SUPPLY CHAIN SPARE CAPACITY INCREASES FOR 3RD CONSECUTIVE MONTH AND NOW AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE JULY 2023 AS GLOBAL ECONOMIC WEAKNESS INTENSIFIES: GEP GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN VOLATILITY INDEX
The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index decreased to -0.43 in September, indicating the highest level of global supply chain spare capacity since July 2023. This rise in underutilized vendor capacity was driven by a further deterioration in global demand, with factory purchasing activity at its weakest year-to-date across all major continents.
Key findings include:
- North American supplier spare capacity increased significantly, with U.S. manufacturers lowering purchasing volumes aggressively
- Asian supply chain spare capacity rose to a year-to-date high, with China's factory procurement activity falling for the third straight month
- Europe's industrial recession intensified, reflecting challenges faced by major manufacturers
- Global transportation costs dipped to their lowest since July 2023
- Material shortages indicator fell to its lowest level since January 2020
L'Indice di Volatilità della Catena di Fornitura Globale GEP è sceso a -0,43 a settembre, indicando il massimo livello di capacità di riserva nella catena di fornitura globale da luglio 2023. Questo aumento della capacità inutilizzata dei fornitori è stato spinto da un ulteriore deterioramento della domanda globale, con l'attività di acquisto delle fabbriche ai minimi stagionali di quest'anno in tutti i principali continenti.
Tra i principali risultati troviamo:
- La capacità di riserva dei fornitori nordamericani è aumentata in modo significativo, con i produttori statunitensi che hanno drasticamente ridotto i volumi di acquisto.
- La capacità di riserva della catena di fornitura asiatica è salita ai massimi stagionali, con l'attività di approvvigionamento delle fabbriche in Cina in calo per il terzo mese consecutivo.
- La recessione industriale in Europa si è intensificata, riflettendo le sfide affrontate dai principali produttori.
- I costi di trasporto globali sono scesi ai minimi dall luglio 2023.
- Il indicatore di carenza di materiali è sceso ai livelli più bassi dal gennaio 2020.
El Índice de Volatilidad de la Cadena de Suministro Global GEP disminuyó a -0.43 en septiembre, indicando el nivel más alto de capacidad de reserva de la cadena de suministro global desde julio de 2023. Este aumento en la capacidad no utilizada de los proveedores fue impulsado por un further deterioro en la demanda global, con la actividad de compras en fábricas en su punto más débil del año hasta la fecha en todos los principales continentes.
Los hallazgos clave incluyen:
- La capacidad de reserva de los proveedores norteamericanos aumentó significativamente, con los fabricantes de EE. UU. reduciendo agresivamente los volúmenes de compra.
- La capacidad de reserva de la cadena de suministro asiática alcanzó un máximo en lo que va del año, con la actividad de adquisición de fábricas en China cayendo por tercer mes consecutivo.
- La recesión industrial de Europa se intensificó, reflejando los desafíos que enfrentan los principales fabricantes.
- Los costos de transporte global cayeron a su nivel más bajo desde julio de 2023.
- El indicador de escasez de materiales cayó a su nivel más bajo desde enero de 2020.
GEP 글로벌 공급망 변동성 지수가 9월에 -0.43으로 감소하여 2023년 7월 이후 가장 높은 글로벌 공급망 여유 용량 수준을 나타냈습니다. 공급업체의 미활용 용량 증가는 글로벌 수요의 추가 악화에 의해 촉발되었으며, 모든 주요 대륙에서 공장 구매 활동이 연초 이래 가장 낮은 수준에 있습니다.
주요 발견 내용은 다음과 같습니다:
- 북미 공급업체의 여유 용량이 크게 증가했으며, 미국 제조업체들이 구매량을 적극적으로 줄이고 있습니다.
- 아시아 공급망의 여유 용량이 연초 최고 수준으로 상승했으며, 중국의 공장 조달 활동이 세 달 연속 감소했습니다.
- 유럽의 산업 경기 침체가 심화되어 주요 제조업체들이 직면한 문제를 반영하고 있습니다.
- 글로벌 운송 비용이 2023년 7월 이후 최저 수준으로 떨어졌습니다.
- 자재 부족 지표가 2020년 1월 이후 가장 낮은 수준으로 감소했습니다.
