House Price Growth Slips to Slowest Pace in Over a Year, According to First American Data & Analytics Monthly Home Price Index Report

Rhea-AI Summary

First American Data & Analytics released its September 2024 Home Price Index (HPI) report, revealing the slowest annual house price appreciation since summer 2023. Key findings include:

- National house prices are 54.4% higher than pre-pandemic levels
- Annual price growth slowed for the ninth consecutive month
- 11 metros outpaced the national 3.9% annual increase
- Strong demand from first-time buyers in the starter home price tier

Chief Economist Mark Fleming noted that while home prices reached a new record high in September, growth continues to slow. He suggests that lower mortgage rates may stimulate demand in coming months, potentially leading to price acceleration if housing supply doesn't increase.

—Slowdown Likely to Continue in the Near Term, but a Re-Acceleration May be on the Horizon, says Chief Economist Mark Fleming—

SANTA ANA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- First American Data & Analytics, a leading national provider of property-centric information, risk management and valuation solutions and a division of First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF), today released its September 2024 Home Price Index (HPI) report. The report tracks home price changes less than four weeks behind real time at the national, state and metropolitan (Core-Based Statistical Area) levels and includes metropolitan price tiers that segment sale transactions into starter, mid and luxury tiers. The full report can be found here.

September¹ National House Price Index

First American Data & Analytics’ National Non-Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) HPI
Metric	Change in HPI
August-September 2024 (month over month)	+0.1 percent
September 2023-September 2024 (year over year)	+3.9 percent

Highlights

• House prices nationally are now 54.4 percent higher compared to pre-pandemic levels (February 2020).
• House price growth reported in last month’s HPI for July 2024 to August 2024 was revised down 0.2 percentage points, from 0.1 percent to -0.1 percent.

Chief Economist Analysis:

“Annual house price appreciation nationally slowed for the ninth consecutive month, falling to the slowest pace since the summer of 2023,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American. “While home prices reached a new record high in September, the pace of growth continues to slow. Lower mortgage rates have improved affordability, which will likely stimulate demand in the coming months, especially if rates continue to ease. If housing supply does not increase amid that potential increased demand, it’s possible that price appreciation could accelerate again.”

September 2024 Local Market Price Tier Highlights

The First American Data & Analytics HPI segments home price changes at the metropolitan level into three price tiers based on local market sales data: starter tier, which represents home sales prices at the bottom third of the market price distribution; mid-tier, which represents home sales prices in the middle third of the market price distribution; and the luxury tier, which represents home sales prices in the top third of the market price distribution.

“Price appreciation in 11 metros outpaced the national 3.9 percent annual increase, and house prices increased year over year in most markets we track as well,” said Fleming. “The ongoing price pressures in the starter home price tier across many markets highlights strong demand from first-time home buyers now armed with improved house-buying power, who face limited inventory at this price point.”

September 2024 First American Data & Analytics Price Tier HPI Highlights²

Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) Ranked by Greatest Year-Over-Year Increases in Starter Tier HPI
CBSA	Change in Starter Tier HPI	Change in Mid-Tier HPI	Change in Luxury Tier HPI
St. Louis	+10.5 percent	+2.6 percent	+1.3 percent
Warren, Mich.	+8.0 percent	+4.0 percent	+4.9 percent
Baltimore	+7.1 percent	+6.3 percent	+5.3 percent
Cambridge, Mass.	+6.9 percent	+3.4 percent	+5.5 percent
Pittsburgh	+6.7 percent	+7.7 percent	+4.1 percent

Additional September 2024 First American Data & Analytics HPI Highlights

Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) with Greatest Year-Over-Year Increases in HPI
CBSA	Change in HPI
Anaheim, Calif.	+7.0 percent
Pittsburgh	+6.3 percent
Miami	+5.3 percent
Cambridge, Mass.	+5.2 percent
Seattle	+5.1 percent
Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) with a Year-Over-Year Decrease in HPI
Oakland, Calif.	-5.8 percent
Tampa, Fla.	-0.3 percent
Denver	-0.3 percent

HPI data for all 50 states and the largest 30 CBSAs by population is available here.

