Redfin Reports Rising Mortgage Rates Haven’t Yet Slowed Pending Sales

Rhea-AI Summary

Redfin reports that pending U.S. home sales rose 3.2% year over year during the four weeks ending October 13, marking the biggest increase in three years. This rise is attributed to mortgage rates falling to a two-year low in late September. However, recent weeks have seen mortgage rates tick up, with the weekly average 30-year rate at 6.32%.

Home prices are also increasing, with the median sale price up 4.7% year-over-year, the largest uptick since March. This has pushed the typical homebuyer's monthly payment up nearly $100 from a month ago. Despite rising rates, demand remains strong in many areas, with pending sales up in 34 of the 50 most populous U.S. metros. However, some indicators suggest a potential slowdown, with home tours and mortgage-purchase applications flattening out.

Positive

• Pending U.S. home sales rose 3.2% year over year, the biggest increase in three years
• Pending sales are up in 34 of the 50 most populous U.S. metros
• Median sale price posted a 4.7% year-over-year increase, the biggest uptick since March
• Redfin's Homebuyer Demand Index is up 7% year over year

Negative

• Mortgage rates have increased to 6.32%, up from 6.08% in late September
• The typical homebuyer's monthly payment has increased by nearly $100 from a month ago
• Mortgage-purchase applications are down 7% week over week
• New listings growth has slowed to 3.6% nationwide, the smallest year-over-year increase in a month

Insights

Real Estate Market Analyst

The housing market is showing resilience despite rising mortgage rates, with pending sales up 3.2% year-over-year - the largest increase in three years. This uptick is particularly notable in 34 of the 50 most populous U.S. metros, with California and Portland, OR leading the charge.

However, there are signs of potential cooling:

• The Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index has fallen slightly from its recent six-month high
• Mortgage purchase applications are down 7% week-over-week
• New listings growth has slowed to 3.6% year-over-year

The median sale price increased by 4.7% year-over-year, pushing the typical homebuyer's monthly payment up by nearly $100 from a month ago. This price growth, combined with higher mortgage rates (now at 6.32%), may start to impact affordability and demand in the coming months.

For Redfin (RDFN), this mixed market presents both opportunities and challenges. While increased sales activity is positive, the company may face headwinds if rising rates and prices begin to significantly dampen buyer demand.

Financial Analyst

Redfin's report presents a nuanced picture for investors. The company's ability to facilitate transactions in a rising rate environment is encouraging, but several factors warrant caution:

• Pending sales growth of 3.2% is positive, but it's compared to a weak 2023 base when rates were at two-decade highs
• The 4.7% increase in median sale price could boost transaction values and commissions
• However, rising rates and prices may eventually constrain affordability and transaction volume

Redfin's market share and revenue could benefit from the current sales uptick, but investors should monitor for signs of market cooling. The company's tech-driven model may provide some resilience, but it's not immune to broader market trends.

With a market cap of $1.36 billion, RDFN's stock performance will likely be sensitive to housing market dynamics. Investors should closely watch mortgage rate trends and Redfin's ability to maintain or grow market share in this evolving environment.

Pending home sales posted their biggest increase since 2021 this week, but some house hunters are starting to pull back

SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- (NASDAQ: RDFN) — Pending U.S. home sales rose 3.2% year over year during the four weeks ending October 13, the biggest increase in three years, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.

Home sales are rising. On a local level, pending sales are up in 34 of the 50 most populous U.S. metros, with the biggest increases in California and in Portland, OR. Sales have improved over the last month because mortgage rates fell to a two-year low at the end of September amid the Fed’s highly anticipated interest-rate cut. Please note that Redfin is comparing to a period in 2023 when sales slumped as mortgage rates approached a two-decade high.

Mortgage rates are rising. Mortgage rates have ticked up over the last few weeks, largely due to a stronger-than-expected jobs report on October 4: The weekly average 30-year rate is 6.32%, compared to 6.08% during the last week of September. Home prices are also rising, with the median sale price posting a 4.7% year-over-year increase, the biggest uptick since March. That has pushed the typical homebuyer’s monthly payment up nearly $100 from a month ago.

Home tours and mortgage-purchase applications have flattened out. Rising rates have slowed demand somewhat at earlier stages of the homebuying process. Some would-be buyers seem to be waiting for rates to come back down: Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index—a measure of tours and other buying services from Redfin agents—has fallen marginally from the six-month high it hit two weeks ago, though it is up 7% year over year. And mortgage-purchase applications are down 7% week over week, but they are still trending up from a year ago.

