Higher Mortgage Rates Likely to Keep Existing Home Sales Near Multi-Decade Lows
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group forecasts continued housing market challenges in their January 2025 commentary. Due to rising 10-year Treasury yields and increased mortgage rates, existing home sales are expected to remain near their lowest levels since 1995. The ESR Group has revised their mortgage rate projections upward to 6.5% for 2025 and 6.3% for 2026.
Home price appreciation is forecast to decelerate to 3.5% in 2025, down from 5.8% in 2024, with significant regional variations based on construction activity and housing supply. The group predicts real GDP growth of 2.2% for 2025, following an estimated 2.5% in 2024.
While the labor market shows resilience, affordability challenges persist due to high mortgage rates. A positive note is that income growth is expected to outpace both home and rent price increases, and new homes are becoming competitively priced with existing homes in many markets.
Il gruppo di Ricerca Economica e Strategica (ESR) di Fannie Mae prevede che il mercato immobiliare continuerà a presentare sfide nel loro commento di gennaio 2025. A causa dell'aumento dei rendimenti dei Treasury a 10 anni e dell'innalzamento dei tassi ipotecari, si prevede che le vendite di case esistenti rimangano vicino ai loro livelli più bassi dal 1995. Il gruppo ESR ha rivisto al rialzo le sue previsioni sui tassi ipotecari a 6,5% per il 2025 e 6,3% per il 2026.
Si prevede che l'apprezzamento dei prezzi delle case decelererà al 3,5% nel 2025, in calo rispetto al 5,8% nel 2024, con significative variazioni regionali basate sull'attività edile e sull'offerta abitativa. Il gruppo prevede una crescita del PIL reale del 2,2% per il 2025, dopo una stima del 2,5% nel 2024.
Sebbene il mercato del lavoro dimostri resilienza, le sfide relative all'accessibilità rimangono a causa dei tassi ipotecari elevati. Una nota positiva è che si prevede che la crescita dei redditi superi sia l'aumento dei prezzi delle abitazioni che quello degli affitti, e le nuove case stanno diventando competitivamente prezzi rispetto alle case esistenti in molti mercati.
El grupo de Investigación Económica y Estratégica (ESR) de Fannie Mae pronostica que el mercado de vivienda seguirá enfrentando desafíos en su comentario de enero de 2025. Debido al aumento de los rendimientos del Tesoro a 10 años y al aumento de las tasas hipotecarias, se espera que las ventas de casas existentes se mantengan cerca de sus niveles más bajos desde 1995. El grupo ESR ha revisado al alza sus proyecciones de tasas hipotecarias a 6,5% para 2025 y 6,3% para 2026.
Se prevé que la apreciación del precio de las viviendas se desacelere al 3,5% en 2025, bajando del 5,8% en 2024, con variaciones regionales significativas basadas en la actividad constructiva y la oferta de vivienda. El grupo predice un crecimiento del PIB real de 2,2% para 2025, después de una estimación del 2,5% en 2024.
Si bien el mercado laboral muestra resiliencia, persisten los desafíos de asequibilidad debido a las altas tasas hipotecarias. Una nota positiva es que se espera que el crecimiento de los ingresos supere tanto el aumento de los precios de las viviendas como el de los alquileres, y las viviendas nuevas están siendo cada vez más competitivas en precio con las viviendas existentes en muchos mercados.
팬이 메의 경제 및 전략 연구(ESR) 그룹은 2025년 1월 코멘터리에서 주택 시장의 지속적인 도전에 대해 예측합니다. 10년 만기 국채 수익률과 증가하는 주택 담보 대출 금리로 인해 기존 주택 판매는 1995년 이후 최저 수준을 유지할 것으로 예상됩니다. ESR 그룹은 2025년 주택 담보 대출 금리를 6.5%로, 2026년에는 6.3%으로 상향 조정했습니다.
주택 가격 상승률은 2025년 3.5%로 둔화될 것으로 예상되며, 이는 2024년 5.8%에서 하락한 수치입니다. 건설 활동과 주택 공급에 따라 지역별로 크고 중요한 차이가 나타납니다. 그룹은 2025년 실질 GDP 성장률을 2.2%로 예측하며, 2024년 예측치인 2.5%에 이어집니다.
노동 시장은 탄력성을 보여주지만 높은 주택 담보 대출 금리 때문에 구매 능력에 대한 문제가 지속되고 있습니다. 긍정적인 점은 소득 증가가 주택 및 임대료 상승률을 초과할 것으로 예상되며, 많은 시장에서 새로 지어진 주택이 기존 주택과 경쟁력 있는 가격을 형성하고 있다는 점입니다.