L'Indice de Volatilité de la Chaîne d'Approvisionnement Mondiale GEP a diminué à -0,43 en septembre, indiquant le plus haut niveau de capacité de réserve de la chaîne d'approvisionnement mondiale depuis juillet 2023. Cette augmentation de la capacité inexploitée des fournisseurs a été entraînée par une détérioration supplémentaire de la demande mondiale, l'activité d'achat des usines étant à son plus bas niveau de l'année sur tous les principaux continents.
Les principales conclusions comprennent :
- La capacité de réserve des fournisseurs nord-américains a considérablement augmenté, les fabricants américains réduisant agressivement les volumes d'achat.
- La capacité de réserve de la chaîne d'approvisionnement asiatique a atteint un niveau record pour l'année, l'activité d'approvisionnement des usines chinoises diminuant pour le troisième mois consécutif.
- La récession industrielle en Europe s'est intensifiée, reflétant les défis auxquels sont confrontés les principaux fabricants.
- Les coûts de transport mondiaux ont chuté à leur plus bas niveau depuis juillet 2023.
- L'indicateur de pénurie de matériaux a chuté à son niveau le plus bas depuis janvier 2020.
Der GEP-Index für die Volatilität der globalen Lieferkette sank im September auf -0,43 und zeigt das höchste Niveau der globalen Lieferkettenreservekapazität seit Juli 2023 an. Dieser Anstieg der ungenutzten Anbieter-Kapazität wurde durch eine weitere Verschlechterung der globalen Nachfrage verursacht, wobei die Einkaufsaktivität der Fabriken in allen wichtigen Kontinenten auf dem niedrigsten Stand des Jahres lag.
Wesentliche Ergebnisse sind:
- Die Reservekapazität nordamerikanischer Anbieter hat erheblich zugenommen, während US-Hersteller die Einkaufsmengen aggressiv gesenkt haben.
- Die Reservekapazität der asiatischen Lieferkette erreichte einen Jahreshöchstwert, wobei die Beschaffungsaktivität in chinesischen Fabriken im dritten Monat in Folge zurückging.
- Die industrielle Rezession in Europa verschärfte sich, was die Herausforderungen der großen Hersteller widerspiegelt.
- Die globalen Transportkosten fielen auf den niedrigsten Stand seit Juli 2023.
- Der Indikator für Materialmangel fiel auf den niedrigsten Stand seit Januar 2020.
- Global transportation costs decreased to their lowest level since July 2023
- Material shortages indicator fell to its lowest level since January 2020, indicating improved global raw material availability
- Labor supply is generally capable of meeting demand, with reports of staff shortages in line with historically typical levels
- GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index decreased to -0.43, its lowest level in 14 months
- Global demand for raw materials, commodities, and intermediate goods deteriorated more quickly in September
- Factory purchasing activity was at its weakest in the year-to-date across all major continents
- North American supplier spare capacity increased significantly, indicating a slowing U.S. economy
- China's factory procurement activity fell for the third straight month
- Europe's industrial recession intensified, reflecting challenges faced by major manufacturers
Insights
The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index reveals significant economic headwinds across major global markets. The index dropped to -0.43 in September, indicating the highest level of supply chain spare capacity since July 2023. This trend suggests a weakening global demand and potential economic slowdown.
Key observations:
- North American supply chain spare capacity increased sharply, with U.S. manufacturers reducing purchasing volumes.
- Asian markets, particularly China, showed declining factory procurement activity for the third consecutive month.
- Europe's industrial recession deepened, impacted by competitive pressures from China, high energy costs and a struggling eurozone economy.
These indicators point to a global manufacturing slowdown, which could have ripple effects across various sectors. Investors should monitor potential impacts on companies reliant on global supply chains and consider the implications for economic growth forecasts.
The declining GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index signals potential challenges for companies across various sectors, particularly those heavily reliant on global manufacturing and supply chains. This trend may lead to:
- Reduced revenue and earnings for industrial and manufacturing companies
- Potential inventory management issues and pricing pressures
- Increased focus on cost-cutting measures to maintain profitability
However, the increased spare capacity could benefit companies by potentially lowering input costs and easing supply constraints. Investors should closely monitor Q3 and Q4 earnings reports for signs of margin pressure or reduced guidance, especially in sectors like technology, automotive and consumer goods. The geopolitical risks mentioned, such as Middle East tensions and potential trade barriers, add further uncertainty to the economic outlook.
