Visa Analysis: U.S. Rings in Holiday Retail Spending Growth

Rhea-AI Summary

Visa reports a 4.8% year-over-year increase in overall U.S. holiday retail spending for 2023, according to its first Retail Spend Monitor. In-store spending accounted for 77% of total payment volume, growing 4.1% compared to 1.6% last year, while online retail grew 7.1% versus 10.3% in 2022.

Key sector performances include: electronics (+4.2%), clothing and accessories (+5.0%), and building materials (+4.7%). Globally, Brazil (+12.2%), South Africa (+7.0%), UK (+2.3%), and Australia (+7.4%) all showed positive growth. The report covers the seven-week period from November 1 and includes data from Visa's payment network combined with survey-based estimates for other payment forms.

Positive

• Overall holiday retail spending increased 4.8% YoY
• Strong in-store spending growth of 4.1% vs 1.6% last year
• Online retail growth of 7.1%
• Positive growth across all major retail sectors
• Strong international market performance, particularly in Brazil (12.2%) and South Africa (7.0%)

Negative

• Online retail growth decelerated from 10.3% last year to 7.1%
• Increased fraud attempts during Black Friday and Cyber Monday

Insights

Financial Analyst

The 4.8% year-over-year increase in holiday retail spending, while positive, needs to be viewed through the lens of inflation. With 2023's inflation rate around 3%, the real spending growth is modest at approximately 1.8%. The shift in spending patterns - 77% in-store vs. 23% online - reveals a strong return to brick-and-mortar retail, though online's 7.1% growth suggests continued digital transformation.

The sectoral performance is particularly telling. Building materials' 4.7% growth reversal from last year's decline indicates a robust home improvement market, while electronics' 4.2% growth and clothing's 5.0% increase suggest healthy discretionary spending. The international performance, especially Brazil's 12.2% and Australia's 7.4% growth, positions Visa favorably in emerging markets.

For Visa, these trends translate to increased transaction volume and revenue potential. The doubling of blocked fraud attempts during peak shopping days demonstrates the value of Visa's security infrastructure, likely leading to increased merchant trust and potentially higher processing fees.

Market Research Analyst

The spending data reveals important consumer behavior shifts that could reshape retail strategies. The strong in-store performance contradicts the narrative of retail apocalypse, suggesting retailers need a robust omnichannel presence. The 7.1% online growth, while slower than last year's 10.3%, indicates market maturation rather than decline.

Category-specific trends are particularly insightful. The acceleration in clothing sales from 2.4% to 5.0% suggests a post-pandemic return to social activities and office work. The building materials rebound to 4.7% growth from -3.9% indicates continued investment in home improvement, possibly driven by high housing costs keeping people in existing homes longer.

Visa's fraud prevention metrics demonstrate the growing sophistication of payment security, a critical factor for maintaining consumer confidence in digital payments. The expansion of VCA consulting engagements, nearly doubling year-over-year with $5 billion in client revenue impact, positions Visa as more than just a payment processor.

SAN FRANCISCO--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Visa, a global leader in digital payments, today announced its first Retail Spend Monitor from Visa Consulting & Analytics (VCA). This year, Visa’s preliminary insights indicate that the overall holiday retail spend in the U.S. increased 4.8% year over year. This is across all forms of payment, including cash and check and is not adjusted for inflation.

"This holiday shopping season, we’re seeing increasing consumer confidence as people sought out in-store experiences – and went online – to purchase gifts and celebrate the holidays with friends and family,” said Wayne Best, chief economist at Visa. “This spending growth demonstrates the adaptability of both consumers and retailers and the overall strength of the economy.”

