Housing Market Unlikely to Thaw in 2025 Due to Affordability Challenges and 'Lock-in Effect'
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group predicts challenging housing market conditions for 2025, with existing home sales expected to remain near 30-year lows. The forecast indicates mortgage rates will stay above 6% despite modest declines, with potential volatility creating temporary opportunities for homebuyers.
Key predictions include: deceleration in national home price growth, continued strength in new home construction where possible, and regional variations in market performance, with stronger activity expected in the Sun Belt region compared to supply-constrained areas like the Northeast. Notably, 2025 may see nominal wage growth outpacing home price growth for the first time in over a decade, potentially offering some relief to prospective homebuyers.
Il gruppo di ricerca economica e strategica di Fannie Mae prevede condizioni sfidanti nel mercato immobiliare per il 2025, con le vendite di case esistenti che si prevede rimarranno vicino ai minimi storici degli ultimi 30 anni. Le previsioni indicano che i tassi ipotecari rimarranno sopra il 6% nonostante lievi diminuzioni, con una potenziale volatilità che creerà opportunità temporanee per i compratori di case.
Le previsioni chiave includono: un rallentamento nella crescita dei prezzi delle case a livello nazionale, una continua solidità nella costruzione di nuove case dove possibile, e variazioni regionali nelle performance di mercato, con una maggiore attività prevista nella regione del Sun Belt rispetto a zone come il Northeast, caratterizzate da vincoli all'offerta. È interessante notare che nel 2025 la crescita nominale dei salari potrebbe superare quella dei prezzi delle case per la prima volta in oltre un decennio, offrendo potenzialmente un certo sollievo ai compratori di case in prospettiva.
El grupo de investigación económica y estratégica de Fannie Mae predice condiciones desafiantes en el mercado de la vivienda para 2025, con las ventas de viviendas existentes que se espera se mantendrán cerca de mínimos históricos de 30 años. Las proyecciones indican que las tasas hipotecarias permanecerán por encima del 6% a pesar de ligeras caídas, con una volatilidad potencial que creará oportunidades temporales para los compradores de viviendas.
Las predicciones clave incluyen: desaceleración en el crecimiento de los precios de la vivienda a nivel nacional, continua fortaleza en la construcción de nuevas casas donde sea posible, y variaciones regionales en el rendimiento del mercado, con una actividad más fuerte esperada en la región del Sun Belt en comparación con áreas con restricciones de suministro como el noreste. Cabe señalar que en 2025 el crecimiento nominal de los salarios podría superar el crecimiento de los precios de la vivienda por primera vez en más de una década, lo que podría ofrecer algún alivio a los compradores de viviendas potenciales.
팬니 메이의 경제 및 전략 연구 그룹은 2025년 주택 시장에 도전적인 조건이 예상되며, 기존 주택 판매는 30년 만에 최저 수준 근처에 머무를 것으로 예측하고 있습니다. 예측에 따르면 모기지 금리는 완만한 하락에도 불구하고 6% 이상으로 유지될 것이며, 잠재적인 변동성이 주택 구매자에게 일시적인 기회를 제공할 것입니다.
주요 예측 사항에는: 국가적으로 주택 가격 성장의 둔화, 가능한 곳에서의 신규 주택 건설의 지속적인 강세, 그리고 시장 성과의 지역적 변동이 포함됩니다. Sun Belt 지역에서는 공급 제약이 있는 북동부 지역에 비해 더 강한 활동이 예상됩니다. 특히 2025년에는 명목 임금 성장률이 10년 이상 만에 처음으로 주택 가격 성장률을 초과할 수 있어, 잠재적인 주택 구매자에게 다소의 완화를 제공할 수 있습니다.
Le groupe de recherche économique et stratégique de Fannie Mae prévoit des conditions difficiles sur le marché du logement pour 2025, avec des ventes de maisons existantes qui devraient rester près des plus bas de 30 ans. Les prévisions indiquent que les taux hypothécaires resteront supérieurs à 6 % malgré des baisses modestes, avec une volatilité potentielle créant des opportunités temporaires pour les acheteurs de maisons.
