S&P Global Mobility: US auto sales advance again in June

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S&P Global Mobility projects US new light vehicle sales to reach 1.40 million units in June 2024, a 1% increase year-over-year, achieving a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.2 million units, the highest since May 2021.

Despite challenges such as a cyberattack on dealer management software and a stop-sale for Toyota and Lexus vehicles, June sales are expected to follow May's strong performance. The second quarter's SAAR is estimated at 16.0 million units, the highest since Q2 2021.

Retail advertised inventory grew to 2.79 million vehicles by the end of May, marking a 0.4% rise from April and a significant 61% increase from last year. Electric vehicle (EV) inventory is expanding faster than the overall market, with BEV share expected to reach 7.5% in June.

S&P Global Mobility forecasts 2024 new vehicle sales to total approximately 16.0 million units, a 2% growth from 2023.

New light vehicle sales in June are expected to maintain pace with the previous month result and translate to one of the stronger seasonally adjusted results since 2021

SOUTHFIELD, Mich., June 26, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- S&P Global Mobility projects new light vehicle sales volume in June 2024 to reach 1.40 million units, up approximately 1% year over year. This volume would translate to an estimated sales pace of 16.2 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR), which would be the highest monthly mark for this metric since May 2021.

While recent events such as the dealer management software cyberattack and stop-sale announcement on certain Toyota and Lexus vehicles could hamper some of the progress realized earlier in the month, June US auto sales are expected to follow-up the notable May advance with another solid result.

"June auto sales are expected to sustain the recent progress in the market," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. "Supported by growing incentive and inventory levels, the monthly sales pace will have advanced every month in the second quarter and the estimated 16.0 million-unit SAAR average projected for the period would be the highest quarterly mark since Q2 2021.  Mixed signals regarding the outlook for the second half of the year remain entrenched though, as new vehicle affordability concerns remain prevalent, and inventories are not expected to advance as strongly as they have done over the past 12 months." 

According to Matt Trommer, associate director, S&P Global Mobility, "Analysis of May retail advertised inventory data in the U.S. finds that inventory is still on the rise, with electric vehicle (EV) inventory growing faster than the overall industry. Available retail advertised inventory at the end of May continued to grow, reaching 2.79 million vehicles, up 0.4% compared to April and 61% over last May. This is the 12th consecutive month of increases (22 of the last 23 months have grown vs. the prior month), but the rate of increase is the lowest since May 2023."   

Mixed signals continue to prevail within the new vehicle demand environment, and we do not expect sales volumes over the next several months to dynamically change from the current trend. S&P Global Mobility projects calendar year 2024 new vehicle sales volume to reach approximately 16.0 million units, growth of over 2%, or an incremental 374,000 units, from the 2023 level.

US Light Vehicle Sales
		Jun 24 (Est)	May 24	Jun 23
Total Light Vehicle	Units, NSA	1,402,300	1,429,028	1,368,713
	In millions, SAAR	16.2	15.9	16.1
Light Truck	In millions, SAAR	13.0	12.8	12.9
Passenger Car	In millions, SAAR	3.2	3.1	3.2
Source: S&P Global Mobility (Est), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Continued development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales remains an assumption in the longer term S&P Global Mobility light vehicle sales forecast.  In the immediate term, some month-to-month volatility is anticipated. June BEV share is expected to reach 7.5%, similar to the month prior reading and continued advancement from the Q1 2024 results. BEV share is expected to advance over the next several periods, assisted by the the roll outs of vehicles such as the Chevrolet Equinox EV, Honda Prologue and Fiat 500e, all scheduled for launch over the next few months, followed by new BEVs such as the Jeep Wagoneer S and Volkswagen ID. Buzz slated for release in the second half of 2024.

About S&P Global Mobility

At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers, and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.

S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.

Media Contact:

Michelle Culver
S&P Global Mobility
248.728.7496 or 248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com

 

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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility

FAQ

What is the projected US light vehicle sales volume for June 2024 according to S&P Global Mobility?

S&P Global Mobility projects the US light vehicle sales volume for June 2024 to be 1.40 million units.

What is the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for US auto sales in June 2024 as forecasted by S&P Global Mobility?

The SAAR for US auto sales in June 2024 is projected to be 16.2 million units, the highest since May 2021.

How has the US light vehicle sales pace changed in the second quarter of 2024 according to SPGI?

The sales pace has advanced every month in Q2 2024, with an estimated SAAR of 16.0 million units, the highest quarterly mark since Q2 2021.

What challenges could affect US auto sales in June 2024 as noted by S&P Global Mobility?

Challenges include a cyberattack on dealer management software and a stop-sale announcement for certain Toyota and Lexus vehicles.

What is the growth rate of retail advertised inventory in the US by the end of May 2024 as per SPGI?

Retail advertised inventory grew by 0.4% from April and 61% over the previous year, reaching 2.79 million vehicles.

What is the projected BEV share in June 2024 according to S&P Global Mobility?

The projected BEV share in June 2024 is expected to be 7.5%.

How many new vehicle sales are expected for the calendar year 2024 according to SPGI?

S&P Global Mobility projects approximately 16.0 million new vehicle sales for the calendar year 2024.