Recent Rate Run-Up Expected to Keep Existing Home Sales Near Historic Lows Through 2025
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group has revised its housing market forecast, projecting only a 4% increase in existing home sales for 2025, down from the previous 11% forecast. This adjustment reflects recent significant increases in mortgage rates, now expected to end 2025 at 6.3% and remain above 6% through 2026. Despite challenges, new home sales are expected to improve, with builders offering buyer incentives. The group maintains its economic growth outlook near the long-run trend of 2.2%, though core inflation remains sticky. A significant 17% improvement in existing home sales is anticipated for 2026 as affordability conditions improve and pent-up demand materializes.
Il Gruppo di Ricerca Economica e Strategica di Fannie Mae ha rivisto la sua previsione per il mercato immobiliare, prevedendo solo un aumento del 4% nelle vendite di case esistenti per il 2025, rispetto alla precedente stima dell'11%. Questo aggiustamento riflette i recenti aumenti significativi nei tassi di interesse sui mutui, che ora si prevede raggiungano il 6,3% entro la fine del 2025 e rimangano sopra il 6% fino al 2026. Nonostante le difficoltà, si prevede un miglioramento nelle vendite di case nuove, con i costruttori che offrono incentivi ai compratori. Il gruppo mantiene la sua prospettiva di crescita economica vicino alla tendenza a lungo termine del 2,2%, anche se l'inflazione di base rimane tenace. Si prevede un miglioramento significativo del 17% nelle vendite di case esistenti per il 2026, poiché le condizioni di accessibilità migliorano e si materializza la domanda repressa.
El Grupo de Investigación Económica y Estratégica de Fannie Mae ha revisado su pronóstico del mercado de vivienda, proyectando solo un aumento del 4% en las ventas de casas existentes para 2025, una reducción respecto al pronóstico anterior del 11%. Este ajuste refleja aumentos significativos recientes en las tasas hipotecarias, que se espera terminen 2025 en un 6.3% y permanezcan por encima del 6% hasta 2026. A pesar de los desafíos, se espera que las ventas de casas nuevas mejoren, con constructoras que ofrecen incentivos a los compradores. El grupo mantiene su perspectiva de crecimiento económico cerca de la tendencia a largo plazo del 2.2%, aunque la inflación subyacente sigue siendo persistente. Se anticipa una mejora significativa del 17% en las ventas de casas existentes para 2026 a medida que mejoran las condiciones de asequibilidad y se materializa la demanda acumulada.
팬니 메이의 경제 및 전략 연구 그룹은 주택 시장 예측을 수정하여 2025년 기존 주택 판매가 4% 증가할 것이라고 전망했습니다. 이는 이전의 11% 예상치에서 하향 조정된 수치입니다. 이 조정은 최근 주택담보대출 금리의 상당한 상승을 반영하며, 2025년 말에 6.3%에 이를 것으로 예상되며, 2026년까지 6%를 초과할 것으로 보입니다. 어려움에도 불구하고, 신규 주택 판매는 개선될 것으로 예상되며, 건축업체들은 구매자에게 인센티브를 제공하고 있습니다. 이 그룹은 경제 성장 전망을 장기 추세인 2.2% 근처로 유지하고 있지만, 기초 인플레이션은 여전히 끈질기게 지속되고 있습니다. 2026년에는 기존 주택 판매가 17% 개선될 것으로 예상되며, 이는 가격 접근성이 개선되고 억눌린 수요가 실현됨에 따라 이루어질 것입니다.
