S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER INDEX BREAKS PREVIOUS MONTH'S ALL-TIME HIGH IN APRIL 2024

Rhea-AI Summary

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) reported that the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index saw a 6.3% annual gain in April 2024, down from 6.5% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite had an 8.0% annual increase, a slight drop from 8.3%. Similarly, the 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 7.2%, slightly down from 7.5%. Month-over-month, the U.S. National Index increased by 1.2%, the 20-City Composite by 1.36%, and the 10-City Composite by 1.38% before seasonal adjustments. Post-adjustment, the indices showed modest gains. San Diego led with a 10.3% annual increase, followed by New York and Chicago at 9.4% and 8.7%, respectively. The Northeast market has outperformed others for nine consecutive months. Despite hitting new peaks, the growth rate has decelerated compared to earlier months.

Positive

• The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index saw a 6.3% annual gain in April 2024.
• San Diego reported the highest annual gain of 10.3%, followed by New York and Chicago at 9.4% and 8.7%, respectively.
• Thirteen markets are currently at all-time highs.
• Northeast region outperformed other regions for nine consecutive months.

Negative

• Annual gain in the U.S. National Index decreased from 6.5% to 6.3%.
• 10-City Composite annual increase dropped from 8.3% to 8.0%.
• 20-City Composite year-over-year increase fell from 7.5% to 7.2%.
• Only just over half of the markets are seeing prices accelerate on a monthly basis compared to all 20 markets last month.

Financial Analyst

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices showed a deceleration in the upward trend of home prices for April 2024, albeit still achieving new all-time highs. This performance is noteworthy for investors considering the long-term appreciation potential in real estate.

Short-term implications: The deceleration hints at a potential stabilization in housing prices, which may provide opportunities for buyers who had been priced out of the market previously. On the other hand, sellers may experience pressure to adjust their price expectations downward.

Long-term view: The sustained annual gains indicate that the real estate market remains resilient, supported by ongoing demand and limited supply in key metropolitan areas. This could make real estate investments attractive for those looking into long-term asset appreciation.

Regional variances: San Diego's 10.3% annual increase highlights the exceptional performance of specific markets, suggesting that regional factors significantly impact home price dynamics. Meanwhile, areas like Portland with only a 1.7% increase may present different investment risk profiles.

Retail investors should consider both the broader national trends and specific regional market dynamics when making investment decisions. The data underscores the importance of geographic diversification within real estate portfolios.

Market Research Analyst

The Case-Shiller Index provides critical insights into housing market dynamics by tracking single-family home prices across various regions. The continued increase in home prices, albeit at a slower rate, reflects a complex interplay of high demand and constrained supply.

Seasonal Adjustments: The minor month-over-month increases after seasonal adjustments suggest that while prices are still rising, the market may be nearing a cyclical peak typical for the summer months. This could mean a potential cooling period approaching, which is important for timing market entry or exit.

Market segmentation: Observing different gains in cities like San Diego and Portland indicates that local economic conditions, employment rates and migration patterns have a strong influence on real estate prices. For example, San Diego's consistent performance could be attributed to ongoing tech sector growth and lifestyle factors.

Investor sentiment: The data indicating deceleration in price growth might make investors more cautious, potentially leading to a more measured investment approach. Moreover, the historical data showing the peaks and troughs of the housing indices emphasize the cyclical nature of real estate markets.

Retail investors should stay informed about local market conditions and broader economic indicators to make well-rounded decisions. The Case-Shiller Index serves as a valuable barometer for understanding these dynamics.

NEW YORK, June 25, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the April 2024 results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. The leading measure of U.S. home prices shows that the upward trend decelerated in April 2024. More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller/.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.3% annual gain for April, down from a 6.5% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 8.0%, down from an 8.3% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 7.2%, dropping from a 7.5% increase in the previous month. San Diego continued to report the highest annual gain among the 20 cities in April with a 10.3% increase this month, followed by New York and Chicago, with increases of 9.4% and 8.7%, respectively. Portland once again held the lowest rank this month for the smallest year-over-year growth, with a 1.7% annual increase in April.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

The U.S. National Index, the 20-City Composite, and the 10-City Composite upward trends decelerated from last month, with pre-seasonality adjustment increases of 1.2%, 1.36% and 1.38%, respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index and 10-City Composite posted the same month-over-month increase of 0.3% and 0.5% respectively as last month, while the 20-City reported a monthly increase of 0.4%.

ANALYSIS

"For the second consecutive month, we've seen our National Index jump at least 1% over its previous all-time high," says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "2024 is closely tracking the strong start observed last year, where March and April posted the largest rise seen prior to a slowdown in the summer and fall. Heading into summer, the market is at an all-time high, once again testing its resilience against the historically more active time of the year.

"Thirteen markets are currently at all-time highs and San Diego reigns supreme once again, topping annual returns for the last six months. The Northeast is the best performing market for the previous nine months, with New York rising 9.4% annually. Sustained outperformance of the Northeast market was last observed in 2011. For the decade that followed, the West and the South held the top posts for performance. It's now been over a year since we've seen the top region come from the South or the West.

"Last month's all-time high came with all 20 markets accelerating price gains. This month, just over half of our markets are seeing prices accelerate on a monthly basis. At 6.3% annual gains, the index has decelerated from the start of the year, with only two markets rising on an annual basis."

SUPPORTING DATA

Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.