Le groupe de Recherche Économique et Stratégique (ESR) de Fannie Mae prévoit des défis continus pour le marché immobilier dans son commentaire de janvier 2025. En raison de la hausse des rendements des obligations d'État à 10 ans et de l'augmentation des taux hypothécaires, les ventes de maisons existantes devraient rester proches de leurs niveaux les plus bas depuis 1995. Le groupe ESR a révisé à la hausse ses prévisions de taux hypothécaires à 6,5% pour 2025 et 6,3% pour 2026.
L'appréciation des prix de l'immobilier devrait décélérer à 3,5% en 2025, contre 5,8% en 2024, avec des variations régionales significatives basées sur l'activité de construction et l'offre de logement. Le groupe prévoit une croissance du PIB réel de 2,2% pour 2025, après une estimation de 2,5% en 2024.
Bien que le marché de l'emploi montre une résilience, les défis liés à l'accessibilité persistent en raison des taux hypothécaires élevés. Une note positive est que l'augmentation des revenus devrait dépasser à la fois l'augmentation des prix des maisons et celle des loyers, et que les nouvelles maisons deviennent de plus en plus compétitives en termes de prix par rapport aux maisons existantes dans de nombreux marchés.
Die wirtschaftliche und strategische Forschungsgruppe (ESR) von Fannie Mae prognostiziert in ihrem Kommentar vom Januar 2025, dass der Immobilienmarkt weiterhin Herausforderungen gegenüberstehen wird. Aufgrund steigender 10-jähriger Staatsanleihenzinsen und erhöhter Hypothekenzinsen wird erwartet, dass die Verkäufe bestehender Wohnungen nahe den niedrigsten Niveaus seit 1995 bleiben. Die ESR-Gruppe hat ihre Hypothekenzinsschätzungen auf 6,5% für 2025 und 6,3% für 2026 nach oben korrigiert.
Der Anstieg der Hauspreise wird auf 3,5% im Jahr 2025 zurückgehen, verglichen mit 5,8% im Jahr 2024, mit erheblichen regionalen Variationen in Abhängigkeit von der Bautätigkeit und dem Wohnungsangebot. Die Gruppe prognostiziert ein reales BIP-Wachstum von 2,2% für 2025, nach einer Schätzung von 2,5% im Jahr 2024.
Obwohl der Arbeitsmarkt widerstandsfähig ist, bestehen weiterhin Herausforderungen bei der Erschwinglichkeit aufgrund der hohen Hypothekenzinsen. Eine positive Nachricht ist, dass das Einkommenswachstum voraussichtlich sowohl die Preissteigerungen bei Immobilien als auch bei Mieten übertreffen wird, und neue Wohnungen in vielen Märkten preislich wettbewerbsfähig mit bestehenden Wohnungen werden.
- Income growth expected to outpace home price and rent increases in 2025
- New homes becoming price-competitive with existing homes
- Continued GDP growth projected at 2.2% for 2025
- Labor market showing resilience
- Mortgage rates revised upward to 6.5% for 2025 and 6.3% for 2026
- Home price appreciation decelerating to 3.5% in 2025 from 5.8% in 2024
- Existing home sales expected to remain at multi-decade lows
- Persistent affordability challenges for potential homebuyers
National Home Price Growth Projected to Decelerate, With Regional Variations Expected
While the ESR Group notes that recent economic data points to a strong end for 2024, particularly in the labor market, little change was made to its outlook for economic growth, reaffirming its view for continued-but-slowing real GDP expansion this year. The ESR Group expects 2025 year-total growth will be 2.2 percent, following predicted final 2024 growth of 2.5 percent.
"While we still see signs of resilience in the labor market, the higher mortgage rates that are associated with a growing economy will likely continue the affordability challenges faced by many potential homebuyers," said Mark Palim, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. "Due to the ongoing lock-in effect and affordability constraints, we currently expect another year of sluggish existing home sales. A silver lining for affordability is that we also anticipate income growth will outpace both home price and rent growth this year — and in many markets, new homes are now priced competitively with existing homes and are far more available. Otherwise, our expectation that home sales activity will remain limited, combined with the elevated rate environment, reaffirms our view that on a national level the 2025 housing market is shaping up to feel a lot like 2024."
Visit the Economic and Strategic Research site at fanniemae.com to read the full January 2025 Economic Outlook, including the Economic Developments Commentary, Economic Forecast, Housing Forecast, and Multifamily Market Commentary. To receive email updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, please click here.
Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.
About the ESR Group
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Mark Palim, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and mortgage lender groups to provide forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets.
About Fannie Mae
Fannie Mae advances equitable and sustainable access to homeownership and quality, affordable rental housing for millions of people across America. We enable the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and drive responsible innovation to make homebuying and renting easier, fairer, and more accessible. To learn more, visit:
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