The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® Decreased in November
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 96.1 in November from an upwardly revised 101.4 in October. The Present Situation Index slightly fell from 106.2 to 105.9, while the Expectations Index declined significantly from 98.2 to 89.5. Consumers are less optimistic about future business conditions, with those expecting improvement dropping from 36.0% to 27.4%. Confidence in the job market also weakened, with expectations for job growth declining. The survey was conducted by Nielsen, with results available from November 13.
- Consumers' appraisal of current business conditions showed minor stability.
- The percentage of consumers reporting 'bad' business conditions decreased.
- Consumer Confidence Index decreased, indicating overall pessimism.
- Expectations for future business conditions declined sharply, with more consumers expecting worsening conditions.
- Less optimism regarding job growth and income prospects.
NEW YORK, Nov. 24, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined in November, after remaining relatively flat in October. The Index now stands at 96.1 (1985=100), down from 101.4 (an upward revision) in October. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions – decreased slightly from 106.2 to 105.9. The Expectations Index – based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions – declined from 98.2 in October to 89.5 this month.
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was November 13.
"Consumer confidence declined in November, after remaining virtually flat in October," said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. "Consumers' assessment of present-day conditions held steady, though consumers noted a moderation in business conditions, suggesting growth has slowed in Q4. Heading into 2021, consumers do not foresee the economy, nor the labor market, gaining strength. In addition, the resurgence of COVID-19 is further increasing uncertainty and exacerbating concerns about the outlook."
Consumers' appraisal of current conditions was relatively unchanged in November. The percentage of consumers claiming business conditions are "good" declined from 18.6 percent to 17.6 percent, but those claiming business conditions are "bad" also decreased, from 34.4 percent to 33.5 percent. Consumers' assessment of the labor market was unchanged. The percentage of consumers saying jobs are "plentiful" held steady at 26.7 percent, while those claiming jobs are "hard to get" was virtually unchanged at 19.5 percent.
Consumers, however, have grown less optimistic about the short-term outlook. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions will improve over the next six months decreased from 36.0 percent to 27.4 percent, while those expecting business conditions will worsen increased from 15.9 percent to 19.8 percent. Consumers' optimism regarding the job market also weakened. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead declined from 32.0 percent to 25.9 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs increased moderately from 19.8 percent to 20.5 percent. Regarding their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an increase was virtually unchanged at 17.6 percent, while the proportion expecting a decrease declined from 14.2 percent to 13.3 percent.
Source: November 2020 Consumer Confidence Survey®
The Conference Board / Release #7072
The Conference Board publishes the Consumer Confidence Index® at 10 a.m. ET on the last Tuesday of every month. Subscription information and the technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerdata.cfm.
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what's ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.
About NIELSEN
Nielsen Holdings plc (NYSE: NLSN) is a global performance management company that provides a comprehensive understanding of what consumers watch and buy. Nielsen's Watch segment provides media and advertising clients with Total Audience measurement services for all devices on which content — video, audio and text — is consumed. The Buy segment offers consumer packaged goods manufacturers and retailers the industry's only global view of retail performance measurement. By integrating information from its Watch and Buy segments and other data sources, Nielsen also provides its clients with analytics that help improve performance. Nielsen, an S&P 500 company, has operations in over 100 countries, covering more than 90 percent of the world's population. For more information, visit www.nielsen.com.
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SOURCE The Conference Board
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