TrueCar Releases Analysis of June and 2022 Second Quarter Industry Sales

Rhea-AI Summary

TrueCar expects new vehicle sales in June 2022 to reach 1,166,569 units, a 14% decline from last year, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 13 million. Retail deliveries are projected at 1,023,466 units, down 15% year-over-year. Despite constrained inventory, demand for electric vehicles has surged, with lead interest increasing over 100%. Consumers face rising interest rates, leading to a 30% rise in longer loan terms. Average transaction prices rose 13% YoY, while incentive spending decreased by 57%.

Positive

• Surge in interest for electric vehicles, with lead interest up over 100% YoY.
• Despite challenges, average transaction price increased by 13% from last year.

Negative

• New vehicle sales expected to decline 14% YoY and 3% MoM.
• Retail vehicle deliveries projected to drop 15% YoY and 5% MoM.
• Incentive spend decreased by 57% compared to last year.

Electric vehicles remain popular amid rising fuel costs while increasing interest rates pose a challenge to affordability

SANTA MONICA, Calif., June 29, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,166,569 units in June 2022, down 14% from a year ago and down 3% from May 2022, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 13 million, down 13% from June 2021. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,023,466 units, down 15% from a year ago and down 5% from May 2022.

"As we head into the July fourth weekend, inventory across the industry remains at or near the constrained levels we've been seeing throughout 2022, although demand for vehicles remains strong," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "We continue to see rapid growth in demand for new electric vehicles amid soaring fuel prices, with that segment's mix of leads up over 100% from last June. This remains one of the areas in particular that is seeing limited inventory."

"With interest rates rising, consumers who are entering the market for a vehicle for the first time in a while might see rates very different from the ones they saw in 2018 or 2019," said Justin Colon, Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar. "We're seeing consumers opting for longer loan terms to offset the impact of rising APRs. Specifically, there has been a 30% increase in the mix of loan terms of 84 months or more from last year."

Additional Industry Insights (from TrueCar):

• Total sales for June 2022 are expected to be down 14% from a year ago and down 3% from May 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Fleet sales for June 2022 are expected to be down 8% from a year ago and up 14% from May 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Incentive spend is down 57% from last year.
• Average transaction price is projected to be up 13% from a year ago and up 2% from May 2022.
• Total SAAR is expected to be down 13% from a year ago at 13 million units.
• Used vehicle sales for June 2022 are expected to reach 2.9 million, down 16% from a year ago and down 13% from May 2022.
• The average interest rate on new vehicles is 5.2% compared to May 2022 at 5.1% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 8%.
• The average loan term on a new vehicle for June 2022 is about 71 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is also about 71 months, both up about one month since last June.
• Quarterly average transaction price is projected to be up 15% from a year ago and up 2% from Q1 2022.
• Quarterly incentive spend is down 59% from Q2 2021.

 

Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Jun 2022 Forecast	Jun 2021 Actual	May 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change     (DailySelling Rate)
BMW	33,805	34,872	26,988	-3.1 %	-6.8 %	25.3 %	15.6 %
Daimler	28,239	24,347	24,851	16.0 %	11.5 %	13.6 %	4.9 %
Ford	155,514	114,677	153,434	35.6 %	30.4 %	1.4 %	-6.4 %
GM	196,923	204,782	177,856	-3.8 %	-7.5 %	10.7 %	2.2 %
Honda	79,196	153,122	75,491	-48.3 %	-50.3 %	4.9 %	-3.2 %
Hyundai	67,812	76,519	63,832	-11.4 %	-14.8 %	6.2 %	-1.9 %
Kia	66,632	68,486	57,941	-2.7 %	-6.4 %	15.0 %	6.2 %
Nissan	52,298	88,642	53,381	-41.0 %	-43.3 %	-2.0 %	-9.6 %
Stellantis	132,928	136,334	130,987	-2.5 %	-6.2 %	1.5 %	-6.3 %
Subaru	47,620	42,877	42,526	11.1 %	6.8 %	12.0 %	3.4 %
Tesla	46,012	22,869	47,706	101.2 %	93.5 %	-3.6 %	-11.0 %
Toyota	172,540	209,721	176,772	-17.7 %	-20.9 %	-2.4 %	-9.9 %
Volkswagen Group	54,578	61,251	46,397	-10.9 %	-14.3 %	17.6 %	8.6 %
Industry	1,166,569	1,300,873	1,114,285	-10.3 %	-13.8 %	4.7 %	-3.4 %

Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Jun 2022 Forecast	Jun 2021 Actual	May 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	33,240	33,334	26,514	-0.3 %	-4.1 %	25.4 %	15.7 %
Daimler	27,193	23,332	24,343	16.6 %	12.1 %	11.7 %	3.1 %
Ford	112,656	88,762	124,787	26.9 %	22.0 %	-9.7 %	-16.7 %
GM	159,632	177,763	154,886	-10.2 %	-13.7 %	3.1 %	-4.9 %
Honda	78,168	147,414	75,173	-47.0 %	-49.0 %	4.0 %	-4.0 %
Hyundai	67,707	70,941	63,159	-4.6 %	-8.2 %	7.2 %	-1.0 %
Kia	62,540	62,159	55,785	0.6 %	-3.3 %	12.1 %	3.5 %
Nissan	41,234	70,389	44,035	-41.4 %	-43.7 %	-6.4 %	-13.6 %
Stellantis	107,735	120,185	108,631	-10.4 %	-13.8 %	-0.8 %	-8.5 %
Subaru	46,366	41,826	40,941	10.9 %	6.6 %	13.3 %	4.5 %
Tesla	45,472	22,869	47,690	98.8 %	91.2 %	-4.7 %	-12.0 %
Toyota	162,544	178,371	156,058	-8.9 %	-12.4 %	4.2 %	-3.9 %
Volkswagen Group	53,789	57,466	45,708	-6.4 %	-10.0 %	17.7 %	8.6 %
Industry	1,023,466	1,151,552	998,243	-11.1 %	-14.5 %	2.5 %	-5.4 %

Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Jun 2022 Forecast	Jun 2021 Actual	May 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	565	1,538	474	-63.3 %	-64.7 %	19.2 %	10.1 %
Daimler	1,046	1,015	508	3.0 %	-0.9 %	105.8 %	89.9 %
Ford	42,858	25,915	28,647	65.4 %	59.0 %	49.6 %	38.1 %
GM	37,291	27,019	22,970	38.0 %	32.7 %	62.3 %	49.9 %
Honda	1,028	5,708	318	-82.0 %	-82.7 %	223.3 %	198.4 %
Hyundai	105	5,578	673	-98.1 %	-98.2 %	-84.4 %	-85.6 %
Kia	4,092	6,327	2,156	-35.3 %	-37.8 %	89.8 %	75.2 %
Nissan	11,064	18,253	9,346	-39.4 %	-41.7 %	18.4 %	9.3 %
Stellantis	25,193	16,149	22,356	56.0 %	50.0 %	12.7 %	4.0 %
Subaru	1,254	1,051	1,585	19.3 %	14.7 %	-20.9 %	-27.0 %
Tesla	540	-	16			3220.1 %	2964.7 %
Toyota	9,996	31,350	20,714	-68.1 %	-69.3 %	-51.7 %	-55.5 %
Volkswagen Group	789	3,785	689	-79.2 %	-80.0 %	14.5 %	5.7 %
Industry	143,103	149,321	116,042	-4.2 %	-7.9 %	23.3 %	13.8 %

Fleet Penetration
Manufacturer	Jun 2022 Forecast	Jun 2021 Actual	May 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	MoM % Change
BMW	1.7 %	4.4 %	1.8 %	-62.1 %	-4.8 %
Daimler	3.7 %	4.2 %	2.0 %	-11.2 %	81.1 %
Ford	27.6 %	22.6 %	18.7 %	21.9 %	47.6 %
GM	18.9 %	13.2 %	12.9 %	43.5 %	46.6 %
Honda	1.3 %	3.7 %	0.4 %	-65.2 %	208.1 %
Hyundai	0.2 %	7.3 %	1.1 %	-97.9 %	-85.3 %
Kia	6.1 %	9.2 %	3.7 %	-33.5 %	65.1 %
Nissan	21.2 %	20.6 %	17.5 %	2.7 %	20.8 %
Stellantis	19.0 %	11.8 %	17.1 %	60.0 %	11.0 %
Subaru	2.6 %	2.5 %	3.7 %	7.4 %	-29.4 %
Tesla	1.2 %	0.0 %	0.0 %		3342.3 %
Toyota	5.8 %	14.9 %	11.7 %	-61.2 %	-50.6 %
Volkswagen Group	1.4 %	6.2 %	1.5 %	-76.6 %	-2.6 %
Industry	12.3 %	11.5 %	10.4 %	6.9 %	17.8 %