Sellers are taking a small step back as rates rise: New listings are up 3.6% nationwide, the smallest year-over-year increase in a month.

“So far, higher rates haven’t slowed buyers down in the Minneapolis area. But buyers are negotiating more heavily than they have in years, trying to shave money off the home price because they’re taking on a pretty high rate,” said Emily Olson, a Redfin Premier agent in Minneapolis. “It’s a good strategy, because sellers are receptive to it. Sellers know every buyer taking on a mortgage is contending with high rates, and they would rather get their house sold now than let it linger on the market going into the holiday season.”

For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.

Leading Indicators

Indicators of homebuying demand and activity
	Value (if applicable)	Recent change	Year-over-year change	Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.63% (Oct. 16)	Near highest level in 3 months	Down from 7.69%	Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.32% (week ending Oct. 10)	Up from 2-year low of 6.08% 2 weeks earlier	Down from 7.57%	Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)		Down 7% from a week earlier (as of week ending Oct. 11)	Up 7%	Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)		Up 6% from a month earlier (as of week ending Oct. 13)	Up 7%   Biggest increase in over a year	Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index a measure of tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents
Touring activity		Down 2% from the start of the year (as of Oct. 13)	At this time last year, it was down 12% from the start of 2023	ShowingTime, a home touring technology company
Google searches for “home for sale”		Up 4% from a month earlier (as of Oct. 13)	Down 4%	Google Trends

Key housing-market data

U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending Oct. 13, 2024 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.
	Four weeks ending Oct. 13, 2024	Year-over-year change	Notes
Median sale price	$384,412	4.7%	Biggest increase since March
Median asking price	$399,675	6%	Biggest increase in 2 years
Median monthly mortgage payment	$2,566 at a 6.32% mortgage rate	-4.5%	Up from $2,489 a month earlier
Pending sales	76,447	3.2%	Biggest increase in nearly 3 years
New listings	85,943	3.6%
Active listings	1,024,565	16%	Smallest increase since March
Months of supply	4	+0.6 pts.	4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions.
Share of homes off market in two weeks	33.8%	Down from 39%
Median days on market	39	+6 days
Share of homes sold above list price	26%	Down from 30%
Average sale-to-list price ratio	98.8%	-0.3 pts.

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending Oct. 13, 2024 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.
	Metros with biggest year-over-year increases	Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases	Notes
Median sale price	Fort Lauderdale, FL (11.2%) Milwaukee (10.7%) Providence, RI (10.1%) Chicago (10.1%) Nassau County, NY (10.1%)	Austin, TX (-4.6%) San Antonio (-1.7%) Nashville, TN (-0.6%) Tampa, FL (-0.5%) Fort Worth, TX (-0.1%)	Declined in 5 metros
Pending sales	Portland, OR (17.8%) Los Angeles (16%) Anaheim, CA (15.7%) San Jose, CA (15.5%) Seattle (14.4%)	Tampa, FL (-27.5%) West Palm Beach, FL (-18.4%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (-14.5%) Miami (-13.8%) Orlando, FL (-12%)	Increased in 34 metros   The last time pending sales increased in this many metro areas was in May 2021
New listings	San Jose, CA (22.2%) Phoenix (19.5%) Sacramento, CA (18.1%) Seattle (17.9%) Baltimore, MD (16%)	Tampa, FL (-36.1%) Atlanta (-17.3%) West Palm Beach, FL (-13.2%) Orlando, FL (-12%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (-6.9%)	Declined in 11 metros

To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-rising-mortgage-rates-pending-sales-holding-up

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.

Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and WalkScore®.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241017833256/en/

Contact Redfin

Redfin Journalist Services:

Tana Kelley

press@redfin.com

Source: Redfin

FAQ

What is the current trend in pending home sales for Redfin (RDFN)?

According to Redfin's report, pending U.S. home sales rose 3.2% year over year during the four weeks ending October 13, which is the biggest increase in three years.

How have mortgage rates changed recently for Redfin (RDFN) customers?

Redfin reports that mortgage rates have increased recently, with the weekly average 30-year rate at 6.32%, up from 6.08% during the last week of September.

What is the current median sale price trend reported by Redfin (RDFN)?

Redfin's report shows that the median sale price has increased by 4.7% year-over-year, which is the biggest uptick since March.

How has Redfin's (RDFN) Homebuyer Demand Index changed year-over-year?

Redfin's Homebuyer Demand Index, which measures tours and other buying services from Redfin agents, is up 7% year over year.