TrueCar Releases Analysis of November Industry Sales

Rhea-AI Summary

TrueCar anticipates new vehicle sales in November 2022 to reach 1,136,329 units, marking a 7% year-over-year increase. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for light vehicle sales is estimated at 14 million, up 9% from last year. Retail deliveries, excluding fleet sales, are projected at 954,799 units, down 3% from October. Fleet sales are forecasted to surge 68% year-over-year. Affordability issues plague consumers, leading OEMs to redirect new supplies to fleet sales.

Positive

• Total industry sales projected to rise 7% year-over-year.
• Fleet sales forecasted to increase 68% year-over-year and 21% month-over-month.
• Estimated SAAR of 14 million units reflects a 9% increase from November 2021.

Negative

• Retail deliveries expected to decline 3% from October.
• High consumer affordability issues are hindering sales.
• Overall new vehicle sales are even compared to a year ago.

OEMs' first response to increasing inventories is to pull the fleet lever

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Nov. 30, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,136,329 units in November 2022, up 7% from a year ago and about on par with October 2022, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 14 million, up 9% from November 2021. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 954,799 units, about even from a year ago and down about 3% from October 2022.

"Inventories are on pace for a fourth consecutive month of double-digit increases. Consumers, however, continue to face affordability challenges and high monthly payments, keeping many on the sidelines," said Zack Krelle, Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "To maintain sales momentum, manufacturers appear to be shifting some of the new supply to non-retail sales." 

November fleet sales are up 68% year-over-year, and up 21% over October.

"A TrueCar survey showed that 77% of shoppers are brand agnostic, open to finding whichever make meets their needs. Because incentives and price reductions have not yet materialized, there's a larger potential for brand conquesting," said Justin Colon, Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar. "There is potential for a growth-minded OEM to lean into this opportunity."

Additional November Industry Insights (from TrueCar):

• Total sales for November 2022 are expected to be up 7% from a year ago and about even with October 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Fleet sales for November 2022 are expected to be up 68% from a year ago and up 21% from October 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Average transaction price for new vehicles is projected to be up 3% from a year ago and down 1% from October 2022.
• Total SAAR is expected to be up 9% from a year ago at 14 million units.
• Used vehicle sales for November 2022 are expected to reach almost 3 million, down 13% from a year ago and even with October 2022. 
• The average interest rate on new vehicles is 6.6% compared to October 2022 at 6.3% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 9.8%.
• The average loan term on a new vehicle for November 2022 is about 70 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is about 71 months.

Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Nov 2022 Forecast	Nov 2021 Actual	Oct 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	30,798	30,441	33,398	1.2 %	-2.9 %	-7.8 %	-4.1 %
Daimler	26,483	25,101	29,425	5.5 %	1.3 %	-10.0 %	-6.4 %
Ford	149,857	157,417	156,917	-4.8 %	-8.6 %	-4.5 %	-0.7 %
GM	199,521	139,618	201,296	42.9 %	37.2 %	-0.9 %	3.1 %
Honda	82,410	85,055	81,545	-3.1 %	-7.0 %	1.1 %	5.1 %
Hyundai	62,626	49,347	64,957	26.9 %	21.8 %	-3.6 %	0.3 %
Kia	56,595	45,318	58,276	24.9 %	19.9 %	-2.9 %	1.0 %
Nissan	64,595	57,625	66,678	12.1 %	7.6 %	-3.1 %	0.8 %
Stellantis	110,357	125,415	111,941	-12.0 %	-15.5 %	-1.4 %	2.5 %
Subaru	46,700	33,045	48,568	41.3 %	35.7 %	-3.8 %	0.0 %
Tesla	41,537	33,980	43,198	22.2 %	17.3 %	-3.8 %	0.0 %
Toyota	173,583	154,139	187,367	12.6 %	8.1 %	-7.4 %	-3.7 %
Volkswagen Group	44,998	41,642	48,506	8.1 %	3.7 %	-7.2 %	-3.5 %
Industry	1,136,329	1,021,610	1,181,176	11.2 %	6.8 %	-3.8 %	0.1 %

 

Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Nov 2022 Forecast	Nov 2021 Actual	Oct 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	28,948	28,811	30,719	0.5 %	-3.5 %	-5.8 %	-2.0 %
Daimler	24,336	22,899	27,379	6.3 %	2.0 %	-11.1 %	-7.6 %
Ford	106,765	122,181	117,377	-12.6 %	-16.1 %	-9.0 %	-5.4 %
GM	148,007	125,465	166,418	18.0 %	13.2 %	-11.1 %	-7.5 %
Honda	80,327	84,618	79,266	-5.1 %	-8.9 %	1.3 %	5.4 %
Hyundai	61,057	48,706	64,207	25.4 %	20.3 %	-4.9 %	-1.1 %
Kia	54,632	42,539	56,318	28.4 %	23.3 %	-3.0 %	0.9 %
Nissan	56,932	51,233	54,410	11.1 %	6.7 %	4.6 %	8.8 %
Stellantis	76,486	100,611	89,438	-24.0 %	-27.0 %	-14.5 %	-11.1 %
Subaru	45,699	32,378	47,294	41.1 %	35.5 %	-3.4 %	0.5 %
Tesla	35,023	33,656	36,193	4.1 %	-0.1 %	-3.2 %	0.6 %
Toyota	155,752	144,204	167,783	8.0 %	3.7 %	-7.2 %	-3.5 %
Volkswagen Group	40,363	40,941	44,314	-1.4 %	-5.4 %	-8.9 %	-5.3 %
Industry	954,799	919,212	1,025,020	3.9 %	-0.3 %	-6.9 %	-3.1 %