Total Market Share
Manufacturer	Jun 2022 Forecast	Jun 2021 Actual	May 2022 Actual
BMW	2.9 %	2.7 %	2.4 %
Daimler	2.4 %	1.9 %	2.2 %
Ford	13.3 %	8.8 %	13.8 %
GM	16.9 %	15.7 %	16.0 %
Honda	6.8 %	11.8 %	6.8 %
Hyundai	5.8 %	5.9 %	5.7 %
Kia	5.7 %	5.3 %	5.2 %
Nissan	4.5 %	6.8 %	4.8 %
Stellantis	11.4 %	10.5 %	11.8 %
Subaru	4.1 %	3.3 %	3.8 %
Tesla	3.9 %	1.8 %	4.3 %
Toyota	14.8 %	16.1 %	15.9 %
Volkswagen Group	4.7 %	4.7 %	4.2 %
	97.2 %	95.2 %	96.8 %

Retail Market Share
Manufacturer	Jun 2022 Forecast	Jun 2021 Actual	May 2022 Actual
BMW	3.2 %	2.9 %	2.7 %
Daimler	2.7 %	2.0 %	2.4 %
Ford	11.0 %	7.7 %	12.5 %
GM	15.6 %	15.4 %	15.5 %
Honda	7.6 %	12.8 %	7.5 %
Hyundai	6.6 %	6.2 %	6.3 %
Kia	6.1 %	5.4 %	5.6 %
Nissan	4.0 %	6.1 %	4.4 %
Stellantis	10.5 %	10.4 %	10.9 %
Subaru	4.5 %	3.6 %	4.1 %
Tesla	4.4 %	2.0 %	4.8 %
Toyota	15.9 %	15.5 %	15.6 %
Volkswagen Group	5.3 %	5.0 %	4.6 %
	97.5 %	95.1 %	96.9 %

ATP
Manufacturer	Jun 2022 Forecast	Jun 2021 Actual	May 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$65,965	$60,344	$64,880	9.3 %	1.7 %
Daimler	$64,293	$59,320	$64,732	8.4 %	-0.7 %
Ford	$52,427	$47,972	$50,989	9.3 %	2.8 %
GM	$50,426	$47,391	$50,869	6.4 %	-0.9 %
Honda	$38,132	$32,538	$37,648	17.2 %	1.3 %
Hyundai	$37,699	$32,451	$37,299	16.2 %	1.1 %
Kia	$35,760	$29,824	$35,083	19.9 %	1.9 %
Nissan	$36,108	$31,969	$36,307	12.9 %	-0.5 %
Stellantis	$53,799	$48,687	$53,672	10.5 %	0.2 %
Subaru	$35,752	$34,344	$35,458	4.1 %	0.8 %
Toyota	$40,243	$37,689	$38,996	6.8 %	3.2 %
Volkswagen Group	$47,956	$44,080	$47,253	8.8 %	1.5 %
Industry	$45,272	$39,976	$44,583	13.2 %	1.5 %
	$5,296		$689

Incentives
Manufacturer	Jun 2022 Forecast	Jun 2021 Actual	May 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$1,139	$4,452	$1,182	-74.4 %	-3.7 %
Daimler	$1,178	$3,280	$1,253	-64.1 %	-6.0 %
Ford	$1,073	$2,484	$1,060	-56.8 %	1.3 %
GM	$1,878	$4,023	$1,725	-53.3 %	8.8 %
Honda	$718	$2,096	$790	-65.7 %	-9.1 %
Hyundai	$543	$1,884	$551	-71.2 %	-1.3 %
Kia	$628	$2,603	$656	-75.9 %	-4.3 %
Nissan	$1,359	$3,025	$1,580	-55.1 %	-14.0 %
Stellantis	$1,866	$2,812	$1,894	-33.7 %	-1.5 %
Subaru	$779	$1,395	$756	-44.1 %	3.1 %
Toyota	$782	$1,916	$787	-59.2 %	-0.5 %
Volkswagen Group	$1,125	$3,421	$1,137	-67.1 %	-1.1 %
Industry	$1,186	$2,732	$1,176	-56.6 %	0.9 %
	-$1,545		$10

Incentives as % of ATP
Manufacturer	Jun 2022 Forecast	Jun 2021 Actual	May 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	1.7 %	7.4 %	1.8 %	-76.6 %	-5.3 %
Daimler	1.8 %	5.5 %	1.9 %	-66.9 %	-5.4 %
Ford	2.0 %	5.2 %	2.1 %	-60.5 %	-1.5 %
GM	3.7 %	8.5 %	3.4 %	-56.1 %	9.8 %
Honda	1.9 %	6.4 %	2.1 %	-70.7 %	-10.3 %
Hyundai	1.4 %	5.8 %	1.5 %	-75.2 %	-2.4 %
Kia	1.8 %	8.7 %	1.9 %	-79.9 %	-6.1 %
Nissan	3.8 %	9.5 %	4.4 %	-60.2 %	-13.5 %
Stellantis	3.5 %	5.8 %	3.5 %	-40.0 %	-1.7 %
Subaru	2.2 %	4.1 %	2.1 %	-46.3 %	2.2 %
Toyota	1.9 %	5.1 %	2.0 %	-61.8 %	-3.6 %
Volkswagen Group	2.3 %	7.8 %	2.4 %	-69.8 %	-2.6 %
Industry	2.6 %	6.8 %	2.6 %	-61.7 %	-0.7 %

