Cincinnati Financial Corporation Announces Preliminary Estimate for First-Quarter Storm Losses

Rhea-AI Summary

Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF) announced its preliminary estimates for the first quarter of 2023, projecting pretax catastrophe losses of approximately $235 million. This is expected to raise the combined ratio by about 12.8 percentage points, significantly above the historical average of 6.3 percentage points for the same period. Major losses stemmed from three storms in March, costing roughly $171 million in total. Estimated losses include $110 million from commercial and $115 million from personal lines insurance. The property casualty combined ratio is projected to be between 99% and 103%. Despite these challenges, net written premium growth is estimated at 6% for the quarter. Final results will be reported on April 27, 2023.

Positive

• Estimated net written premium growth of approximately 6% for Q1 2023.

Negative

• Preliminary catastrophe losses estimated at $235 million, significantly impacting the combined ratio.
• Projected combined ratio affected by approximately 12.8 percentage points due to catastrophe losses.

CINCINNATI, April 17, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Cincinnati Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: CINF) today announced that its consolidated first-quarter results are expected to include pretax catastrophe losses of approximately $235 million – representing an impact on the first-quarter 2023 combined ratio of approximately 12.8 percentage points, based on estimated property casualty earned premiums. The company's 5–year historical average contribution of catastrophe losses to the combined ratio is 6.3 percentage points for the first quarter.

The catastrophe loss estimate includes $171 million in aggregate for three March storms that produced tornadoes in several states, in addition to less severe storms. The estimate for total first-quarter 2023 catastrophe losses incurred includes approximately $110 million for the commercial lines insurance segment; $115 million for the personal lines insurance segment; $1 million for the excess and surplus lines insurance segment; $3 million for Cincinnati Re^® and $6 million for Cincinnati Global Underwriting Ltd^SM.

Steven J. Johnston, chairman and CEO, commented: "March roared in and left just as loudly with storm systems that impacted at least a dozen states each. Our claims service, delivered by teams of Cincinnati associates, continues to support agents and lead to satisfied policyholders as we quickly inspected losses and issued payments."

"We take the responsibility of paying our claims seriously and manage our capital to ensure we have ample capacity to absorb insured losses. Our long-term focus allows us to partner with the best independent agents in the country and to provide the highest quality service during the claims handling process."

Estimated losses and expenses from catastrophe-related claims are expected to bring the company's first-quarter 2023 property casualty combined ratio to approximately 99% to 103%. Net written premium growth is estimated to be approximately 6% for the quarter.

The unaudited loss estimates and other data presented in this release is preliminary, based upon management estimates and subject to the completion of the company's procedures for the preparation of its quarterly financial statements. As a result, further adjustments may be made between now and the time financial results for the quarter are finalized. 

Cincinnati Financial plans to report final results for first-quarter 2023 on Thursday, April 27, after the close of regular trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market. A conference call to discuss the results will be held at 11 a.m. ET on Friday, April 28, with a live, audio-only internet broadcast available at cinfin.com/investors.

About Cincinnati Financial
Cincinnati Financial Corporation offers primarily business, home and auto insurance through The Cincinnati Insurance Company and its two standard market property casualty companies. The same local independent insurance agencies that market those policies may offer products of our other subsidiaries, including life insurance, fixed annuities and surplus lines property and casualty insurance. For additional information about the company, please visit cinfin.com.

Mailing Address:		Street Address:
P.O. Box 145496		6200 South Gilmore Road
Cincinnati, Ohio 45250-5496		Fairfield, Ohio 45014-5141

Safe Harbor Statement
This is our "Safe Harbor" statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Our business is subject to certain risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the forward-looking statements in this report. Some of those risks and uncertainties are discussed in our 2022 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 1A, Risk Factors, Page 32.

Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to:

• Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic that could affect results for reasons such as:
• Securities market disruption or volatility and related effects such as decreased economic activity and continued supply chain disruptions that affect our investment portfolio and book value
• An unusually high level of claims in our insurance or reinsurance operations that increase litigation-related expenses
• An unusually high level of insurance losses, including risk of legislation or court decisions extending business interruption insurance in commercial property coverage forms to cover claims for pure economic loss related to the COVID-19 pandemic
• Decreased premium revenue and cash flow from disruption to our distribution channel of independent agents, consumer self-isolation, travel limitations, business restrictions and decreased economic activity
• Inability of our workforce, agencies or vendors to perform necessary business functions
• Ongoing developments concerning business interruption insurance claims and litigation related to the COVID-19 pandemic that affect our estimates of losses and loss adjustment expenses or our ability to reasonably estimate such losses, such as:
• The continuing duration of the pandemic and governmental actions to limit the spread of the virus that may produce additional economic losses
• The number of policyholders that will ultimately submit claims or file lawsuits
• The lack of submitted proofs of loss for allegedly covered claims
• Judicial rulings in similar litigation involving other companies in the insurance industry
• Differences in state laws and developing case law
• Litigation trends, including varying legal theories advanced by policyholders
• Whether and to what degree any class of policyholders may be certified
• The inherent unpredictability of litigation
• Unusually high levels of catastrophe losses due to risk concentrations, changes in weather patterns (whether as a result of global climate change or otherwise), environmental events, war or political unrest, terrorism incidents, cyberattacks, civil unrest or other causes
• Increased frequency and/or severity of claims or development of claims that are unforeseen at the time of policy issuance, due to inflationary trends or other causes
• Inadequate estimates or assumptions, or reliance on third-party data used for critical accounting estimates
• Declines in overall stock market values negatively affecting our equity portfolio and book value
• Prolonged low interest rate environment or other factors that limit our ability to generate growth in investment income or interest rate fluctuations that result in declining values of fixed-maturity investments, including declines in accounts in which we hold bank-owned life insurance contract assets
• Domestic and global events, such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine, resulting in capital market or credit market uncertainty, followed by prolonged periods of economic instability or recession, that lead to:
• Significant or prolonged decline in the fair value of a particular security or group of securities and impairment of the asset(s)
• Significant decline in investment income due to reduced or eliminated dividend payouts from a particular security or group of securities
• Significant rise in losses from surety or director and officer policies written for financial institutions or other insured entities
• Our inability to manage Cincinnati Global or other subsidiaries to produce related business opportunities and growth prospects for our ongoing operations
• Recession, prolonged elevated inflation or other economic conditions resulting in lower demand for insurance products or increased payment delinquencies
• Ineffective information technology systems or discontinuing to develop and implement improvements in technology may impact our success and profitability
• Difficulties with technology or data security breaches, including cyberattacks, that could negatively affect our or our agents' ability to conduct business; disrupt our relationships with agents, policyholders and others; cause reputational damage, mitigation expenses and data loss and expose us to liability under federal and state laws
• Difficulties with our operations and technology that may negatively impact our ability to conduct business, including cloud-based data information storage, data security, cyberattacks, remote working capabilities, and/or outsourcing relationships and third-party operations and data security
• Disruption of the insurance market caused by technology innovations such as driverless cars that could decrease consumer demand for insurance products
• Delays, inadequate data developed internally or from third parties, or performance inadequacies from ongoing development and implementation of underwriting and pricing methods, including telematics and other usage-based insurance methods, or technology projects and enhancements expected to increase our pricing accuracy, underwriting profit and competitiveness
• Intense competition, and the impact of innovation, technological change and changing customer preferences on the insurance industry and the markets in which we operate, could harm our ability to maintain or increase our business volumes and profitability
• Changing consumer insurance-buying habits and consolidation of independent insurance agencies could alter our competitive advantages
• Inability to obtain adequate ceded reinsurance on acceptable terms, amount of reinsurance coverage purchased, financial strength of reinsurers and the potential for nonpayment or delay in payment by reinsurers
• Inability to defer policy acquisition costs for any business segment if pricing and loss trends would lead management to conclude that segment could not achieve sustainable profitability
• Inability of our subsidiaries to pay dividends consistent with current or past levels
• Events or conditions that could weaken or harm our relationships with our independent agencies and hamper opportunities to add new agencies, resulting in limitations on our opportunities for growth, such as:
• Downgrades of our financial strength ratings
• Concerns that doing business with us is too difficult
• Perceptions that our level of service, particularly claims service, is no longer a distinguishing characteristic in the marketplace
• Inability or unwillingness to nimbly develop and introduce coverage product updates and innovations that our competitors offer and consumers expect to find in the marketplace
• Actions of insurance departments, state attorneys general or other regulatory agencies, including a change to a federal system of regulation from a state-based system, that:
• Impose new obligations on us that increase our expenses or change the assumptions underlying our critical accounting estimates
• Place the insurance industry under greater regulatory scrutiny or result in new statutes, rules and regulations
• Restrict our ability to exit or reduce writings of unprofitable coverages or lines of business
• Add assessments for guaranty funds, other insurance–related assessments or mandatory reinsurance arrangements; or that impair our ability to recover such assessments through future surcharges or other rate changes
• Increase our provision for federal income taxes due to changes in tax law
• Increase our other expenses
• Limit our ability to set fair, adequate and reasonable rates
• Place us at a disadvantage in the marketplace
• Restrict our ability to execute our business model, including the way we compensate agents
• Adverse outcomes from litigation or administrative proceedings, including effects of social inflation on the size of litigation awards
• Events or actions, including unauthorized intentional circumvention of controls, that reduce our future ability to maintain effective internal control over financial reporting under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002
• Unforeseen departure of certain executive officers or other key employees due to retirement, health or other causes that could interrupt progress toward important strategic goals or diminish the effectiveness of certain longstanding relationships with insurance agents and others
• Our inability, or the inability of our independent agents, to attract and retain personnel in a competitive labor market, impacting the customer experience and altering our competitive advantages
• Events, such as an epidemic, natural catastrophe or terrorism, that could hamper our ability to assemble our workforce at our headquarters location or work effectively in a remote environment

Further, our insurance businesses are subject to the effects of changing social, global, economic and regulatory environments. Public and regulatory initiatives have included efforts to adversely influence and restrict premium rates, restrict the ability to cancel policies, impose underwriting standards and expand overall regulation. We also are subject to public and regulatory initiatives that can affect the market value for our common stock, such as measures affecting corporate financial reporting and governance. The ultimate changes and eventual effects, if any, of these initiatives are uncertain.

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SOURCE Cincinnati Financial Corporation

FAQ

What are the estimated catastrophe losses for Cincinnati Financial in Q1 2023?

Cincinnati Financial estimates catastrophe losses of approximately $235 million for the first quarter of 2023.

How will the catastrophe losses affect the combined ratio for Cincinnati Financial?

The catastrophe losses are expected to increase the combined ratio by around 12.8 percentage points.

When will Cincinnati Financial report its final Q1 2023 results?

Cincinnati Financial plans to report its final results on April 27, 2023, after market close.

What is the projected combined ratio for Cincinnati Financial in Q1 2023?

The projected combined ratio for Q1 2023 is estimated to be between 99% and 103%.

What segments are impacted by the catastrophe losses at Cincinnati Financial?

The estimated losses include approximately $110 million from the commercial lines and $115 million from personal lines.