S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER INDEX CONTINUES TO TREND UPWARD IN JANUARY 2024

Rhea-AI Summary

S&P Dow Jones Indices reports strong U.S. home price gains in January 2024, with San Diego leading the surge. The National Home Price Index rose by 6.0% year-over-year, marking the fastest annual rate since 2022. The 10-City Composite increased by 7.4%, and the 20-City Composite by 6.6%. Despite monthly struggles due to higher borrowing costs, home prices continue to break previous records. Low-tiered indices outperformed high-tiered ones for 17 months, showing consistent market performance.

Insights

Economist

The latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices provide a snapshot of the U.S. housing market, a key economic indicator. The reported 6% annual gain in the National Home Price Index is indicative of a robust housing sector, which has implications for consumer spending, inflation and monetary policy. The 7.4% and 6.6% increases in the 10-City and 20-City Composites, respectively, reflect a continued upward trajectory in urban housing markets, albeit with regional disparities.

From a macroeconomic perspective, the housing market's strength could signal overheating and contribute to inflationary pressures. This might compel the Federal Reserve to consider tightening monetary policy, which could lead to higher interest rates. Conversely, the month-over-month stagnation and slight decreases hint at potential cooling, which may alleviate some inflation concerns. For businesses, particularly in the construction and real estate sectors, these trends suggest sustained demand but also hint at possible affordability challenges ahead.

Real Estate Analyst

The differentiation in performance among cities, with San Diego leading at an 11.2% year-over-year increase, can be attributed to various factors including local economic growth, inventory levels and migration patterns. Southern California's resilience in the face of rising interest rates is noteworthy and may be driven by its strong job market and desirability as a residential location. However, the broader market's tight performance band suggests a level of homogeneity in housing market dynamics across the country.

For investors in real estate or related sectors, the data underscores the importance of geographical diversification. The disparity between high and low price tiers, with low-tier indices outperforming for 17 months, offers insight into where demand is most robust. This could inform investment strategies, as well as business planning for companies targeting homeowners.

Market Research Analyst

The seasonally adjusted data showing month-over-month increases across the board contrasts with the non-adjusted figures, highlighting the importance of considering seasonal factors in the housing market. This discrepancy is essential for businesses that rely on housing market trends to forecast demand for their products and services. For example, home improvement retailers and appliance manufacturers may experience different sales patterns based on these adjustments.

Additionally, the historical context provided by the indices, comparing current levels to the 2006 peaks and 2012 troughs, offers a long-term view of the market's recovery and growth. This can be particularly valuable for stock market investors seeking to understand the potential trajectory of housing-related stocks over an extended period.

NEW YORK, March 26, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the January 2024 results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. The leading measure of U.S. home prices shows that three out of the 20 major metro markets reported month-over-month price increases. More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.0% annual gain in January, up from a 5.6% rise in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 7.4%, up from a 7.0% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 6.6%, up from a 6.2% increase in the previous month. San Diego again reported the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities with an 11.2% increase in January, followed by Los Angeles, with an increase of 8.6%. Portland, though holding the lowest rank after reporting the smallest year-over-year growth, retained an upward trend with a 0.9% increase this month.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

The U.S. National Index and the 20-City Composite showed a continued decrease of 0.1%, and 10-City Composite remained unchanged in January.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index, the 20-City Composite, and the 10-City Composite all posted month-over-month increases of 0.4%, 0.1%, and 0.2% respectively.

ANALYSIS

"U.S. home prices continued their drive higher," says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "Our National Composite rose by 6% in January, the fastest annual rate since 2022.  Stronger gains came from our 10- and 20-City Composite indices, rising 7.4% and 6.6%, respectively.  For the second consecutive month, all cities reported increases in annual prices, with San Diego surging 11.2%.  On a seasonal adjusted basis, home prices have continued to break through previous all-time highs set last year."

