Global Blue Releases the Monthly Tax Free Shopping Business Update for March 2024
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Insights
The recent data from Global Blue indicating a robust recovery in Tax Free Shopping, particularly in Continental Europe and the Asia Pacific region, suggests a positive trend for the retail and luxury goods sectors. The recovery rates exceeding 2019 levels imply a resurgence in consumer confidence and spending power, especially among tourists. This could signal an uptick in discretionary spending, which often translates into increased sales for companies operating in these regions.
For investors, the impressive recovery rates in France, Spain and Italy may point to attractive opportunities within the European market. Additionally, the substantial growth in Tax Free Shopping among US and Asian shoppers, notably from Hong Kong and Taiwan, underscores the importance of these consumer segments for retailers and luxury brands. The Asia Pacific region's record recovery rate, spearheaded by Japan and South Korea, indicates a strong rebound in consumer activity, which could have a cascading effect on related industries such as hospitality and transportation.
However, it's essential to monitor the performance of German markets, which showed a comparatively lower recovery rate and the impact of cultural events like Ramadan on GCC shopper recovery. These factors could introduce volatility in certain markets and affect retail performance. Understanding these dynamics is important for businesses to tailor their strategies and for investors to make informed decisions regarding sector-specific stocks.
The data suggesting a dynamic recovery in Tax Free Shopping has broader economic implications. A 145% recovery rate compared to 2019 indicates not only a rebound from the pandemic but also an expansion beyond pre-pandemic levels. This expansion is likely driven by accumulated savings during lockdown periods, pent-up demand and a shift in consumer preferences towards physical retail experiences post-pandemic.
From an economic standpoint, this recovery could contribute to employment growth in the retail sector and support the overall economic recovery in regions where Tax Free Shopping is a significant economic activity. The strong performance in international shopping could also impact currency exchange rates, as increased spending by tourists often requires them to exchange their home currency for the local currency, potentially strengthening the latter.
However, the uneven recovery across different regions and the varying impact of cultural events such as Ramadan highlight the need for a nuanced understanding of consumer behavior. Economies heavily reliant on tourist spending from specific regions may face uncertainties and businesses should remain agile to adapt to these changing patterns.
The reported surge in Tax Free Shopping, particularly the year-on-year growth rates, may have significant implications for the stock market, especially for companies within the retail, luxury goods and consumer discretionary sectors. A 33% worldwide year-on-year performance increase is a strong indicator of sector health and could lead to upward revisions in earnings forecasts for companies benefiting from this trend.
Investors might find the detailed breakdown of recovery rates by nationality particularly insightful, as it highlights which consumer markets are driving growth. The standout growth of Mainland Chinese shoppers, with a 43% increase, signals China's vital role in the global consumer market. Companies with a strong foothold in the Chinese market or those that have successfully tapped into the tourist spending of Chinese consumers could see their valuations rise.
While the overall trend is positive, it's important to consider the potential risks associated with geopolitical tensions, currency fluctuations and the sustainability of this spending trend. Investors should also be aware of the potential for overvaluation in stocks that have already priced in this recovery and seek opportunities in undervalued stocks that may benefit from the continued growth in Tax Free Shopping.
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Fresh data from Global Blue reveals that the global dynamic recovery for Tax Free Shopping remains strong across Continental Europe and continues to accelerate across
Asia Pacific .
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Globally, issued Sales in Store like-for-like recovery reached
145% 1 in March 2024 compared to the same period in 2019, vs.138% 1 in January/February 2024.
SIGNY,
In Continental
Regarding origin markets, US shopper recovery accelerated, reaching
In
In terms of origin markets, travelers from
In terms of Mainland Chinese shoppers, the worldwide issued Sales in Store like-for-like recovery reached
A strong year-on-year performance for international shopping
When analyzing the year-on-year variation in Tax Free Shopping growth, the worldwide Issue Sales like-for-like year-on-year performance reached +
The issued Sales in Store in Continental
Regarding origin markets, the growth was positively influenced by most nationalities, with Mainland Chinese shoppers leading the way with a +
In
APPENDIX
Worldwide recovery rate (versus 2019) rate
Issued SIS L/L recovery1 (in % of 2019) |
% Tax Free Spend (2019) |
March 2024 |
February 2024 |
January 2024 |
Q4 2023 |
Q3 2023 |
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Other countries |
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Total Continental Europe |
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Total |
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Total worldwide |
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Worldwide Year-on-Year Growth Rate (2024 vs. 2023)
Issued SIS L/L Year-on-Year Growth3 |
March 2024 |
February 2024 |
January 2024 |
CY (2023) |
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+ |
+ |
+ |
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+ |
+ |
+ |
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+ |
+ |
+ |
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- |
+ |
+ |
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Other countries |
+ |
+ |
+ |
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Total Continental Europe |
+ |
+ |
+ |
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+ |
+ |
+ |
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+ |
+ |
+ |
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+ |
+ |
+ |
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Total |
+ |
+ |
+ |
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Total worldwide |
+ |
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+ |
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GLOSSARY
- Gulf Cooperation Council countries include:
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- North East Asia includes:
ABOUT GLOBAL BLUE
Global Blue is the business partner for the shopping journey, providing technology and services to enhance the experience and drive performance.
With over 40 years of expertise, today we connect thousands of retailers, acquirers, and hotels with nearly 80 million consumers across 53 countries, in three industries: Tax Free Shopping, Payments and Post-Purchase solutions.
With over 2,000 employees, Global Blue generated
For more information, please visit www.globalblue.com
Global Blue Monthly Intelligence Briefing, March 2024, Source: Global Blue
1 Recovery rate is equal to 2024 Issued Sales in Store divided by 2019 Issued Sales in Store, like-for-like (i.e.: at constant merchant scope and exchange rates).
2 Ramadan took place from March 10 to April 9 in 2024; while it took place from May 5 to June 3in 2019.
3 Growth rate variation year-on-year (2024 vs. the same period in 2023)
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240411918276/en/
MEDIA
Virginie Alem – SVP Marketing & Communications
Mail: valem@globalblue.com
INVESTOR RELATIONS
Frances Gibbons – Head of Investor Relations
Mob: +44 (0)7815 034 212
Mail: fgibbons@globalblue.com
Source: Global Blue
FAQ
What is the global dynamic recovery rate for Tax Free Shopping in March 2024 compared to 2019?
Which countries in Continental Europe showed strong recovery in Tax Free Shopping in March 2024?
How did US shopper recovery fare in March 2024 compared to January/February 2024?
What impacted the GCC shopper recovery rate in March 2024?
Which markets drove the recovery in Asia Pacific in March 2024?
What was the year-on-year growth rate in Tax Free Shopping in March 2024 compared to last year?
Which nationality showed the highest growth rate in Tax Free Shopping in March 2024?
What was the growth rate for US shoppers' Tax Free Spend in March 2024?
