S&P Global Market Intelligence Announces Top 10 Economic Insights for 2025
S&P Global Market Intelligence has released its Top 10 Economic Insights for 2025, highlighting a challenging economic outlook dominated by policy uncertainties. The report, presented by Global Economist Ken Wattret, indicates that renewed inflationary pressures are expected to pause the Fed's easing cycle, leading to less accommodative global financial conditions.
Key insights include: a U.S. soft landing with increased downside risks; slower growth in mainland China due to potential tariffs and property sector challenges; Western European economies facing technical recession risks; emerging economies confronting less favorable financial conditions; divergent inflation dynamics across regions; and persistent U.S. dollar strength. The report also addresses core inflation trends, commodity price forecasts, and concerns about fiscal deficits and debt sustainability.
S&P Global Market Intelligence ha pubblicato i suoi 10 principali approfondimenti economici per il 2025, evidenziando un prospettiva economica sfidante dominata da incertezze politiche. Il rapporto, presentato dal Chief Economist globale Ken Wattret, indica che le rinnovate pressioni inflazionistiche si prevede fermeranno il ciclo di allentamento della Fed, portando a condizioni finanziarie globali meno accomodanti.
Tra i principali approfondimenti ci sono: un atterraggio morbido per gli Stati Uniti con rischi al ribasso in aumento; crescita più lenta nella Cina continentale a causa di potenziali dazi e sfide nel settore immobiliare; economie dell'Europa occidentale che affrontano rischi di recessione tecnica; economie emergenti che si trovano ad affrontare condizioni finanziarie meno favorevoli; dinamiche inflazionistiche divergenti tra le regioni; e la persistenza della forza del dollaro statunitense. Il rapporto affronta anche le tendenze dell'inflazione di base, le previsioni sui prezzi delle materie prime e le preoccupazioni riguardanti i deficit fiscali e la sostenibilità del debito.
S&P Global Market Intelligence ha lanzado sus 10 principales perspectivas económicas para 2025, destacando un panorama económico desafiante dominado por incertidumbres políticas. El informe, presentado por el Economista Global Ken Wattret, indica que se espera que las renovadas presiones inflacionarias detengan el ciclo de relajación de la Fed, lo que llevará a condiciones financieras globales menos acomodaticias.
Los aspectos clave incluyen: un aterrizaje suave para EE.UU. con mayores riesgos a la baja; un crecimiento más lento en China continental debido a posibles aranceles y desafíos en el sector inmobiliario; economías de Europa occidental enfrentando riesgos de recesión técnica; economías emergentes enfrentando condiciones financieras menos favorables; dinámicas inflacionarias divergentes entre regiones; y la persistente fortaleza del dólar estadounidense. El informe también aborda las tendencias de inflación subyacente, las previsiones de precios de materias primas y las preocupaciones sobre déficits fiscales y la sostenibilidad de la deuda.
S&P Global Market Intelligence는 2025년 경제 통찰력 TOP 10을 발표하며 정책 불확실성에 의해 지배되는 도전적인 경제 전망을 강조했습니다. 글로벌 경제학자 켄 와트렛이 발표한 이 보고서는 재발하는 인플레이션 압력이 연준의 완화 사이클을 중단시킬 것으로 예상되며, 글로벌 금융 조건이 덜 호의적으로 변할 것이라고 지적합니다.
주요 통찰력에는: 하방 위험이 증가한 미국의 부드러운 착륙; 잠재적 관세와 부동산 부문의 도전으로 인해 느려지는 중국 본토의 성장; 기술적 경기침체 위험에 직면한 서유럽 경제; 덜 유리한 금융 조건에 직면한 신흥 경제국들; 지역 간의 인플레이션 역학의 차별화; 그리고 지속적인 미국 달러의 강세가 포함됩니다. 이 보고서는 또한 핵심 인플레이션 추세, 원자재 가격 예측 및 재정 적자와 부채 지속 가능성에 대한 우려를 다룹니다.
S&P Global Market Intelligence a publié ses 10 principales analyses économiques pour 2025, mettant en avant une perspective économique difficile dominée par des incertitudes politiques. Le rapport, présenté par l'économiste mondial Ken Wattret, indique que les pressions inflationnistes renaissantes devraient interrompre le cycle de réduction de la Fed, conduisant à des conditions financières mondiales moins accommodantes.