Revenue
Manufacturer	Jun 2022 Forecast	Jun 2021 Actual	May 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
Industry	$52,813,044,285	$52,003,460,283	$49,678,066,394	1.6 %	6.3 %

Quarterly Tables

Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Q2 2022	Q2 2021	Q1 2022	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	QoQ % Change	QoQ % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	89,226	105,901	80,590	-15.7 %	-15.7 %	10.7 %	7.8 %
Daimler	84,155	78,246	68,401	7.6 %	7.6 %	23.0 %	19.8 %
Ford	484,890	472,260	429,174	2.7 %	2.7 %	13.0 %	10.0 %
GM	575,751	683,696	509,108	-15.8 %	-15.8 %	13.1 %	10.2 %
Honda	247,937	486,419	266,418	-49.0 %	-49.0 %	-6.9 %	-9.4 %
Hyundai	198,351	251,081	171,399	-21.0 %	-21.0 %	15.7 %	12.7 %
Kia	183,636	218,961	151,194	-16.1 %	-16.1 %	21.5 %	18.3 %
Nissan	180,347	298,148	201,081	-39.5 %	-39.5 %	-10.3 %	-12.6 %
Stellantis	408,664	487,817	404,259	-16.2 %	-16.2 %	1.1 %	-1.5 %
Subaru	135,894	160,824	132,346	-15.5 %	-15.5 %	2.7 %	0.0 %
Tesla	142,150	68,259	130,860	108.3 %	108.3 %	8.6 %	5.8 %
Toyota	535,822	688,813	514,592	-22.2 %	-22.2 %	4.1 %	1.4 %
Volkswagen Group	146,674	204,424	113,231	-28.3 %	-28.3 %	29.5 %	26.2 %
Industry	3,535,451	4,399,779	3,323,953	-19.6 %	-19.6 %	6.4 %	3.6 %

Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Q2 2022	Q2 2021	Q1 2022	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	QoQ % Change	QoQ % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	87,734	101,575	78,805	-13.6 %	-13.6 %	11.3 %	8.4 %
Daimler	81,038	75,132	64,924	7.9 %	7.9 %	24.8 %	21.6 %
Ford	351,260	366,931	325,514	-4.3 %	-4.3 %	7.9 %	5.1 %
GM	466,722	599,229	403,778	-22.1 %	-22.1 %	15.6 %	12.6 %
Honda	244,719	470,440	258,883	-48.0 %	-48.0 %	-5.5 %	-7.9 %
Hyundai	198,044	228,474	169,737	-13.3 %	-13.3 %	16.7 %	13.6 %
Kia	172,359	200,746	137,801	-14.1 %	-14.1 %	25.1 %	21.8 %
Nissan	142,194	235,625	164,290	-39.7 %	-39.7 %	-13.4 %	-15.7 %
Stellantis	331,213	432,724	331,777	-23.5 %	-23.5 %	-0.2 %	-2.8 %
Subaru	132,316	157,208	128,244	-15.8 %	-15.8 %	3.2 %	0.5 %
Tesla	140,482	67,602	126,601	107.8 %	107.8 %	11.0 %	8.1 %
Toyota	504,779	601,027	459,059	-16.0 %	-16.0 %	10.0 %	7.1 %
Volkswagen Group	144,554	189,750	109,827	-23.8 %	-23.8 %	31.6 %	28.2 %
Industry	3,101,758	3,907,705	2,894,256	-20.6 %	-20.6 %	7.2 %	4.4 %

Total Market Share
Manufacturer	Q2 2022	Q2 2021	Q1 2022
BMW	2.5 %	2.4 %	2.4 %
Daimler	2.4 %	1.8 %	2.1 %
Ford	13.7 %	10.7 %	12.9 %
GM	16.3 %	15.5 %	15.3 %
Honda	7.0 %	11.1 %	8.0 %
Hyundai	5.6 %	5.7 %	5.2 %
Kia	5.2 %	5.0 %	4.5 %
Nissan	5.1 %	6.8 %	6.0 %
Stellantis	11.6 %	11.1 %	12.2 %
Subaru	3.8 %	3.7 %	4.0 %
Tesla	4.0 %	1.6 %	3.9 %
Toyota	15.2 %	15.7 %	15.5 %
Volkswagen Group	4.1 %	4.6 %	3.4 %
	96.6 %	95.6 %	95.4 %