North America factory purchasing activity deteriorates more quickly in September, with demand at its weakest year-to-date, signaling a quickly slowingU.S. economy- Factory procurement activity in
China fell for a third straight month, and devastation from Typhoon Yagi hit vendors feeding Southeast Asian markets likeVietnam Europe's industrial recession deepens, leading to an even larger increase in supplier spare capacity
The rise in underutilized vendor capacity was driven by a further deterioration in global demand. Factory purchasing activity was at its weakest in the year-to-date, with procurement trends in all major continents worsening in September and signaling gloomier prospects for economies heading into Q4.
Notably, supplier spare capacity shot up again in
In
"September is the fourth straight month of declining demand and the third month running that the world's supply chains have spare capacity, as manufacturing becomes an increasing drag on the major economies," explained Jagadish Turimella, president, GEP. "With the potential of a widening war in the
SEPTEMBER 2024 KEY FINDINGS
- DEMAND: Global demand for raw materials, commodities and other intermediate goods deteriorated more quickly in September, reflecting a stronger downturn in procurement activity across many major global economies, such as the
U.S. ,China andGermany . - INVENTORIES: In September, reports of stockpiling due to price or supply concerns remained below the long-term average.
- MATERIAL SHORTAGES: The item shortages indicator fell to its lowest level since January 2020, indicating improved global raw material availability as factories retrench.
- LABOR SHORTAGES: Reports of staff shortages leading to a rise in backlogs at manufacturers were in line with historically typical levels in September. This indicates that labor supply is generally capable of meeting demand.
- TRANSPORTATION: Global transportation costs once again dipped in September and were the lowest since July 2023.
REGIONAL SUPPLY CHAIN VOLATILITY
NORTH AMERICA : Index fell to a 15-month low of -0.78, from -0.62, signaling a further increase in spare vendor capacity. The U.S. market drove this, with the economyslowing ahead of the presidential election.EUROPE : Index fell to a nine-month low of -0.74, from -0.53, indicating a further intensification of the continent's industrial downturn.Germany continues to pull other parts of the region down with it.U.K. : Index fractionally rose to -0.12, from -0.14. TheU.K. is demonstrating some resilience to wider global economic headwinds — partly reflecting an ongoing post-election bounce.ASIA : Index at a year-to-date low of -0.36, down from -0.07, signalling the highest level of spare vendor capacity since December 2023. In addition to a slowing Chinese market, Typhoon Yagi dented supplier activity inSoutheast Asia .
For more information, visit www.gep.com/volatility.
Note: Full historical data dating back to January 2005 is available for subscription. Please contact economics@spglobal.com.
The next release of the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index will be 8 a.m. ET, Nov. 12, 2024.
About the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index
The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index is produced by S&P Global and GEP. It is derived from S&P Global's PMI® surveys, sent to companies in over 40 countries, totaling around 27,000 companies. The headline figure is a weighted sum of six sub-indices derived from PMI data, PMI Comments Trackers and PMI Commodity Price & Supply Indicators compiled by S&P Global.
- A value above 0 indicates that supply chain capacity is being stretched and supply chain volatility is increasing. The further above 0, the greater the extent to which capacity is being stretched.
- A value below 0 indicates that supply chain capacity is being underutilized, reducing supply chain volatility. The further below 0, the greater the extent to which capacity is being underutilized.
For more information about the methodology, click here.
About GEP
GEP® delivers AI-powered procurement and supply chain solutions that help global enterprises become more agile and resilient, operate more efficiently and effectively, gain competitive advantage, boost profitability and increase shareholder value. Fresh thinking, innovative products, unrivaled domain expertise, smart, passionate people — this is how GEP SOFTWARE™, GEP STRATEGY™ and GEP MANAGED SERVICES™ together deliver procurement and supply chain solutions of unprecedented scale, power and effectiveness. Headquartered in
About S&P Global
S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) S&P Global provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses and individuals with the right data, expertise and connected technology so that they can make decisions with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments to guiding them through ESG and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges and accelerate progress for the world. We are widely sought after by many of the world's leading organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world's leading organizations plan for tomorrow, today.
Media Contacts | ||
Derek Creevey | Joe Hayes | S&P Global Market Intelligence |
View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/supply-chain-spare-capacity-increases-for-3rd-consecutive-month-and-now-at-highest-level-since-july-2023-as-global-economic-weakness-intensifies-gep-global-supply-chain-volatility-index-302273459.html
SOURCE GEP
FAQ
What was the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index value for September 2024?
How did global demand for raw materials and commodities change in September 2024?
What was the state of material shortages in September 2024 according to the GEP index?
How did transportation costs change in September 2024 according to the GEP index?
What was the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index value for North America in September 2024?