 

Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Nov 2022 Forecast	Nov 2021 Actual	Oct 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	1,850	1,630	2,679	13.5 %	8.9 %	-31.0 %	-28.2 %
Daimler	2,147	2,202	2,046	-2.5 %	-6.4 %	4.9 %	9.1 %
Ford	43,092	35,236	39,540	22.3 %	17.4 %	9.0 %	13.3 %
GM	51,514	14,153	34,878	264.0 %	249.4 %	47.7 %	53.6 %
Honda	2,083	437	2,279	377.1 %	358.0 %	-8.6 %	-4.9 %
Hyundai	1,569	641	750	144.7 %	134.9 %	109.2 %	117.6 %
Kia	1,963	2,779	1,958	-29.4 %	-32.2 %	0.2 %	4.3 %
Nissan	7,663	6,392	12,268	19.9 %	15.1 %	-37.5 %	-35.0 %
Stellantis	33,871	24,804	22,503	36.6 %	31.1 %	50.5 %	56.5 %
Subaru	1,001	667	1,274	50.1 %	44.1 %	-21.4 %	-18.3 %
Tesla	6,514	324	7,005	1910.2 %	1829.8 %	-7.0 %	-3.3 %
Toyota	17,831	9,935	19,584	79.5 %	72.3 %	-9.0 %	-5.3 %
Volkswagen Group	4,635	701	4,192	560.7 %	534.3 %	10.6 %	15.0 %
Industry	178,597	102,200	153,223	74.8 %	67.8 %	16.6 %	21.2 %

 

Fleet Penetration
Manufacturer	Nov 2022 Forecast	Nov 2021 Actual	Oct 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	MoM % Change
BMW	6.0 %	5.4 %	8.0 %	12.2 %	-25.1 %
Daimler	8.1 %	8.8 %	7.0 %	-7.6 %	16.6 %
Ford	28.8 %	22.4 %	25.2 %	28.5 %	14.1 %
GM	25.8 %	10.1 %	17.3 %	154.7 %	49.0 %
Honda	2.5 %	0.5 %	2.8 %	392.4 %	-9.6 %
Hyundai	2.5 %	1.3 %	1.2 %	92.8 %	117.0 %
Kia	3.5 %	6.1 %	3.4 %	-43.4 %	3.2 %
Nissan	11.9 %	11.1 %	18.4 %	7.0 %	-35.5 %
Stellantis	30.7 %	19.8 %	20.1 %	55.2 %	52.7 %
Subaru	2.1 %	2.0 %	2.6 %	6.2 %	-18.3 %
Tesla	15.7 %	1.0 %	16.2 %	1544.5 %	-3.3 %
Toyota	10.3 %	6.4 %	10.5 %	59.4 %	-1.7 %
Volkswagen Group	10.3 %	1.7 %	8.6 %	511.4 %	19.2 %
Industry	15.7 %	10.0 %	13.0 %	57.1 %	21.2 %

 

Total Market Share
Manufacturer	Nov 2022 Forecast	Nov 2021 Actual	Oct 2022 Actual
BMW	2.7 %	3.0 %	2.8 %
Daimler	2.3 %	2.5 %	2.5 %
Ford	13.2 %	15.4 %	13.3 %
GM	17.6 %	13.7 %	17.0 %
Honda	7.3 %	8.3 %	6.9 %
Hyundai	5.5 %	4.8 %	5.5 %
Kia	5.0 %	4.4 %	4.9 %
Nissan	5.7 %	5.6 %	5.6 %
Stellantis	9.7 %	12.3 %	9.5 %
Subaru	4.1 %	3.2 %	4.1 %
Tesla	3.7 %	3.3 %	3.7 %
Toyota	15.3 %	15.1 %	15.9 %
Volkswagen Group	4.0 %	4.1 %	4.1 %
	95.9 %	95.7 %	95.8 %

 

Retail Market Share
Manufacturer	Nov 2022 Forecast	Nov 2021 Actual	Oct 2022 Actual
BMW	3.0 %	3.1 %	3.0 %
Daimler	2.5 %	2.5 %	2.7 %
Ford	11.2 %	13.3 %	11.5 %
GM	15.5 %	13.6 %	16.2 %
Honda	8.4 %	9.2 %	7.7 %
Hyundai	6.4 %	5.3 %	6.3 %
Kia	5.7 %	4.6 %	5.5 %
Nissan	6.0 %	5.6 %	5.3 %
Stellantis	8.0 %	10.9 %	8.7 %
Subaru	4.8 %	3.5 %	4.6 %
Tesla	3.7 %	3.7 %	3.5 %
Toyota	16.3 %	15.7 %	16.4 %
Volkswagen Group	4.2 %	4.5 %	4.3 %
	95.8 %	95.5 %	95.7 %