"We've commented on how consistent each market performed during 2023 and that continues to be the case. While there is a large disparity between leaders such as San Diego versus laggards such as with Portland, the broad market performance is tightly bunched up.  This is also true of high and low tiers.  The average annual gains between high and low tiers across cities tracked by the indices is just 1.1%.  Low price tiered indices have outperformed high priced indices for 17 months.  Homeowners most likely saw healthy gains in the last year, no matter what city you were in, or if it was in an expensive or inexpensive neighborhood.  No matter which way you slice it, the index performance closely resembled the broad market."

"On a monthly basis, home prices continue to struggle in the face of elevated borrowing costs.  Seventeen markets dropped over the last month, while Minneapolis has posted a 2.4% decline over the prior three months.  Only Southern California and Washington D.C. have stood up the rising wave of interest rates and deliver positive returns to start the year.  San Diego rose 1.8% in January, followed by DC with 0.5% and Los Angeles at 0.1%."

SUPPORTING DATA

Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.

	2006 Peak		2012 Trough			Current
Index	Level	Date	Level	Date	From Peak (%)		Level	From Trough (%)	From Peak (%)
National	184.61	Jul-06	134.00	Feb-12	-27.4 %		310.46	131.7 %	68.2 %
20-City	206.52	Jul-06	134.07	Mar-12	-35.1 %		317.07	136.5 %	53.5 %
10-City	226.29	Jun-06	146.45	Mar-12	-35.3 %		332.78	127.2 %	47.1 %

Table 2 below summarizes the results for January 2024. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices could be revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

	January 2024		January 24/December 23		December/November		1-Year
Metropolitan Area	Level		Change (%)		Change (%)		Change (%)
Atlanta	240.61		-0.1 %		-0.1 %		6.4 %
Boston	318.55		-0.5 %		-0.7 %		7.0 %
Charlotte	270.49		-0.1 %		-0.1 %		8.1 %
Chicago	196.22		-0.5 %		-0.2 %		8.0 %
Cleveland	181.03		-0.9 %		-0.8 %		6.9 %
Dallas	289.85		-0.2 %		-0.7 %		2.9 %
Denver	308.82		-0.5 %		-0.5 %		2.7 %
Detroit	179.05		-0.7 %		-0.7 %		8.2 %
Las Vegas	284.74		-0.1 %		0.2 %		5.6 %
Los Angeles	421.79		0.1 %		0.1 %		8.6 %
Miami	429.02		-0.1 %		0.3 %		7.5 %
Minneapolis	230.48		-0.6 %		-1.0 %		3.1 %
New York	293.24		-0.3 %		-0.1 %		7.6 %
Phoenix	321.34		-0.5 %		-0.6 %		4.6 %
Portland	315.24		-0.2 %		-1.0 %		0.9 %
San Diego	421.34		1.8 %		-0.8 %		11.2 %
San Francisco	340.88		-0.1 %		-0.9 %		4.5 %
Seattle	362.04		0.0 %		-0.5 %		4.4 %
Tampa	381.28		-0.2 %		-0.3 %		4.6 %
Washington	313.82		0.5 %		0.0 %		6.3 %
Composite-10	332.78		0.0 %		-0.2 %		7.4 %
Composite-20	317.07		-0.1 %		-0.3 %		6.6 %
U.S. National	310.46		-0.1 %		-0.4 %		6.0 %
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
Data through January 2024

Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.