Les points clés incluent : un atterrissage en douceur pour les États-Unis avec des risques d'effondrement accrus ; une croissance plus lente en Chine continentale en raison de possibles droits de douane et des défis dans le secteur immobilier ; les économies d'Europe occidentale confrontées à des risques de récession technique ; les économies émergentes confrontées à des conditions financières moins favorables ; des dynamiques d'inflation divergentes entre les régions ; et la force persistante du dollar américain. Le rapport aborde également les tendances de l'inflation sous-jacente, les prévisions des prix des matières premières et les inquiétudes concernant les déficits fiscaux et la durabilité de la dette.
S&P Global Market Intelligence hat seine Top 10 Wirtschaftseinblicke für 2025 veröffentlicht und hebt einen herausfordernden Wirtschaftsausblick hervor, der von politischen Unsicherheiten geprägt ist. Der Bericht, vorgestellt von dem globalen Ökonomen Ken Wattret, weist darauf hin, dass erneute inflationäre Druckphasen erwartet werden, die den Lockerungszyklus der Fed stoppen werden, was zu weniger entgegenkommenden globalen finanziellen Bedingungen führen wird.
Wichtige Einsichten umfassen: eine sanfte Landung der USA mit steigenden Abwärtsrisiken; langsameres Wachstum im Festlandchina aufgrund möglicher Zölle und Herausforderungen im Immobiliensektor; westliche europäische Volkswirtschaften, die mit technischen Rezessionsrisiken kämpfen; Schwellenländer, die ungünstigere Finanzierungsbedingungen erleben; divergierende Inflationsdynamiken in den Regionen; und anhaltende Stärke des US-Dollars. Der Bericht behandelt auch die Trends der Kerninflation, Vorhersagen zu Rohstoffpreisen und Bedenken hinsichtlich fiskalischer Defizite sowie der Nachhaltigkeit der Schulden.
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Annual look-ahead highlights a more challenging economic outlook
"Heading into 2025, the focus is squarely on post-election policy shifts in the
S&P Global Market Intelligence's Top 10 Economic Insights for 2025 include:
U.S. Economic Outlook: Although theU.S. economy is still forecast to experience a soft landing, downside risks have increased, related to labor shortages and potential tariffs. The Federal Reserve is expected to pause its easing cycle in mid-2025.- Mainland China Growth: Growth in mainland
China is expected to slow, impacted by a potential increase in tariffs on exports to theU.S. and property sector challenges. Despite additional stimulus measures, annual GDP growth is likely to fall short of the government's target. - Western Europe Conditions: Export-sensitive Western European economies face increased risks of technical recessions due to potential disruption to traditional trade patterns and political instability. Central banks in the region are forecast to continue to lower their policy rates.
- Emerging Economies Growth: Emerging economies will contend with less favorable financial conditions. Key growth drivers in some regions will differ from the norm.
- Divergent National Inflation Dynamics: Renewed inflationary pressures are expected in the
U.S. given the expected policy shifts, while disinflationary forces are forecast to persist inWestern Europe and mainlandChina . - Core Inflation Trends: Goods inflation is expected to remain low in the very short term, but should tariffs increase, they will exert upward pressure in 2025. A further moderation in services inflation will therefore be key to keeping core inflation rates low.
- Commodity Price Trends: Crude oil and non-energy commodity prices are forecast to mitigate some of the inflationary impetus should tariffs increase.
- Global Financial Conditions: The projected pause in monetary policy easing by the
U.S. Federal Reserve means less accommodative global financial conditions, dampening growth along with structural headwinds. U.S. Dollar Strength: TheU.S. dollar's elevation will persist. The Mexican peso's underperformance is expected to continue, while widening interest rate differentials and weak economic conditions will weigh on the euro andUK pound. The yen is forecast to outperform, given continued monetary policy divergence.- Fiscal Deficits and Debt Concerns: Persistent high fiscal deficits will aggravate already elevated debt burdens, with less favorable relative growth and interest rate dynamics posing an increasing risk to debt sustainability.
To request a copy of S&P Global Market Intelligence's Top 10 Economic Insights for 2025, please contact press.mi@spglobal.com.
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SOURCE S&P Global Market Intelligence
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