DoubleLine Briefing: The State of the U.S. Consumer Through the Lens of Asset-Backed Securities
DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Andrew Hsu and ABS Trader Michael Fine have released a research paper titled 'The State of the U.S. Consumer Through the Lens of Asset-Backed Securities'. The study combines macroeconomic data with high-frequency asset-backed securities (ABS) data to analyze consumer behavior.
Key findings include:
- U.S. consumers show persistent resilience, likely due to a strong residential mortgage market, robust labor market, and pandemic-era savings.
- Potential risks exist, including depletion of savings, wage stagnation, rising unemployment, and high consumer prices.
- DoubleLine finds attractive relative value in select ABS consumer market areas.
- Prepayments, defaults, and loss severities remain within reasonable historical average moving bands.
Il Portfolio Manager di DoubleLine, Andrew Hsu, e il Trader di ABS, Michael Fine, hanno pubblicato un documento di ricerca intitolato 'Lo Stato del Consumatore Statunitense Attraverso la Prospettiva delle Attività Securitizzate'. Lo studio combina dati macroeconomici con dati di attività securitizzate (ABS) ad alta frequenza per analizzare il comportamento dei consumatori.
I principali risultati includono:
- I consumatori statunitensi mostrano una resilienza persistente, probabilmente a causa di un forte mercato dei mutui residenziali, di un mercato del lavoro solido e dei risparmi accumulati durante la pandemia.
- Esistono rischi potenziali, tra cui l'esaurimento dei risparmi, la stagnazione salariale, l'aumento della disoccupazione e l'alto costo dei beni di consumo.
- DoubleLine trova un valore relativo interessante in alcune aree di mercato dei consumatori ABS selezionate.
- I rimborsi anticipati, i default e la severità delle perdite rimangono all'interno di bande storiche medie ragionevoli.
El Gestor de Portafolios de DoubleLine, Andrew Hsu, y el Trader de ABS, Michael Fine, han publicado un documento de investigación titulado 'El Estado del Consumidor Estadounidense a Través de la Lente de los Valores Respaldados por Activos'. El estudio combina datos macroeconómicos con datos de valores respaldados por activos (ABS) de alta frecuencia para analizar el comportamiento del consumidor.
Los hallazgos clave incluyen:
- Los consumidores estadounidenses muestran una resiliencia persistente, probablemente debido a un sólido mercado hipotecario residencial, un mercado laboral robusto y los ahorros acumulados durante la pandemia.
- Existen riesgos potenciales, incluyendo el agotamiento de los ahorros, la estancamiento de salarios, el aumento del desempleo y altos precios al consumidor.
- DoubleLine encuentra un valor relativo atractivo en áreas seleccionadas del mercado de consumidores de ABS.
- Los pagos anticipados, los incumplimientos y la gravedad de las pérdidas se mantienen dentro de bandas históricas promedio razonables.
더블라인 포트폴리오 매니저 앤드류 수(Andrew Hsu)와 ABS 트레이더 마이클 파인(Michael Fine)은 '자산 담보 증권을 통한 미국 소비자의 상태'라는 제목의 연구 논문을 발표했습니다. 이 연구는 거시 경제 데이터와 고주파 자산 담보 증권(ABS) 데이터를 결합하여 소비자 행동을 분석합니다.
주요 발견 사항은 다음과 같습니다:
- 미국 소비자들은 강력한 주택 담보 대출 시장, 탄탄한 노동 시장, 그리고 팬데믹 시대의 저축 덕분에 지속적인 회복력을 보이고 있습니다.
- 저축 고갈, 임금 정체, 실업 증가, 높은 소비자 물가 등 잠재적인 위험이 존재합니다.
- 더블라인은 특정 ABS 소비자 시장 영역에서 매력적인 상대 가치를 찾고 있습니다.
- 조기 상환, 채무 불이행 및 손실 심각도는 합리적인 역사적 평균 범위 내에 유지되고 있습니다.
Le gestionnaire de portefeuille de DoubleLine, Andrew Hsu, et le trader d'ABS, Michael Fine, ont publié un document de recherche intitulé 'L'État du Consommateur Américain à Travers le Prisme des Titres Adossés à des Actifs'. L'étude combine des données macroéconomiques avec des données d'actifs adossés (ABS) haute fréquence pour analyser le comportement des consommateurs.
Les principales conclusions comprennent :
- Les consommateurs américains montrent une résilience persistante, probablement due à un marché hypothécaire résidentiel fort, un marché du travail robuste et des économies constituées pendant la pandémie.
- Des risques potentiels existent, y compris l'épuisement des économies, la stagnation des salaires, la hausse du chômage et des prix élevés pour les consommateurs.
- DoubleLine trouve une valeur relative attrayante dans certaines zones du marché des consommateurs ABS.
- Les remboursements anticipés, les défauts de paiement et la gravité des pertes restent dans des bandes de moyenne historique raisonnable.
