fleet sales for May 2022 are expected to be down 6% from a year ago and up 34% from April 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Incentive spend is down 59% from last year.
• Average transaction price is projected to be up 14% from a year ago and comparable to April 2022.
• Total SAAR is expected to be down 17% from a year ago at 14 million units.
• Used vehicle sales for May 2022 are expected to reach 3.1 million, down 19% from a year ago and down 8% from April 2022.
• The average interest rate on new vehicles is 5.1% compared to April 2022 at 4.8% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 8%.
• The average loan term on a new vehicle for May 2022 is about 71 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is also about 71 months.

Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer	May 2022 Forecast	May 2021 Actual	Apr 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change      (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	29,590	39,204	28,678	-24.5%	-18.2%	3.2%	16.1%
Daimler	32,497	29,145	31,065	11.5%	20.8%	4.6%	17.7%
Ford	171,910	160,520	175,942	7.1%	16.0%	-2.3%	9.9%
GM	196,463	240,095	200,972	-18.2%	-11.4%	-2.2%	10.0%
Honda	84,399	176,815	93,250	-52.3%	-48.3%	-9.5%	1.8%
Hyundai	63,145	93,745	66,707	-32.6%	-27.0%	-5.3%	6.5%
Kia	54,806	80,298	59,063	-31.7%	-26.1%	-7.2%	4.4%
Nissan	64,910	110,374	74,668	-41.2%	-36.3%	-13.1%	-2.2%
Stellantis	139,300	182,966	143,078	-23.9%	-17.5%	-2.6%	9.5%
Subaru	47,475	56,558	45,748	-16.1%	-9.1%	3.8%	16.7%
Tesla	47,852	28,790	48,432	66.2%	80.1%	-1.2%	11.2%
Toyota	188,637	241,003	186,510	-21.7%	-15.2%	1.1%	13.8%
Volkswagen Group	51,907	72,527	45,949	-28.4%	-22.5%	13.0%	27.1%
Industry	1,221,790	1,586,748	1,254,597	-23.0%	-16.6%	-2.6%	9.6%

 

Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer	May 2022 Forecast	May 2021 Actual	Apr 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change      (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	29,025	37,474	28,168	-22.5%	-16.1%	3.0%	15.9%
Daimler	31,451	27,938	30,430	12.6%	22.0%	3.4%	16.3%
Ford	127,065	124,561	143,183	2.0%	10.5%	-11.3%	-0.2%
GM	156,341	208,133	174,521	-24.9%	-18.6%	-10.4%	0.8%
Honda	83,371	170,217	92,860	-51.0%	-46.9%	-10.2%	1.0%
Hyundai	63,040	86,835	66,001	-27.4%	-21.4%	-4.5%	7.5%
Kia	50,714	72,881	56,866	-30.4%	-24.6%	-10.8%	0.3%
Nissan	53,846	87,667	61,645	-38.6%	-33.5%	-12.7%	-1.7%
Stellantis	111,246	162,041	118,354	-31.3%	-25.6%	-6.0%	5.7%
Subaru	46,221	55,170	44,042	-16.2%	-9.2%	4.9%	18.1%
Tesla	47,312	28,790	48,415	64.3%	78.0%	-2.3%	9.9%
Toyota	170,085	204,785	164,585	-16.9%	-10.0%	3.3%	16.3%
Volkswagen Group	51,118	67,738	45,293	-24.5%	-18.2%	12.9%	27.0%
Industry	1,062,452	1,402,283	1,120,603	-24.2%	-17.9%	-5.2%	6.7%

 

Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer	May 2022 Forecast	May 2021 Actual	Apr 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change      (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	565	1,730	510	-67.3%	-64.6%	10.7%	24.6%
Daimler	1,046	1,207	635	-13.3%	-6.1%	64.6%	85.2%
Ford	44,845	35,959	32,759	24.7%	35.1%	36.9%	54.0%
GM	40,122	31,962	26,451	25.5%	36.0%	51.7%	70.6%
Honda	1,028	6,598	390	-84.4%	-83.1%	163.6%	196.5%
Hyundai	105	6,910	706	-98.5%	-98.4%	-85.1%	-83.3%
Kia	4,092	7,417	2,197	-44.8%	-40.2%	86.2%	109.5%
Nissan	11,064	22,707	13,023	-51.3%	-47.2%	-15.0%	-4.4%
Stellantis	28,054	20,925	24,724	34.1%	45.2%	13.5%	27.7%
Subaru	1,254	1,388	1,706	-9.6%	-2.1%	-26.5%	-17.3%
Tesla	540	-	17			3170.3%	3579.1%
Toyota	18,552	36,218	21,925	-48.8%	-44.5%	-15.4%	-4.8%
Volkswagen Group	789	4,789	656	-83.5%	-82.2%	20.2%	35.2%
Industry	159,338	184,465	133,994	-13.6%	-6.4%	18.9%	33.8%

 

Fleet Penetration
Manufacturer	May 2022 Forecast	May 2021 Actual	Apr 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	MoM % Change
BMW	1.9%	4.4%	1.8%	-56.7%	7.3%
Daimler	3.2%	4.1%	2.0%	-22.3%	57.4%
Ford	26.1%	22.4%	18.6%	16.4%	40.1%
GM	20.4%	13.3%	13.2%	53.4%	55.2%
Honda	1.2%	3.7%	0.4%	-67.4%	191.2%
Hyundai	0.2%	7.4%	1.1%	-97.7%	-84.3%
Kia	7.5%	9.2%	3.7%	-19.2%	100.7%
Nissan	17.0%	20.6%	17.4%	-17.1%	-2.3%
Stellantis	20.1%	11.4%	17.3%	76.1%	16.5%
Subaru	2.6%	2.5%	3.7%	7.6%	-29.1%
Tesla	1.1%	0.0%	0.0%		3209.9%
Toyota	9.8%	15.0%	11.8%	-34.6%	-16.3%
Volkswagen Group	1.5%	6.6%	1.4%	-77.0%	6.4%
Industry	13.0%	11.6%	10.7%	12.2%	22.1%

 

Total Market Share
Manufacturer	May 2022 Forecast	May 2021 Actual	Apr 2022 Actual
BMW	2.4%	2.5%	2.3%
Daimler	2.7%	1.8%	2.5%
Ford	14.1%	10.1%	14.0%
GM	16.1%	15.1%	16.0%
Honda	6.9%	11.1%	7.4%
Hyundai	5.2%	5.9%	5.3%
Kia	4.5%	5.1%	4.7%
Nissan	5.3%	7.0%	6.0%
Stellantis	11.4%	11.5%	11.4%
Subaru	3.9%	3.6%	3.6%
Tesla	3.9%	1.8%	3.9%
Toyota	15.4%	15.2%	14.9%
Volkswagen Group	4.2%	4.6%	3.7%
	96.0%	95.3%	95.7%

 

Retail Market Share
Manufacturer	May 2022 Forecast	May 2021 Actual	Apr 2022 Actual
BMW	2.7%	2.7%	2.5%
Daimler	3.0%	2.0%	2.7%
Ford	12.0%	8.9%	12.8%
GM	14.7%	14.8%	15.6%
Honda	7.8%	12.1%	8.3%
Hyundai	5.9%	6.2%	5.9%
Kia	4.8%	5.2%	5.1%
Nissan	5.1%	6.3%	5.5%
Stellantis	10.5%	11.6%	10.6%
Subaru	4.4%	3.9%	3.9%
Tesla	4.5%	2.1%	4.3%
Toyota	16.0%	14.6%	14.7%
Volkswagen Group	4.8%	4.8%	4.0%
	96.1%	95.1%	95.9%

 