	January 24/December 23 Change (%)				December/November  Change (%)
Metropolitan Area	NSA		SA		NSA		SA
Atlanta	-0.1 %		0.3 %		-0.1 %		0.5 %
Boston	-0.5 %		0.0 %		-0.7 %		0.1 %
Charlotte	-0.1 %		0.5 %		-0.1 %		0.6 %
Chicago	-0.5 %		0.2 %		-0.2 %		0.6 %
Cleveland	-0.9 %		-0.1 %		-0.8 %		0.0 %
Dallas	-0.2 %		0.3 %		-0.7 %		0.0 %
Denver	-0.5 %		-0.5 %		-0.5 %		0.0 %
Detroit	-0.7 %		-0.1 %		-0.7 %		0.1 %
Las Vegas	-0.1 %		0.4 %		0.2 %		0.8 %
Los Angeles	0.1 %		0.2 %		0.1 %		0.7 %
Miami	-0.1 %		0.0 %		0.3 %		0.7 %
Minneapolis	-0.6 %		0.1 %		-1.0 %		0.0 %
New York	-0.3 %		0.0 %		-0.1 %		0.0 %
Phoenix	-0.5 %		-0.4 %		-0.6 %		0.4 %
Portland	-0.2 %		-0.1 %		-1.0 %		-0.2 %
San Diego	1.8 %		1.4 %		-0.8 %		-0.1 %
San Francisco	-0.1 %		0.3 %		-0.9 %		-0.2 %
Seattle	0.0 %		-0.1 %		-0.5 %		0.3 %
Tampa	-0.2 %		0.4 %		-0.3 %		0.3 %
Washington	0.5 %		0.9 %		0.0 %		0.2 %
Composite-10	0.0 %		0.2 %		-0.2 %		0.3 %
Composite-20	-0.1 %		0.1 %		-0.3 %		0.3 %
U.S. National	-0.1 %		0.4 %		-0.4 %		0.2 %
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
Data through January  2024

For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit www.spglobal.com/spdji.

ABOUT S&P DOW JONES INDICES

S&P Dow Jones Indices is the largest global resource for essential index-based concepts, data and research, and home to iconic financial market indicators, such as the S&P 500^® and the Dow Jones Industrial Average^®. More assets are invested in products based on our indices than products based on indices from any other provider in the world. Since Charles Dow invented the first index in 1884, S&P DJI has been innovating and developing indices across the spectrum of asset classes helping to define the way investors measure and trade the markets.

S&P Dow Jones Indices is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI), which provides essential intelligence for individuals, companies, and governments to make decisions with confidence. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/spdji.

FOR MORE INFORMATION:

April Kabahar
Global Head of Communications
New York, USA
(+1) 212 438 7530
april.kabahar@spglobal.com

S&P Dow Jones Indices' interactive blog, IndexologyBlog.com, delivers real-time commentary and analysis from industry experts across S&P Global on a wide range of topics impacting residential home prices, homebuilding and mortgage financing in the United States. Readers and viewers can visit the blog at www.indexologyblog.com, where feedback and commentary are welcomed and encouraged.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are published on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am ET. They are constructed to accurately track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated quarterly. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 10 original metro area indices. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000; thus, for example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the subject market.

These indices are generated and published under agreements between S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic, Inc.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are produced by CoreLogic, Inc. In addition to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, CoreLogic also offers home price index sets covering thousands of zip codes, counties, metro areas, and state markets. The indices, published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, represent just a small subset of the broader data available through CoreLogic.

Case-Shiller^® and CoreLogic^® are trademarks of CoreLogic Case-Shiller, LLC or its affiliates or subsidiaries ("CoreLogic") and have been licensed for use by S&P Dow Jones Indices. None of the financial products based on indices produced by CoreLogic or its predecessors in interest are sponsored, sold, or promoted by CoreLogic, and neither CoreLogic nor any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, or predecessors in interest makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products.

View original content:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-index-continues-to-trend-upward-in-january-2024-302099741.html

SOURCE S&P Dow Jones Indices

FAQ

What was the year-over-year increase in the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index in January 2024?

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index reported a 6.0% annual gain in January 2024.

Which city had the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities in January 2024?

San Diego reported the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities with an 11.2% increase in January 2024.

What were the month-over-month changes in the U.S. National Index and the 20-City Composite in January 2024?

The U.S. National Index and the 20-City Composite showed a continued decrease of 0.1% in January 2024.

Who commented on the U.S. home price trends in January 2024?

Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices, commented on the U.S. home price trends in January 2024.

How did home prices perform on a monthly basis in January 2024?

Home prices struggled on a monthly basis in January 2024 due to elevated borrowing costs, with 17 markets experiencing drops.