3Q20 Citizens Business Conditions Index™ Signals Steady Economic Improvement
The Citizens Business Conditions Index™ increased to 61.2 in Q3 2020, indicating economic recovery amid the pandemic, up from 60.3 in Q2. Manufacturing sectors showed strong performance, while employment rose but wage growth declined due to job gains in lower-wage positions. The index reflects business activity across more than 7,000 clients, which showed mixed results among sectors. Ongoing COVID-19 challenges may persist, despite resilience from businesses bolstered by governmental support.
- Citizens Business Conditions Index™ rose to 61.2, indicating economic expansion.
- Strong performance noted in the manufacturing sector.
- Employment increased during the third quarter.
- Wage growth decreased despite rising employment.
- Some sectors continue to perform poorly.
PROVIDENCE, R.I.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Economic conditions showed definite signs of improvement during the third quarter of 2020, the first gain during a year dominated by impacts of the pandemic. The Citizens Business Conditions Index™ rose to 61.2 at the end of the third quarter, up from 60.3 at the end of the second quarter, with some sectors, such as manufacturing, faring better than others as the U.S. economy started to get back on track.
Citizens’ proprietary measure of business activity among clients showed particular strength in the industrial and government services sectors. The fourth quarter may pose continued challenges for some sectors, however, as the number of COVID-19 cases rises in many states.
“It’s obvious to everyone that life is not back to ‘normal’ in the United States with the ongoing battle to contain COVID-19. Still, businesses are proving to be incredibly resilient,” said Tony Bedikian, head of global markets at Citizens. “The support from the Fed has been a huge factor. The capital markets are operating well and we are seeing a lot of effective adjustments made by small and medium-sized companies as the government weighs possible additional stimulus.”
The Index is derived from a number of underlying components, most of which improved during the third quarter.
- The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indexes were up for the quarter. Manufacturing rose more sharply while the broader services sector recovery held steady.
- Employment increased during the third quarter, but wage growth decreased, impacted by the growing rate of job gains in the lower-wage workforce.
- Proprietary measures of business activity among Citizens’ more than 7,000 clients across the United States were down slightly with a few sectors improving and others still languishing.
The Index draws from public information and proprietary corporate data to establish a unique view of business conditions across the country. An index value greater than 50 indicates expansion and points to positive business activity for the next quarter.
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