Retail Market Share
Manufacturer	Q2 2022	Q2 2021	Q1 2022
BMW	2.8 %	2.6 %	2.7 %
Daimler	2.6 %	1.9 %	2.2 %
Ford	11.3 %	9.4 %	11.2 %
GM	15.0 %	15.3 %	14.0 %
Honda	7.9 %	12.0 %	8.9 %
Hyundai	6.4 %	5.8 %	5.9 %
Kia	5.6 %	5.1 %	4.8 %
Nissan	4.6 %	6.0 %	5.7 %
Stellantis	10.7 %	11.1 %	11.5 %
Subaru	4.3 %	4.0 %	4.4 %
Tesla	4.5 %	1.7 %	4.4 %
Toyota	16.3 %	15.4 %	15.9 %
Volkswagen Group	4.7 %	4.9 %	3.8 %
	96.6 %	95.4 %	95.3 %

ATP
Manufacturer	Q2 2022	Q2 2021	Q1 2022	YoY % Change		QoQ % Change
BMW	$66,337	$60,215	$63,860	10.2 %		3.9 %
Daimler	$65,722	$61,255	$73,231	7.3 %		-10.3 %
Ford	$50,917	$45,203	$47,952	12.6 %		6.2 %
GM	$50,558	$46,262	$50,664	9.3 %		-0.2 %
Honda	$37,479	$32,230	$36,632	16.3 %		2.3 %
Hyundai	$37,415	$31,645	$36,412	18.2 %		2.8 %
Kia	$35,222	$29,953	$33,925	17.6 %		3.8 %
Nissan	$36,073	$31,016	$33,724	16.3 %		7.0 %
Stellantis	$53,654	$47,083	$52,798	14.0 %		1.6 %
Subaru	$35,393	$32,644	$34,677	8.4 %		2.1 %
Toyota	$39,775	$36,621	$40,172	8.6 %		-1.0 %
Volkswagen Group	$47,441	$43,085	$45,346	10.1 %		4.6 %
Industry	$44,670	$38,954	$43,701	14.7 %		2.2 %
	$5,716		$969

Incentives
Manufacturer	Q2 2022	Q2 2021	Q1 2022	YoY % Change		QoQ % Change
BMW	$1,206	$4,713	$2,358	-74.4 %		-48.8 %
Daimler	$1,257	$3,574	$2,012	-64.8 %		-37.5 %
Ford	$1,193	$2,567	$1,824	-53.5 %		-34.6 %
GM	$1,847	$4,399	$1,974	-58.0 %		-6.4 %
Honda	$818	$2,167	$1,163	-62.3 %		-29.7 %
Hyundai	$620	$2,102	$890	-70.5 %		-30.3 %
Kia	$650	$2,549	$1,260	-74.5 %		-48.4 %
Nissan	$1,501	$3,502	$1,848	-57.1 %		-18.8 %
Stellantis	$1,893	$3,522	$2,413	-46.3 %		-21.5 %
Subaru	$753	$1,339	$901	-43.8 %		-16.5 %
Toyota	$803	$2,219	$1,025	-63.8 %		-21.6 %
Volkswagen Group	$1,169	$3,730	$1,769	-68.7 %		-33.9 %
Industry	$1,228	$3,003	$1,631	-59.1 %		-24.7 %
	-$1,774		-$403

(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that lets auto buyers and sellers connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. With access to an expansive inventory provided by our Certified Dealers, we are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto shopping experience as we seek to bring more of the process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new, used and Certified Pre-Owned vehicles. When they are ready, shoppers in TrueCar's marketplace can connect with a Certified Dealer in our network, who shares our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great auto shopping experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter.

 

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SOURCE TrueCar.com

FAQ

What are the new vehicle sales projections for TrueCar in June 2022?

TrueCar projects new vehicle sales to reach 1,166,569 units in June 2022.

How much have electric vehicle leads increased in June 2022?

Interest in electric vehicle leads has surged over 100% compared to June 2021.

What is the expected decline in retail vehicle deliveries for June 2022?

Retail vehicle deliveries are expected to decline by 15% year-over-year for June 2022.

How have average transaction prices changed in June 2022?

Average transaction prices are projected to be up 13% from last year as of June 2022.

What is the impact of rising interest rates on vehicle loans?

There has been a 30% increase in the mix of loan terms of 84 months or more due to rising interest rates.