	2006 Peak		2012 Trough			Current
Index	Level	Date	Level	Date	From Peak (%)		Level	From Trough (%)	From Peak (%)
National	184.61	Jul-06	134.00	Feb-12	-27.4 %		320.42	139.1 %	73.6 %
20-City	206.52	Jul-06	134.07	Mar-12	-35.1 %		329.78	146.0 %	59.7 %
10-City	226.29	Jun-06	146.45	Mar-12	-35.3 %		346.89	136.9 %	53.3 %

Table 2 below summarizes the results for April 2024. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices could be revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

	April 2024		April/March		March/February		1-Year
Metropolitan Area	Level		Change (%)		Change (%)		Change (%)
Atlanta	246.17		1.3 %		0.9 %		5.9 %
Boston	335.33		2.2 %		1.9 %		7.9 %
Charlotte	277.04		1.2 %		1.1 %		7.3 %
Chicago	204.95		1.7 %		1.6 %		8.7 %
Cleveland	188.84		1.8 %		2.4 %		8.5 %
Dallas	298.56		1.2 %		1.2 %		3.4 %
Denver	319.92		1.3 %		1.3 %		2.0 %
Detroit	185.20		1.8 %		1.2 %		7.2 %
Las Vegas	292.67		1.2 %		0.9 %		8.3 %
Los Angeles	440.11		1.3 %		1.9 %		8.6 %
Miami	436.86		0.8 %		0.9 %		8.2 %
Minneapolis	238.54		1.4 %		1.4 %		2.9 %
New York	304.81		1.3 %		1.2 %		9.4 %
Phoenix	326.47		0.6 %		0.5 %		4.8 %
Portland	327.18		1.1 %		1.5 %		1.7 %
San Diego	443.36		1.2 %		2.2 %		10.3 %
San Francisco	362.84		2.0 %		2.6 %		4.7 %
Seattle	387.90		2.0 %		2.7 %		7.5 %
Tampa	384.46		0.7 %		0.5 %		3.6 %
Washington	325.09		0.9 %		1.4 %		6.4 %
Composite-10	346.89		1.4 %		1.6 %		8.0 %
Composite-20	329.78		1.4 %		1.6 %		7.2 %
U.S. National	320.42		1.2 %		1.3 %		6.3 %
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
Data through April 2024

Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.

	April/March Change (%)				March/February Change (%)
Metropolitan Area	NSA		SA		NSA		SA
Atlanta	1.3 %		0.6 %		0.9 %		0.1 %
Boston	2.2 %		0.6 %		1.9 %		0.5 %
Charlotte	1.2 %		0.3 %		1.1 %		0.2 %
Chicago	1.7 %		0.7 %		1.6 %		0.8 %
Cleveland	1.8 %		1.2 %		2.4 %		1.4 %
Dallas	1.2 %		0.0 %		1.2 %		-0.1 %
Denver	1.3 %		0.0 %		1.3 %		-0.7 %
Detroit	1.8 %		0.4 %		1.2 %		0.3 %
Las Vegas	1.2 %		0.5 %		0.9 %		0.0 %
Los Angeles	1.3 %		0.5 %		1.9 %		0.5 %
Miami	0.8 %		0.2 %		0.9 %		0.4 %
Minneapolis	1.4 %		0.1 %		1.4 %		0.2 %
New York	1.3 %		0.8 %		1.2 %		0.9 %
Phoenix	0.6 %		-0.3 %		0.5 %		-0.3 %
Portland	1.1 %		0.1 %		1.5 %		0.2 %
San Diego	1.2 %		0.1 %		2.2 %		0.4 %
San Francisco	2.0 %		0.3 %		2.6 %		0.1 %
Seattle	2.0 %		0.1 %		2.7 %		0.0 %
Tampa	0.7 %		0.0 %		0.5 %		-0.3 %
Washington	0.9 %		-0.1 %		1.4 %		0.1 %
Composite-10	1.4 %		0.5 %		1.6 %		0.5 %
Composite-20	1.4 %		0.4 %		1.6 %		0.3 %
U.S. National	1.2 %		0.3 %		1.3 %		0.3 %
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic Data through April 2024

For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit www.spglobal.com/spdji.

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S&P Dow Jones Indices' interactive blog, IndexologyBlog.com, delivers real-time commentary and analysis from industry experts across S&P Global on a wide range of topics impacting residential home prices, homebuilding and mortgage financing in the United States. Readers and viewers can visit the blog at www.indexologyblog.com, where feedback and commentary are welcomed and encouraged.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are published on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am ET. They are constructed to accurately track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated quarterly. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 10 original metro area indices. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000; thus, for example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the subject market.

These indices are generated and published under agreements between S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic, Inc.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are produced by CoreLogic, Inc. In addition to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, CoreLogic also offers home price index sets covering thousands of zip codes, counties, metro areas, and state markets. The indices, published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, represent just a small subset of the broader data available through CoreLogic.

Case-Shiller^® and CoreLogic^® are trademarks of CoreLogic Case-Shiller, LLC or its affiliates or subsidiaries ("CoreLogic") and have been licensed for use by S&P Dow Jones Indices. None of the financial products based on indices produced by CoreLogic or its predecessors in interest are sponsored, sold, or promoted by CoreLogic, and neither CoreLogic nor any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, or predecessors in interest makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products.

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SOURCE S&P Dow Jones Indices

FAQ

What was the annual gain of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index in April 2024?

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index reported a 6.3% annual gain in April 2024.

Which city reported the highest annual gain in the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices for April 2024?

San Diego reported the highest annual gain with a 10.3% increase in April 2024.

How did the 10-City Composite perform year-over-year in April 2024?

The 10-City Composite saw an 8.0% year-over-year increase in April 2024, down from 8.3% in the previous month.

Which region has been the top-performing market for the last nine months according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices?

The Northeast region has been the top-performing market for the last nine months.

What was the month-over-month increase for the U.S. National Index before seasonal adjustments in April 2024?

The U.S. National Index rose by 1.2% month-over-month before seasonal adjustments in April 2024.

Did the growth rate of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices accelerate in April 2024?

No, the growth rate decelerated in April 2024 compared to the previous month.