S&P Global Mobility: February 2025 US auto sales to improve mildly
S&P Global Mobility forecasts a mild improvement in February 2025 US auto sales, projecting 1.23 million units with a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.1 million units, up from January's 15.6 million pace. Despite positive trends in pricing, inventory, and incentives, market growth faces challenges from uncertain economic conditions.
The outlook for 2025 predicts sustained but moderate growth, with annual light vehicle sales projected at 16.2 million units, representing approximately 1% growth from 2024. While vehicle prices are expected to decline and interest rates to decrease, inflation remains a concern. The battery-electric vehicle (BEV) segment is anticipated to maintain an 8.9% market share in February, matching January's performance, as stakeholders adapt to potential changes in BEV incentives.
S&P Global Mobility prevede un lieve miglioramento nelle vendite di auto negli Stati Uniti per febbraio 2025, con una stima di 1,23 milioni di unità e un tasso annuale stagionalmente aggiustato (SAAR) di 16,1 milioni di unità, in aumento rispetto ai 15,6 milioni di gennaio. Nonostante le tendenze positive nei prezzi, nell'inventario e negli incentivi, la crescita del mercato affronta sfide legate a condizioni economiche incerte.
Le previsioni per il 2025 indicano una crescita sostenuta ma moderata, con vendite annuali di veicoli leggeri stimate a 16,2 milioni di unità, che rappresentano circa l'1% di crescita rispetto al 2024. Sebbene si preveda una diminuzione dei prezzi dei veicoli e una riduzione dei tassi d'interesse, l'inflazione rimane una preoccupazione. Si prevede che il segmento dei veicoli elettrici a batteria (BEV) mantenga una quota di mercato dell'8,9% a febbraio, corrispondente alle performance di gennaio, mentre gli attori del mercato si adattano a potenziali cambiamenti negli incentivi per i BEV.
S&P Global Mobility pronostica una leve mejora en las ventas de automóviles en EE. UU. para febrero de 2025, proyectando 1,23 millones de unidades con una tasa anual ajustada estacionalmente (SAAR) de 16,1 millones de unidades, en aumento desde los 15,6 millones de enero. A pesar de las tendencias positivas en precios, inventario e incentivos, el crecimiento del mercado enfrenta desafíos debido a condiciones económicas inciertas.
Las perspectivas para 2025 prevén un crecimiento sostenido pero moderado, con ventas anuales de vehículos ligeros proyectadas en 16,2 millones de unidades, lo que representa aproximadamente un 1% de crecimiento respecto a 2024. Aunque se espera que los precios de los vehículos disminuyan y que las tasas de interés bajen, la inflación sigue siendo una preocupación. Se anticipa que el segmento de vehículos eléctricos de batería (BEV) mantenga una cuota de mercado del 8,9% en febrero, igualando el rendimiento de enero, mientras los interesados se adaptan a posibles cambios en los incentivos para los BEV.
S&P Global Mobility는 2025년 2월 미국 자동차 판매가 소폭 개선될 것으로 예상하며, 123만 대의 판매량과 계절 조정 연율(SAAR) 1610만 대로 예상하고 있습니다. 이는 1월의 1560만 대에서 증가한 수치입니다. 가격, 재고 및 인센티브의 긍정적인 추세에도 불구하고, 시장 성장은 불확실한 경제 상황으로 인해 도전에 직면해 있습니다.
2025년 전망은 지속적이지만 완만한 성장을 예측하며, 연간 경량 차량 판매량은 1620만 대로 예상되며, 이는 2024년 대비 약 1% 성장한 수치입니다. 차량 가격이 하락하고 금리가 감소할 것으로 예상되지만, 인플레이션은 여전히 우려 사항입니다. 배터리 전기차(BEV) 부문은 2월에 8.9%의 시장 점유율을 유지할 것으로 예상되며, 이는 1월의 성과와 일치합니다. 이해관계자들은 BEV 인센티브의 잠재적 변화에 적응하고 있습니다.
S&P Global Mobility prévoit une légère amélioration des ventes de voitures aux États-Unis en février 2025, avec une projection de 1,23 million d'unités et un taux annuel désaisonnalisé (SAAR) de 16,1 millions d'unités, en hausse par rapport aux 15,6 millions de janvier. Malgré des tendances positives en matière de prix, d'inventaire et d'incitations, la croissance du marché fait face à des défis dus à des conditions économiques incertaines.
Les perspectives pour 2025 prévoient une croissance soutenue mais modérée, avec des ventes annuelles de véhicules légers estimées à 16,2 millions d'unités, représentant environ 1 % de croissance par rapport à 2024. Bien que les prix des véhicules devraient diminuer et que les taux d'intérêt devraient baisser, l'inflation demeure une préoccupation. Le segment des véhicules électriques à batterie (BEV) devrait maintenir une part de marché de 8,9 % en février, égalant la performance de janvier, alors que les parties prenantes s'adaptent aux changements potentiels des incitations BEV.