 

ATP
Manufacturer	Nov 2022 Forecast	Nov 2021 Actual	Oct 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$68,658	$61,769	$70,318	11.2 %	-2.4 %
Daimler	$73,959	$67,617	$71,784	9.4 %	3.0 %
Ford	$54,233	$48,709	$52,756	11.3 %	2.8 %
GM	$53,079	$54,388	$52,043	-2.4 %	2.0 %
Honda	$37,101	$35,176	$37,913	5.5 %	-2.1 %
Hyundai	$36,706	$35,814	$37,143	2.5 %	-1.2 %
Kia	$34,252	$33,620	$34,383	1.9 %	-0.4 %
Nissan	$36,964	$34,290	$37,094	7.8 %	-0.4 %
Stellantis	$55,408	$52,665	$54,693	5.2 %	1.3 %
Subaru	$35,392	$34,767	$34,855	1.8 %	1.5 %
Toyota	$41,297	$40,227	$39,908	2.7 %	3.5 %
Volkswagen Group	$47,418	$44,754	$45,682	6.0 %	3.8 %
Industry	$45,290	$44,074	$44,769	2.8 %	1.2 %
	$1,216		$521

 

Incentives
Manufacturer	Nov 2022 Forecast	Nov 2021 Actual	Oct 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$1,305	$2,786	$1,366	-53.2 %	-4.4 %
Daimler	$1,209	$2,427	$1,286	-50.2 %	-6.0 %
Ford	$965	$2,462	$1,020	-60.8 %	-5.4 %
GM	$1,334	$1,829	$1,377	-27.1 %	-3.2 %
Honda	$1,028	$1,599	$1,050	-35.7 %	-2.1 %
Hyundai	$1,056	$1,209	$855	-12.6 %	23.5 %
Kia	$552	$1,652	$423	-66.6 %	30.6 %
Nissan	$1,349	$1,995	$1,437	-32.4 %	-6.2 %
Stellantis	$1,604	$2,465	$1,333	-34.9 %	20.4 %
Subaru	$638	$1,058	$671	-39.7 %	-4.9 %
Toyota	$720	$1,257	$754	-42.7 %	-4.5 %
Volkswagen Group	$1,650	$2,089	$1,506	-21.0 %	9.6 %
Industry	$1,072	$1,903	$1,060	-43.7 %	1.1 %
	-$831		$12

 

Incentives as % of ATP
Manufacturer	Nov 2022 Forecast	Nov 2021 Actual	Oct 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	1.9 %	4.5 %	1.9 %	-57.9 %	-2.1 %
Daimler	1.6 %	3.6 %	1.8 %	-54.5 %	-8.8 %
Ford	1.8 %	5.1 %	1.9 %	-64.8 %	-8.0 %
GM	2.5 %	3.4 %	2.6 %	-25.3 %	-5.1 %
Honda	2.8 %	4.5 %	2.8 %	-39.1 %	0.1 %
Hyundai	2.9 %	3.4 %	2.3 %	-14.8 %	25.0 %
Kia	1.6 %	4.9 %	1.2 %	-67.2 %	31.1 %
Nissan	3.6 %	5.8 %	3.9 %	-37.3 %	-5.8 %
Stellantis	2.9 %	4.7 %	2.4 %	-38.1 %	18.8 %
Subaru	1.8 %	3.0 %	1.9 %	-40.7 %	-6.3 %
Toyota	1.7 %	3.1 %	1.9 %	-44.2 %	-7.7 %
Volkswagen Group	3.5 %	4.7 %	3.3 %	-25.4 %	5.6 %
Industry	2.4 %	4.3 %	2.4 %	-45.2 %	0.0 %

 

Revenue
Manufacturer	Nov 2022 Forecast	Nov 2021 Actual	Oct 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
Industry	$51,464,397,411	$45,026,320,944	$52,880,515,204	14.3 %	-2.7 %

(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.) 

About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that lets auto buyers and sellers connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. With access to an expansive inventory provided by our Certified Dealers, we are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto shopping experience as we seek to bring more of the process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new, used and Certified Pre-Owned vehicles. When they are ready, shoppers in TrueCar's marketplace can connect with a Certified Dealer in our network, who shares our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great auto shopping experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter. 

 

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SOURCE TrueCar.com

FAQ

What are the new vehicle sales expectations for TrueCar in November 2022?

TrueCar expects new vehicle sales to reach 1,136,329 units in November 2022.

How much are fleet sales expected to increase in November 2022?

Fleet sales are projected to increase by 68% year-over-year in November 2022.

What is the estimated SAAR for light vehicle sales in November 2022?

The estimated SAAR for light vehicle sales is 14 million units for November 2022.

Are retail deliveries of new vehicles expected to rise or fall in November 2022?

Retail deliveries are expected to decline by 3% from October 2022.

What challenges are consumers facing in the current vehicle market according to TrueCar?

Consumers are facing affordability challenges and high monthly payments.