JUNE HARVARD CAPS / HARRIS POLL: NEARLY 3 IN 4 VOTERS SEE BIDEN AS TOO OLD FOR RE-ELECTION, JUMPING 11 POINTS AFTER WEAK DEBATE

Rhea-AI Summary

Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) released findings from the June Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, revealing a sharp decline in President Joe Biden's approval ratings and increasing voter concerns over economics and immigration. Biden's approval dropped to 40%, the lowest since July 2022. Post-debate, 74% of voters view Biden as too old for re-election, and 66% question his mental fitness, leading to increased support for Trump. Economic pessimism has risen, with 62% describing their financial situation as fair or poor. Regarding immigration, 57% of voters link mass immigration to increased crime and strained resources. Although interest in the Israel-Hamas conflict declined, support for Israel remains high at 80%.

Positive

• Support for Israel remains high at 80%, indicating stable public opinion in favor of strong U.S.-Israel relations.

Negative

• Biden's approval rating dropped to 40%, his lowest since July 2022.
• 74% of voters believe Biden is too old for re-election, an 11-point increase post-debate.
• 66% of voters have doubts about Biden's mental fitness, a 12-point increase post-debate.
• Voters are 7 points more likely to vote for Trump and 20 points less likely to vote for Biden after the debate.
• 62% of voters describe their personal economic situation as fair or poor, up 7 points from May.
• 52% of voters report worsening personal financial situations, especially among Republican and rural voters.
• Biden's approval on handling inflation dropped to 34%, the lowest in two years.
• 57% of voters associate mass immigration with increased crime and strained resources.

BIDEN APPROVAL LOWEST SINCE JULY 2022 AS ATTITUDES TOWARD ECONOMY WORSEN

NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass., July 1, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the June Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.

President Joe Biden's overall approval rating dropped to 40%, his lowest since July 2022, while inflation and immigration remained voters' top two concerns. The poll also covers public opinion on the first presidential debate and immigration policy. Download key results here.

"The idea of the debate was to shake things up and break some of Trump's momentum, but if anything it did the opposite," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "Public opinion also shows a dim view of the state of the economy and inflation, reinforcing the notion that Americans want change right now."

DEBATE HURTS BIDEN, HELPS TRUMP

• 74% of voters think Biden is too old to be President, an 11-point increase after the debate.
• 66% of voters have doubts about Biden's mental fitness for office, a 12-point increase after the debate.
• Voters are on net 7 points more likely to vote for Trump after the debate and 20 points less likely to vote for Biden.

ATTITUDES TOWARD ECONOMY WORSEN

• 62% of voters characterize their personal economics as fair or poor, up 7 points from May.
• 52% of voters say their personal financial situation is getting worse, especially among Republican (69%) and rural (63%) voters.
• Biden's approval on handling inflation dropped to 34%, his lowest in two years.

TRUMP CONTINUES TO LEAD HORSE RACE

• Trump leads Biden by 4 points in the horserace, down 2 points from last month.
• 41% of voters (a plurality) say Trump's guilty verdict in the New York hush money case has no impact on their vote, while 31% say they are more likely to vote for Trump and 27% say less likely.
• Marco Rubio and Tim Scott are the VP nominees who would be most helpful to Trump.

IMMIGRATION-CRIME NEXUS CONTINUES TO CONCERN VOTERS

• Voters say the top issues caused by mass immigration are an increase in violence/crime (57%), a strain on resources such as healthcare and education (57%), and a rise in homelessness (55%).
• 56% of voters think Biden's recent asylum ban for migrants caught illegally crossing the U.S.-Mexico border is "too little, too late."
• 52% of voters support Biden's recent executive order aimed at expediting citizenship for the undocumented spouses of U.S. citizens.

SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL REMAINS HIGH

• 64% of voters are paying close attention to the Israel-Hamas war, down 9 points from May, but support for Israel remains consistent at 80%. 
• 67% of voters say Israel should retaliate against Hezbollah until they stop firing rockets into the north (ages 18-24: 53%; ages 65+: 85%).

The June Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on June 28-30, 2024, among 2,090 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms. 

About The Harris Poll & HarrisX

The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.

HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies
The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics. Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.

CONTACT: 
Sarah Arvizo
pr@stagwellglobal.com

 

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SOURCE Stagwell Inc.

FAQ

What was President Biden's approval rating in the June Harvard CAPS / Harris poll?

President Biden's approval rating dropped to 40%, the lowest since July 2022.

How has voter perception of Biden's age changed after the first debate?

74% of voters now believe Biden is too old for re-election, an 11-point increase after the debate.

What percentage of voters doubt Biden's mental fitness post-debate?

66% of voters question Biden's mental fitness, a 12-point increase post-debate.

How has the first presidential debate affected voter support for Trump and Biden?

Voters are 7 points more likely to vote for Trump and 20 points less likely to vote for Biden after the debate.

What are voters' main concerns regarding immigration according to the June Harvard CAPS / Harris poll?

57% of voters link mass immigration to increased crime and strained resources.

What is the public opinion on Biden's handling of inflation?

Biden's approval on handling inflation dropped to 34%, the lowest in two years.

How do voters rate their current personal financial situation?

62% of voters describe their personal financial situation as fair or poor, up 7 points from May.

What is the latest public support level for Israel in the Israel-Hamas conflict?

Support for Israel remains high at 80%, despite a 9-point decline in overall attention to the conflict.