S&P Global Mobility prognostiziert eine leichte Verbesserung der US-Autoverkäufe im Februar 2025, mit einer Schätzung von 1,23 Millionen Einheiten und einer saisonbereinigten Jahresrate (SAAR) von 16,1 Millionen Einheiten, ein Anstieg von den 15,6 Millionen im Januar. Trotz positiver Trends bei Preisen, Beständen und Anreizen sieht sich das Marktwachstum Herausforderungen durch unsichere wirtschaftliche Bedingungen gegenüber.
Der Ausblick für 2025 prognostiziert ein nachhaltiges, aber moderates Wachstum, mit jährlichen Verkaufszahlen für leichte Fahrzeuge von 16,2 Millionen Einheiten, was einem Wachstum von etwa 1% gegenüber 2024 entspricht. Während ein Rückgang der Fahrzeugpreise und ein Rückgang der Zinssätze erwartet werden, bleibt die Inflation ein Anliegen. Der Segment der batterieelektrischen Fahrzeuge (BEV) wird voraussichtlich im Februar einen Marktanteil von 8,9% halten, was der Leistung im Januar entspricht, während die Beteiligten sich an mögliche Veränderungen bei den BEV-Anreizen anpassen.
- Auto sales SAAR increasing to 16.1M units from 15.6M in January
- Vehicle pricing levels expected to decline
- Interest rates projected to decrease
- New vehicle inventory expected to improve
- Only 1% growth projected for 2025 auto sales
- Inflation levels expected to remain high
- Uncertain consumer sentiment affecting demand
- Month-to-month volatility expected in BEV sales
Insights
This automotive forecast release demonstrates S&P Global's market intelligence capabilities in a key vertical, showcasing the company's analytical services that generate recurring revenue streams. While seemingly routine, this report highlights SPGI's continued execution in its data and analytics segment, which represents a significant portion of the company's diversified business model.
The automotive intelligence division serves as an important component of SPGI's market research portfolio, complementing its financial services, ratings, and commodities intelligence offerings. This diversification strategy provides SPGI with revenue stability across economic cycles, as different segments can offset weakness in others during market fluctuations.
For investors, this release reinforces SPGI's position as a leading provider of essential market intelligence across multiple industries. The company's ability to deliver granular forecasts with specific metrics (16.1 million SAAR, 8.9% BEV penetration) demonstrates the depth of its data capabilities and analytical expertise that clients are willing to pay premium subscription fees to access.
The automotive sector insights also create cross-selling opportunities for SPGI's other divisions, as automotive manufacturers, suppliers, and financiers often require additional services like credit ratings, ESG assessments, and commodity price forecasting. This integrated approach helps SPGI maintain high client retention rates and strengthen its competitive moat against other information services providers.
While this specific release won't materially impact SPGI's quarterly results, it represents the ongoing execution of the company's strategy to be the essential intelligence provider across multiple industries, supporting its premium valuation multiple relative to broader market indices.
S&P Global Mobility projects that February 2025 will realize a rebound from the slow January result, but new US vehicle sales face an unsettled environment.
"We expect that auto sales in February should recover mildly from the January 2025 result, but sustained momentum seems tough to come by, given the swirling economic and policy conditions facing auto consumers and automakers alike," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. "While pricing, inventory and incentive trends are seemingly moving in the right direction, respectively, to promote new vehicle sales growth unsettled buying conditions will likely continue to push against any consistent upshift for demand levels."
The S&P Global Mobility US auto outlook for 2025 reflects sustained, but more moderate growth levels for light vehicle sales. Vehicle pricing levels are expected to decline but remain high; interest rates are expected to shift further downwards, but inflation levels are anticipated to remain sticky. New vehicle inventory should also progress, but careful management is expected as well. Combined with an uneasy consumer, we project this will translate to mild growth prospects for auto sales. S&P Global Mobility projects calendar-year 2025 light vehicle sales volume of 16.2 million units, growth of approximately
Feb 25 (Est) | Jan 25 | Feb 24 | ||
Total Light Vehicle | Units, NSA | 1,230,900 | 1,110,721 | 1,228,996 |
In millions, SAAR | 16.1 | 15.6 | 15.7 | |
Light Truck | In millions, SAAR | 13.2 | 12.8 | 12.7 |
Passenger Car | In millions, SAAR | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
Source: S&P Global Mobility (Est), | ||||
Continued development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales remains an assumption in the longer term S&P Global Mobility light vehicle sales forecast. In the immediate term, some month-to-month volatility is anticipated. February BEV share is expected to reach
About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers, and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.
Media Contact:
Michelle Culver
S&P Global Mobility
248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com
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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility
FAQ
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