ATP
Manufacturer	May 2022 Forecast	May 2021 Actual	Apr 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$67,092	$60,621	$68,146	10.7%	-1.5%
Daimler	$65,924	$61,985	$68,337	6.4%	-3.5%
Ford	$51,037	$43,388	$49,070	17.6%	4.0%
GM	$50,566	$46,352	$50,420	9.1%	0.3%
Honda	$37,352	$32,145	$36,550	16.2%	2.2%
Hyundai	$36,958	$31,800	$37,190	16.2%	-0.6%
Kia	$35,091	$30,179	$34,719	16.3%	1.1%
Nissan	$36,156	$31,031	$35,810	16.5%	1.0%
Stellantis	$53,370	$46,593	$53,466	14.5%	-0.2%
Subaru	$35,583	$32,307	$34,908	10.1%	1.9%
Toyota	$39,073	$36,641	$39,957	6.6%	-2.2%
Volkswagen Group	$46,455	$43,928	$47,011	5.8%	-1.2%
Industry	$44,254	$38,694	$44,043	14.4%	0.5%
	$5,560		$211

 

Incentives
Manufacturer	May 2022 Forecast	May 2021 Actual	Apr 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$1,117	$4,814	$1,309	-76.8%	-14.6%
Daimler	$1,452	$3,650	$1,354	-60.2%	7.2%
Ford	$1,435	$2,352	$1,458	-39.0%	-1.6%
GM	$1,677	$4,535	$1,926	-63.0%	-12.9%
Honda	$905	$2,133	$960	-57.6%	-5.7%
Hyundai	$704	$2,019	$775	-65.1%	-9.2%
Kia	$619	$2,483	$669	-75.1%	-7.5%
Nissan	$1,381	$3,698	$1,595	-62.7%	-13.5%
Stellantis	$1,892	$3,892	$1,925	-51.4%	-1.7%
Subaru	$737	$1,299	$719	-43.2%	2.5%
Toyota	$818	$2,246	$844	-63.6%	-3.0%
Volkswagen Group	$1,155	$3,846	$1,252	-70.0%	-7.8%
Industry	$1,251	$3,055	$1,327	-59.1%	-5.8%
	-$1,804		-$77

 

Incentives as % of ATP
Manufacturer	May 2022 Forecast	May 2021 Actual	Apr 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	1.7%	7.9%	1.9%	-79.0%	-13.3%
Daimler	2.2%	5.9%	2.0%	-62.6%	11.2%
Ford	2.8%	5.4%	3.0%	-48.1%	-5.4%
GM	3.3%	9.8%	3.8%	-66.1%	-13.2%
Honda	2.4%	6.6%	2.6%	-63.5%	-7.7%
Hyundai	1.9%	6.3%	2.1%	-70.0%	-8.6%
Kia	1.8%	8.2%	1.9%	-78.6%	-8.5%
Nissan	3.8%	11.9%	4.5%	-68.0%	-14.3%
Stellantis	3.5%	8.4%	3.6%	-57.5%	-1.5%
Subaru	2.1%	4.0%	2.1%	-48.5%	0.6%
Toyota	2.1%	6.1%	2.1%	-65.8%	-0.8%
Volkswagen Group	2.5%	8.8%	2.7%	-71.6%	-6.6%
Industry	2.8%	7.9%	3.0%	-64.2%	-6.2%

 

Revenue
Manufacturer	May 2022 Forecast	May 2021 Actual	Apr 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
Industry	$54,068,972,589	$61,398,057,586	$55,256,423,309	-11.9%	-2.1%

 

(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that lets auto buyers and sellers connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. With access to an expansive inventory provided by our Certified Dealers, we are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto shopping experience as we seek to bring more of the process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new, used and Certified Pre-Owned vehicles. When they are ready, shoppers in TrueCar's marketplace can connect with a Certified Dealer in our network, who shares our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great auto shopping experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. 

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SOURCE TrueCar.com

FAQ

What are the predicted new vehicle sales for May 2022 by TrueCar?

TrueCar predicts total new vehicle sales will reach 1,221,790 units in May 2022.

How much are used vehicle prices changing in May 2022?

Used vehicle prices are projected to decrease by 1.6% compared to April 2022.

What is the year-over-year change in retail deliveries for new vehicles in May 2022?

Retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks are expected to decline by 18% year-over-year.

What is the estimated SAAR for total light vehicle industry sales in May 2022?

The estimated SAAR for May 2022 is 14 million, down 17% from May 2021.

What factors are affecting demand for vehicles according to TrueCar?

Higher interest rates and fuel prices are contributing to a cooling off in vehicle demand.