Der Portfolio-Manager von DoubleLine, Andrew Hsu, und der ABS-Händler Michael Fine haben ein Forschungsdokument mit dem Titel 'Der Zustand des US-Verbrauchers durch die Linse der durch Vermögenswerte gesicherten Wertpapiere' veröffentlicht. Die Studie kombiniert makroökonomische Daten mit hochfrequenten Daten zu durch Vermögenswerte gesicherten Wertpapieren (ABS), um das Verbraucherverhalten zu analysieren.
Wesentliche Ergebnisse sind:
- US-Verbraucher zeigen eine anhaltende Resilienz, was wahrscheinlich auf einen starken Markt für Wohnimmobilienkredite, einen robusten Arbeitsmarkt und Ersparnisse aus der Pandemie zurückzuführen ist.
- Hinweise auf potenzielle Risiken sind die Erschöpfung der Ersparnisse, stagnierende Löhne, steigende Arbeitslosigkeit und hohe Verbraucherpreise.
- DoubleLine findet in ausgewählten Bereichen des ABS-Verbrauchermarktes attraktive relative Werte.
- Voranmeldungen, Ausfälle und Verlustschweregrade bleiben im Rahmen angemessener historischer Durchschnittswerte.
- U.S. consumer resilience supported by strong residential mortgage market and robust labor market
- Attractive relative value opportunities in select ABS consumer market areas
- Prepayments, defaults, and loss severities within reasonable historical average ranges
- Potential risks include depletion of pandemic-era savings
- Wage stagnation and recent rise in unemployment
- Ongoing high consumer prices despite cooling inflation rates
Insights
The research paper by DoubleLine offers valuable insights into consumer behavior and its impact on asset-backed securities (ABS). The analysis highlights a resilient U.S. consumer, supported by a strong residential mortgage market, robust labor conditions and pandemic-era savings. However, it's important to note the potential risks identified, including depleting savings, wage stagnation, rising unemployment and persistent high consumer prices.
From an investor's perspective, the paper suggests attractive relative value opportunities in select ABS consumer markets. This indicates potential for yield in a sector that's closely tied to consumer financial health. The authors' emphasis on monitoring prepayments, defaults and loss severities within historical averages suggests a cautious yet optimistic outlook.
Investors should consider how these consumer trends might affect various sectors beyond ABS, such as retail, housing and consumer discretionary stocks. The overall tone suggests a market that's navigating between strength and potential headwinds, requiring vigilant analysis and selective positioning.
This research provides a nuanced view of the U.S. consumer landscape, blending macroeconomic data with high-frequency ABS insights. The persistence of consumer resilience, despite inflationary pressures, is a key takeaway that could influence market sentiment across various sectors.
Investors should pay attention to the dichotomy between current strength and looming risks. The depletion of pandemic savings, coupled with wage stagnation and rising unemployment, could signal a turning point in consumer behavior. This might impact consumer discretionary stocks and retail-focused REITs in the medium term.
The paper's focus on relative value in select ABS markets suggests potential opportunities for yield-seeking investors. However, the emphasis on monitoring key metrics implies a need for careful security selection and ongoing vigilance. This cautious optimism could be extrapolated to other consumer-linked investment vehicles, prompting a balanced approach to risk and reward in related market segments.
The research paper, "The State of the
Consumer resilience, Messrs. Hsu and Fine write, "is likely fueled by the strength of the residential mortgage market, a robust labor market and the excess savings accumulated during the pandemic." Notwithstanding that strength, they note that "potential risks to the consumer persist, including the depletion of these savings, wage stagnation, a recent rise in unemployment and ongoing high consumer prices, notwithstanding cooling in the year-over-year rate of inflation."
Amid that conjuncture of consumer resilience and economic risk, the authors report that DoubleLine continues "to find attractive relative value in select areas of the ABS consumer market. While prepayments, defaults and loss severities require close monitoring, they all remain within reasonable historical average moving bands."
Andrew Hsu, CFA, is a Portfolio Manager for the DoubleLine Total Return and ABS/Infrastructure Income strategies. Mr. Hsu is a permanent member of the Fixed Income Asset Allocation and Structured Products committees. Prior to that, he was responsible for analysis and trading of structured products, where his focus included residential RMBS and ABS transactions. Mr. Hsu's responsibilities have also included structuring and negotiating terms on new-issue transactions and forming strategic partnerships with issuing entities in order to participate in key transactions.
Michael Fine is a Trader on DoubleLine's ABS team. Previously, he was an Analyst on the Risk Management team focusing on credit research and trading. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Fine was with Western Asset Management as an Analyst performing structured credit research and providing portfolio analysis on multisector fixed-income portfolios. Prior to that, he was member of the Analytics team.
About DoubleLine
DoubleLine Capital LP is an investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. DoubleLine's offices can be reached by telephone at (813) 791-7333 or by email at info@doubleline.com. Media can reach DoubleLine by email at media@doubleline.com. DoubleLine® is a registered trademark of DoubleLine Capital LP.
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SOURCE DoubleLine
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