Unwrapping the highlights:

• Consumers headed back to stores: Out of total holiday retail spend in the U.S., 77% of total payment volume was in store versus 23% online, showing the in-store experience remains important for the consumer. Total retail spend in stores grew at a rate of 4.1% (versus 1.6% last year).
• Online retail shopping continues to grow: Online retail shopping increased by 7.1% (versus 10.3% last year), showing consumers continue to rely on its convenience and ease during the holiday season.
• Consistent electronics sales growth: The electronics sector growth rate increased to 4.2% versus 2.8% last year.
• Clothing and accessories are in season: This holiday season saw a 5.0% rise in sales (versus 2.4% last year) for clothing and accessories.
• Making homes cozier for the holidays: Building materials sales increased by 4.7% (versus a negative 3.9% last year), indicating consumers turned their attention to their homes this year.
• A global spending season: Across the globe, holiday shoppers demonstrated positive activity. Brazil saw a 12.2% year over year increase, while South Africa experienced a 7.0% growth in spending. Both regions enjoyed double-digit growth across all five merchant categories. The U.K. joined the trend with a 2.3% rise, and Australia saw a 7.4% increase in overall spend.
• Fraudsters are doubling down: Earlier this month, Visa reported that it blocked nearly double the amount of suspected fraud in 2024 versus 2023 during Black Friday and Cyber Monday weekend.

The VCA Retail Spend Monitor reflects the total retail sales activity for the seven-week period starting on November 1 and uses a subset of Visa payments network data in the U.S.¹ coupled with survey-based estimates for other forms of payment.

The VCA Retail Spend Monitor is produced by Visa Consulting & Analytics, a global network of more than 1,500 consultants, economists, data scientists, and product designers working across 75 countries. In the last year, VCA delivered more than 3,000 consulting engagements, nearly double from the year prior, that helped clients realize an estimated $5 billion in incremental revenue as a result.

“With Visa Consulting & Analytics expertise and the power of VisaNet’s data –– representing 234 billion transactions a year, 639 million transactions every day –– our clients make informed business decisions that power their growth,” said Kate Manfred, North America head of advisory services at Visa. “Comprehensive analysis like the Retail Spend Monitor provides insights into consumer spending behaviors and trends that aid retailers in strategic planning and market positioning.”

To learn more about how Visa Consulting & Analytics can help clients turn data and insights into actionable business decisions, visit here.

About Visa

Visa (NYSE: V) is a world leader in digital payments, facilitating transactions between consumers, merchants, financial institutions and government entities across more than 200 countries and territories. Our mission is to connect the world through the most innovative, convenient, reliable and secure payments network, enabling individuals, businesses and economies to thrive. We believe that economies that include everyone everywhere, uplift everyone everywhere and see access as foundational to the future of money movement. Learn more at Visa.com.

The views, opinions, and/or estimates, as the case may be (“views”), expressed herein are those of the Visa Consulting & Analytics team and do not necessarily reflect those of Visa executive management or other Visa employees and affiliates. This content is intended for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for operational, marketing, legal, technical, tax, financial or other advice and do not in any way reflect actual or forecasted Visa operational or financial performance. Visa neither makes any warranty or representation as to the completeness or accuracy of the views contained herein, nor assumes any liability or responsibility that may result from reliance on such views. These views are often based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.

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¹ The analysis is based on a subset of U.S. Visa payments network data at retail merchants but excludes auto, gasoline, restaurants and other categories.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241223673631/en/

Stephanie Barnes

press@visa.com

628.278.9327

Source: Visa Inc.

FAQ

What was Visa's (V) U.S. holiday retail spending growth in 2023?

Visa reported a 4.8% year-over-year increase in overall U.S. holiday retail spending for 2023.

How did in-store vs online spending compare for Visa (V) during the 2023 holiday season?

In-store spending represented 77% of total payment volume with 4.1% growth, while online spending was 23% with 7.1% growth.

Which retail sectors showed the strongest growth for Visa (V) during holiday 2023?

Clothing and accessories showed the strongest growth at 5.0%, followed by building materials at 4.7%, and electronics at 4.2%.

How did Visa's (V) international markets perform during the 2023 holiday season?

International markets showed strong performance with Brazil growing 12.2%, South Africa 7.0%, Australia 7.4%, and the UK 2.3%.

What period does Visa's (V) 2023 Retail Spend Monitor cover?

The Retail Spend Monitor covers the seven-week period starting from November 1, 2023.