Les principales prévisions comprennent : une décélération de la croissance des prix immobiliers au niveau national, une force continue dans la construction de nouvelles maisons là où c'est possible, et des variations régionales dans la performance du marché, avec une activité plus forte prévue dans la région du Sun Belt par rapport aux zones contraintes par l'offre comme le Nord-Est. Il est à noter qu'en 2025, la croissance nominale des salaires pourrait dépasser celle des prix des maisons pour la première fois en plus d'une décennie, offrant ainsi un certain répit aux acheteurs de maisons potentiels.
Die wirtschaftliche und strategische Forschungsgruppe von Fannie Mae prognostiziert herausfordernde Bedingungen auf dem Wohnungsmarkt für 2025, wobei der Verkauf bestehender Wohnungen voraussichtlich nahe bei den 30-jährigen Tiefstständen bleiben wird. Die Prognose zeigt, dass die Hypothekenzinsen trotz moderater Rückgänge über 6% bleiben werden, während potenzielle Schwankungen vorübergehende Möglichkeiten für Käufer von Eigenheimen schaffen.
Zu den wichtigsten Vorhersagen gehören: eine Verlangsamung des nationalen Anstiegs der Immobilienpreise, anhaltende Stärke beim Bau neuer Häuser, wo dies möglich ist, und regionale Unterschiede in der Marktentwicklung, wobei im Sun Belt eine stärkere Aktivität als in angebotsbeschränkten Gebieten wie dem Nordosten erwartet wird. Bemerkenswert ist, dass 2025 das nominale Lohnwachstum erstmals seit über einem Jahrzehnt schneller als das Wachstum der Immobilienpreise ansteigen könnte, was potenziell eine Erleichterung für zukünftige Käufer von Eigenheimen bieten könnte.
- Nominal wage growth expected to outpace home price growth for first time in over a decade
- New home sales projected to remain strong in certain markets
- Broader economy expected to expand at above-trend pace through 2026
- Mortgage rates forecasted to remain above 6% throughout 2025
- Existing home sales predicted to stay near 30-year lows
- Housing supply expected to remain below pre-pandemic levels
- Continued affordability challenges expected to hamper market activity
Fannie Mae Economists Share 5 Housing Market Predictions for New Year
As part of its latest outlook, Fannie Mae's economists shared five predictions for the housing market in 2025. They expect:
- Average mortgage rates will decline modestly but remain above 6 percent, with likely bouts of volatility.
- Existing homes sales will remain near 30-year lows, but location matters.
- New home sales will remain a bright spot in the housing market (where they can be built).
- National home price growth will decelerate.
- Multifamily housing will remain in a holding pattern.
"From an affordability perspective, we think 2025 will look a lot like 2024, with mortgage rates above 6 percent, home price growth easing from recent highs but staying positive, and supply remaining below pre-pandemic levels," said Mark Palim, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. "Still, heightened mortgage rate volatility may present opportunities for would-be homebuyers to take advantage of temporary lows, and we may see stretches where housing activity is boosted by lower rates — but, on average, we expect mortgage rates to remain elevated and a hindrance to activity. While we think conditions on a national basis will remain challenging, we're seeing meaningful regional differences in market conditions, and the homebuying experience — as the adage goes — will continue to be a local one. For example, in the Sun Belt, where construction has been robust for a few years and homebuilders are targeting first-time homebuyers with some offerings, we expect to see relatively strong housing activity. By comparison, we're not expecting to see the same in the supply-constrained Northeast. And while we foresee the current affordability crunch hampering activity through our forecast horizon, we expect nominal wage growth will outpace home price growth for the first time in more than a decade in 2025, slowly but surely providing some much-needed relief to potential homebuyers."
Visit the Economic and Strategic Research site at fanniemae.com to read the full December 2024 Economic Outlook, including the Economic Developments Commentary, Economic Forecast, Housing Forecast, and Multifamily Market Commentary. To receive e-mail updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, please click here.
Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.
About the ESR Group
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Mark Palim, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and mortgage lender groups to provide forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets.
About Fannie Mae
Fannie Mae advances equitable and sustainable access to homeownership and quality, affordable rental housing for millions of people across America. We enable the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and drive responsible innovation to make homebuying and renting easier, fairer, and more accessible. To learn more, visit:
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