Visit the First American Economic Center for more research on housing market dynamics.

Next Release

The next release of the First American Data & Analytics House Price Index will take place the week of November 18, 2024.

First American Data & Analytics HPI Methodology

The First American Data & Analytics HPI report measures single-family home prices, including distressed sales, with indices updated monthly beginning in 1980 through the month of the current report. HPI data is provided at the national, state and CBSA levels and includes preliminary index estimates for the month prior to the report (i.e. the preliminary result of July transactions is reported in August). The most recent index results are subject to revision as data from more transactions become available.

The HPI uses a repeat-sales methodology, which measures price changes for the same property over time using more than 46 million paired transactions to generate the indices. In non-disclosure states, the HPI utilizes a combination of public sales records, MLS sold and active listings, and appraisal data to estimate house prices. This comprehensive approach is particularly effective in areas where there is limited availability of accurate sale prices, such as non-disclosure states. Property type, price and location data are used to create more refined market segment indices. Real Estate-Owned transactions are not included.

Disclaimer

Opinions, estimates, forecasts and other views contained in this page are those of First American’s Chief Economist, do not necessarily represent the views of First American or its management, should not be construed as indicating First American’s business prospects or expected results, and are subject to change without notice. Although the First American Economics team attempts to provide reliable, useful information, it does not guarantee that the information is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. © 2024 by First American. Information from this page may be used with proper attribution.

About First American Data & Analytics

First American Data & Analytics, a division of First American Financial Corporation, is a national provider of property-centric information, risk management and valuation solutions. First American maintains and curates the industry’s largest property and ownership dataset that includes more than 8 billion document images. Its major platforms and products include: DataTree^®, FraudGuard^®, RegsData^®, First American TaxSource™ and ACI^®. Find out more about how First American Data & Analytics powers the real estate, mortgage and title settlement services industries with advanced decisioning solutions at www.FirstAmDNA.com.

About First American

First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF) is a premier provider of title, settlement and risk solutions for real estate transactions. With its combination of financial strength and stability built over more than 135 years, innovative proprietary technologies, and unmatched data assets, the company is leading the digital transformation of its industry. First American also provides data products to the title industry and other third parties; valuation products and services; mortgage subservicing; home warranty products; banking, trust and wealth management services; and other related products and services. With total revenue of $6.0 billion in 2023, the company offers its products and services directly and through its agents throughout the United States and abroad. In 2024, First American was named one of the 100 Best Companies to Work For by Great Place to Work^® and Fortune Magazine for the ninth consecutive year, and named one of the 100 Best Workplaces for Innovators by Fast Company for the second consecutive year. More information about the company can be found at www.firstam.com.

¹ The most recent index results are subject to revision as data from more transactions become available.

² Note: Nassau-County-Suffolk County, NY is excluded from this month’s report due to data disruptions.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241016886059/en/

Media Contact:

Marcus Ginnaty

Corporate Communications

First American Financial Corporation

(714) 250-3298

Investor Contact:

Craig Barberio

Investor Relations

First American Financial Corporation

(714) 250-5214

Source: First American Data & Analytics

FAQ

What was the annual house price appreciation rate in September 2024 according to First American's HPI report?

According to First American's HPI report, the annual house price appreciation rate in September 2024 was 3.9%, which was the slowest pace since summer 2023.

How much higher are national house prices compared to pre-pandemic levels in September 2024?

National house prices in September 2024 are 54.4% higher compared to pre-pandemic levels (February 2020).

Which metropolitan area showed the highest year-over-year increase in the Starter Tier HPI for September 2024?

St. Louis showed the highest year-over-year increase in the Starter Tier HPI at 10.5% for September 2024.

What factor does Mark Fleming suggest could stimulate housing demand in the coming months?

Mark Fleming suggests that lower mortgage rates could improve affordability and stimulate housing demand in the coming months.

Which Core-Based Statistical Area (CBSA) had the greatest year-over-year increase in HPI for September 2024?

Anaheim, California had the greatest year-over-year increase in HPI at 7.0% for September 2024.