Le Groupe de Recherche Économique et Stratégique de Fannie Mae a révisé ses prévisions pour le marché de l'immobilier, projetant seulement une augmentation de 4% des ventes de maisons existantes pour 2025, en baisse par rapport à l'ancienne estimation de 11%. Ce réajustement reflète les augmentations significatives des taux hypothécaires récents, qui devraient atteindre 6,3% d'ici fin 2025 et rester au-dessus de 6% jusqu'en 2026. Malgré les défis, les ventes de nouvelles maisons devraient s'améliorer, les bâtisseurs offrant des incitations aux acheteurs. Le groupe maintient son estimation de croissance économique proche de la tendance à long terme de 2,2%, bien que l'inflation de base reste persistante. Une amélioration significative de 17% des ventes de maisons existantes est anticipée pour 2026, alors que les conditions d'accessibilité s'améliorent et que la demande refoulée se matérialise.
Die Wirtschafts- und Strategieforschungsgruppe von Fannie Mae hat ihre Prognose für den Wohnungsmarkt überarbeitet und rechnet nun mit einem 4%igen Anstieg der Verkäufe bestehender Häuser für 2025, was einen Rückgang gegenüber der vorherigen Prognose von 11% darstellt. Diese Anpassung spiegelt die deutlichen Anstiege der Hypothekenzinsen wider, die nun für Ende 2025 bei 6,3% erwartet werden und bis 2026 über 6% bleiben sollen. Trotz der Herausforderungen wird eine Verbesserung der Verkäufe neuer Häuser erwartet, da die Bauherren Anreize für Käufer anbieten. Die Gruppe hält ihre Wachstumsprognose der Wirtschaft nahe dem langfristigen Trend von 2,2%, auch wenn die Kerninflation hartnäckig bleibt. Für 2026 wird eine signifikante Verbesserung der Verkäufe bestehender Häuser um 17% prognostiziert, da sich die Erschwinglichkeit verbessert und die aufgestaute Nachfrage realisiert wird.
- Projected 17% improvement in existing home sales for 2026
- New home sales expected to improve with builder incentives
- Economic growth maintaining steady pace at 2.2%
- Labor market outlook remains positive
- Existing home sales forecast reduced to 4% growth for 2025 (down from 11%)
- Mortgage rates revised upward to 6.3% by end of 2025
- Core inflation remains elevated and progress has stalled
- Housing inventory expected to remain subdued through 2024
- Lock-in effect continuing to constrain housing market activity
Economy Remains on Strong Footing, though Core Inflation Remains Sticky
The ESR Group's economic growth outlook is little changed this month, with minor upward revisions to near-term growth in personal consumption. Its 2026 GDP forecast sees the economy continuing to grow near its long-run trend rate of about 2.2 percent. Of note, the ESR Group now expects core inflation, for which further progress has largely stalled in recent months, to remain elevated in the near term. This is offset somewhat by the expectation for lower oil prices due to recent movements in oil markets and a softer global demand outlook, which will likely work to keep topline inflation measures below core inflation through 2025. The ESR Group expects core inflation to return to the Fed's 2 percent target by the second quarter of 2026, but it now expects somewhat less monetary policy easing in 2025 than previously forecasted.
"Long-run interest rates have moved upward over the past couple months following a string of continued strong economic data and disappointing inflation readings," said Mark Palim, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. "To the extent that the recent run-up in rates has been driven by market expectations of stronger economic growth, we think this bodes well for the labor market outlook and home purchase demand. However, we expect inventories of homes added to the market, and therefore sales of existing homes, to remain subdued through next year, as the higher mortgage rate environment is likely to strengthen the ongoing lock-in effect. How these competing forces balance out is currently an open question, but for now we continue to expect affordability to remain the primary constraint on housing activity through our forecast horizon."
Visit the Economic and Strategic Research site at fanniemae.com to read the full November 2024 Economic Outlook, including the Economic Developments Commentary, Economic Forecast, Housing Forecast, and Multifamily Market Commentary. To receive e-mail updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, please click here.
Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.
About the ESR Group
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Mark Palim, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and mortgage lender groups to provide forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets.
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Fannie Mae advances equitable and sustainable access to homeownership and quality, affordable rental housing for millions of people across America. We enable the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and drive responsible innovation to make homebuying and renting easier, fairer, and more accessible. To learn more, visit:
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