OCTOBER HARVARD-CAPS HARRIS POLL: REPUBLICANS ARE INCHING CLOSER TOWARDS A WAVE AS THEY WIN OVER VOTERS ON INFLATION, CRIME, AND IMMIGRATION

Rhea-AI Summary

Results from the October Harvard-CAPS Harris Poll reveal Republicans lead the generic Congressional ballot 53% to 47% among likely voters. Key issues driving voter sentiment include inflation, crime, and immigration, with a notable 55% of Americans blaming Biden for inflation. Despite popular policies like marijuana pardons and student debt relief, these initiatives are failing to sway voters decisively. Only 36% view the marijuana pardon positively towards voting Democratic. Additionally, 74% fear the Fed will trigger a recession, while an overwhelming 84% believe the U.S. is currently in or will soon enter a recession.

Positive

• Republicans lead the Congressional ballot 53%-47%, indicating a potential wave election.
• Key issues like inflation, crime, and immigration are driving voter support for Republicans.

Negative

• 55% of Americans, including 42% of Democrats, blame Biden for inflation, signaling dissatisfaction.
• 58% of voters lack confidence in the Biden administration's ability to control inflation.
• 74% believe the Federal Reserve may cause a recession, contributing to economic anxiety.
• Biden's policies on marijuana pardons and student debt relief have limited electoral impact, as 36% and 41%, respectively, are more likely to vote Republican due to these policies.

REPUBLICANS ARE WINNING THE GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT 53% TO 47% AMONG LIKELY VOTERS

55% OF AMERICANS BLAME BIDEN FOR INFLATION, INCLUDING 42% OF DEMOCRATS

BIDEN'S DEBT RELIEF AND MARIJUANA PARDONS ARE POPULAR BUT DON'T MOVE THE NEEDLE ELECTORALLY FOR DEMOCRATS  

NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Oct. 14, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the October Harvard-CAPS Harris Poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.

Republicans are connecting with voters on their key issues of inflation, crime, and immigration, while Americans see Democrats as mostly focused on January 6, women's rights, and the environment. Biden continues to struggle on the economy, which is the key issue: 84% of Americans think the US is in a recession now or will be by next year, and 58% are not confident in Biden's ability to hold inflation at bay.

Other topics surveyed in this month's poll include voter views on Biden's marijuana pardon and student debt plans, and US foreign policy around oil and Ukraine. Download key results here.

"Republicans are inching back towards a wave election after a summer when abortion seemed to turn the tides," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard-CAPS Harris Poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "People are more motivated to vote when they are upset, and the Republicans are capturing voter dissatisfaction on inflation, crime, and immigration. Americans are suffering incredible economic anxiety on top of normal buyer's remorse for the president and his party in a midterm."

REPUBLICANS ARE CONNECTING ON INFLATION, CRIME, AND IMMIGRATION

• Republicans are winning the generic Congressional ballot 53-47 among likely voters.
• Inflation, crime, and immigration are the most important issues voters picked heading into the midterms – and based on each, voters say they are over 10 points more likely to vote Republican than Democratic.
• Americans think Republican leaders are most concerned with immigration, inflation, and the economy – while Democratic leaders are most concerned with January 6, women's rights, and the environment.

AMERICANS BLAME BIDEN AND THE FED FOR INFLATION

• 55% of Americans blame Biden for inflation – including 42% of Democrats.
• 58% are not confident in the Biden administration's ability to keep inflation at bay.
• Americans are worried about the Fed: 74% think the Fed will cause a recession.
• 84% of voters think the US is in a recession now or will be in one by next year.

BIDEN'S DEBT RELIEF AND MARIJUANA PARDON POLICIES ARE POPULAR BUT DON'T MOVE THE NEEDLE ELECTORALLY

• 67% approve of Biden's marijuana pardon, but it has no net effect on the electorate: 36% of voters say it makes them more likely to vote Republican, and 35% say more likely to vote Democratic.
• It's a similar story for Biden's student debt relief: 58% support his act – but 41% say it has made them more likely to vote Republican, compared to 35% Democratic.

AMERICANS LEAN TOWARDS HAWKISH FOREIGN POLICY ON OIL AND RUSSIA

• 65% oppose easing sanctions on countries like Iran and Venezuela as a way to lower gas and oil prices; instead, they want greater output of American oil and gas.
• 54% think the US should cut military sales and technical aid to the Saudi Arabian government in response to their oil production cut.
• Voters are split on whether or not Biden's policies on Ukraine are pushing us towards nuclear war, and a majority remain supportive of providing aid to Ukraine.
• If Russia uses a nuclear weapon on Ukraine, 59% of Americans are willing to send in NATO.

The October Harvard-CAPS Harris Poll survey was conducted online within the United States from October 12-13, 2022, among 2,010 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms. 

About The Harris Poll

The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.

About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies
The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics.  Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.

 

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SOURCE Stagwell Inc.

FAQ

What were the findings of the October Harvard-CAPS Harris Poll regarding STGW?

The poll shows Republicans leading 53% to 47% among likely voters, connecting on issues like inflation, crime, and immigration.

How do Americans view Biden's handling of inflation according to the October poll?

55% of Americans blame Biden for inflation, with 58% lacking confidence in his ability to manage it.

What impact do Biden's marijuana pardon and student debt relief have on voter sentiment related to STGW?

While 67% approve of the marijuana pardon, it does not significantly impact voter decisions; 41% say it makes them more likely to vote Republican.

What economic concerns are highlighted in the October Harvard-CAPS Harris Poll?

84% of voters believe the U.S. is in a recession or will be soon, with 74% fearing that the Fed's actions could cause one.