Citizens Business Conditions Index™ Holds Steady in Q1

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04/29/2025 - 09:01 AM

Index remains expansionary, though signs point to cooling momentum

PROVIDENCE, R.I.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- The national Citizens Business Conditions Index™ (CBCI) held steady at 50.9 in the first quarter of 2025. The reading is generally consistent with the 4Q24 level of 51.0, suggesting that business conditions remained positive to start the year despite growing macroeconomic uncertainty throughout the period.

Solid corporate revenue trends were the main driver of the positive momentum. Citizens’ proprietary data showed continued revenue growth across most industries and geographies, with the Energy and Utilities sectors standing out as notable exceptions.

“Business leaders entered 2025 optimistic about the year ahead,” said Eric Merlis, managing director and co-head of global markets, Citizens. “That initial optimism helped buoy the economy in the first quarter, but the forward outlook from here is more uncertain.”

Macroeconomic factors were generally neutral to the index on a national level, but signs pointed to slowing momentum as the quarter wore on.

New business applications had a neutral impact, suggesting some cautiousness.
National employment data, as measured by initial jobless claims, was also neutral. However, some states, such as Delaware, experienced outsized impacts from federal government restructuring.
Similarly, the ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services indexes were both expansionary for the quarter, but sentiment cooled noticeably in March as macroeconomic uncertainty grew.

Overall, the first quarter CBCI reveals a resilient business environment that is starting to feel the impacts of softening business and consumer sentiment as macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty persist. While the ultimate outcome remains to be seen, the second quarter index is likely to more fully reflect the economic impacts of evolving federal policies, including ongoing tariff negotiations.

“Overall, our clients continued to perform well in the first quarter despite elevated market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty,” added Merlis. “As the operating environment evolves, we are working closely with them to provide thoughtful advice and help them to navigate through challenges.”

Citizens is a trusted strategic and financial adviser, consistently delivering clear and objective advice. The Citizens approach puts clients first by offering great ideas combined with thorough market knowledge and excellent execution, to help our clients enhance their business and reach their potential. For more information, please visit the Citizens website.

About Citizens Financial Group, Inc.
Citizens Financial Group, Inc. is one of the nation’s oldest and largest financial institutions, with $220.1 billion in assets as of March 31, 2025. Headquartered in Providence, Rhode Island, Citizens offers a broad range of retail and commercial banking products and services to individuals, small businesses, middle-market companies, large corporations and institutions. Citizens helps its customers reach their potential by listening to them and by understanding their needs in order to offer tailored advice, ideas and solutions. In Consumer Banking, Citizens provides an integrated experience that includes mobile and online banking, a full-service customer contact center and the convenience of approximately 3,100 ATMs and approximately 1,000 branches in 14 states and the District of Columbia. Consumer Banking products and services include a full range of banking, lending, savings, wealth management and small business offerings. In Commercial Banking, Citizens offers a broad complement of financial products and solutions, including lending and leasing, deposit and treasury management services, foreign exchange, interest rate and commodity risk management solutions, as well as loan syndication, corporate finance, merger and acquisition, and debt and equity capital markets capabilities. More information is available at www.citizensbank.com or visit us on X (formerly Twitter), LinkedIn or Facebook.