TrueCar Releases Analysis of March and 2022 First Quarter Industry Sales

Rhea-AI Summary

TrueCar expects March 2022 new vehicle sales to reach 1,246,993 units, representing a 25% decline from last year but a 5% increase from February 2022. The estimated SAAR is 13.6 million units, down 23% YOY. Retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks are forecasted at 1,084,168 units, down 24% YOY, yet up 2% from February. TrueCar reported a 380% YOY increase in electric vehicle and a 180% increase for hybrids due to rising fuel prices.

Positive

• 380% increase in electric vehicle prospects year-over-year.
• 180% increase in hybrid vehicle prospects year-over-year.
• Mild fleet recovery anticipated as summer approaches.

Negative

• Total new vehicle sales expected to decline by 25% from last year.
• Retail deliveries of new vehicles forecasted to drop by 24% year-over-year.
• Incentive spending down by 54% from last year.

EV and hybrid vehicle demand skyrockets amid surging fuel prices

SANTA MONICA, Calif., March 30, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,246,993 units in March 2022, down 25% from a year ago and up 5% from February 2022, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 13.6 million, down 23% from March 2021. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,084,168 units, down 24% from a year ago and up 2% from February 2022.

"Over the last month we've seen a huge spike in electric vehicle and hybrid prospects on the TrueCar site, with a 380% increase year-over-year for EVs and a 180% jump year-over-year for hybrids," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "This is the largest monthly jump we've ever seen and understandably so with current fuel prices."

"This month in spite of low inventory, we're seeing mild fleet recovery as we head into the summer season," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar.

Additional Industry Insights (from TrueCar):

• Total sales for March 2022 are expected to be down 25% from a year ago and up 5% from February 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Fleet sales for March 2022 are expected to be down 30% from a year ago and up 31% from February 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Incentive spend is down 54% from last year.
• Average transaction price is projected to be up 15% from a year ago and down 1% from February 2022.
• Total SAAR is expected to be down 23% from a year ago at 13.6 million units.
• Used vehicle sales for March 2022 are expected to reach 3.6 million, down 13% from a year ago and up 11% from February 2022. 
• The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.6% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 8%.
• The average loan term on a new vehicle for March 2022 is 70 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is about 71 months.
• Quarterly average transaction price is projected to be up 16% from a year ago and up 3.5% from Q4 2021.
• Quarterly incentive spend is down 51% from Q1 2021.

Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Mar 2022 Forecast	Mar 2021 Actual	Feb 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	24,275	31,888	26,074	-23.9%	-26.7%	-6.9%	-17.2%
Daimler	20,384	24,651	19,237	-17.3%	-20.4%	6.0%	-5.8%
Ford	154,405	213,300	128,229	-27.6%	-30.3%	20.4%	7.0%
GM	205,018	245,606	161,705	-16.5%	-19.6%	26.8%	12.7%
Honda	103,045	148,538	84,394	-30.6%	-33.2%	22.1%	8.5%
Hyundai	69,504	78,409	55,906	-11.4%	-14.6%	24.3%	10.5%
Kia	62,609	66,523	49,182	-5.9%	-9.4%	27.3%	13.2%
Nissan	75,308	128,334	61,674	-41.3%	-43.5%	22.1%	8.5%
Stellantis	153,375	183,333	136,580	-16.3%	-19.4%	12.3%	-0.2%
Subaru	47,605	65,726	44,866	-27.6%	-30.3%	6.1%	-5.7%
Tesla	44,525	23,050	42,742	93.2%	86.0%	4.2%	-7.4%
Toyota	179,919	256,485	160,645	-29.9%	-32.5%	12.0%	-0.4%
Volkswagen Group	39,159	70,276	36,355	-44.3%	-46.3%	7.7%	-4.3%
Industry	1,246,993	1,604,983	1,057,945	-22.3%	-25.2%	17.9%	4.8%

 

Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Mar 2022 Forecast	Mar 2021 Actual	Feb 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	23,710	30,576	25,623	-22.5%	-25.3%	-7.5%	-17.7%
Daimler	19,338	23,903	18,843	-19.1%	-22.1%	2.6%	-8.8%
Ford	115,884	166,090	104,219	-30.2%	-32.8%	11.2%	-1.2%
GM	157,090	215,813	140,659	-27.2%	-29.9%	11.7%	-0.7%
Honda	102,017	145,541	84,040	-29.9%	-32.5%	21.4%	7.9%
Hyundai	69,399	68,605	55,320	1.2%	-2.6%	25.5%	11.5%
Kia	58,517	55,144	47,352	6.1%	2.2%	23.6%	9.8%
Nissan	66,004	85,771	50,977	-23.0%	-25.9%	29.5%	15.1%
Stellantis	117,910	157,102	114,162	-24.9%	-27.7%	3.3%	-8.2%
Subaru	46,351	63,925	43,193	-27.5%	-30.2%	7.3%	-4.6%
Tesla	44,174	23,050	42,727	91.6%	84.5%	3.4%	-8.1%
Toyota	164,823	226,277	141,838	-27.2%	-29.9%	16.2%	3.3%
Volkswagen Group	38,370	62,461	35,820	-38.6%	-40.8%	7.1%	-4.8%
Industry	1,084,168	1,380,536	947,445	-21.5%	-24.4%	14.4%	1.7%

 

Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Mar 2022 Forecast	Mar 2021 Actual	Feb 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	565	1,312	451	-56.9%	-58.5%	25.4%	11.5%
Daimler	1,046	748	394	39.9%	34.7%	165.8%	136.3%
Ford	38,521	47,210	24,010	-18.4%	-21.4%	60.4%	42.6%
GM	47,928	29,793	21,046	60.9%	54.9%	127.7%	102.4%
Honda	1,028	2,997	354	-65.7%	-67.0%	190.7%	158.4%
Hyundai	105	9,804	586	-98.9%	-99.0%	-82.1%	-84.1%
Kia	4,092	11,379	1,830	-64.0%	-65.4%	123.6%	98.8%
Nissan	9,304	42,563	10,697	-78.1%	-79.0%	-13.0%	-22.7%
Stellantis	35,465	26,231	22,418	35.2%	30.2%	58.2%	40.6%
Subaru	1,254	1,801	1,673	-30.4%	-33.0%	-25.0%	-33.4%
Tesla	351	-	15			2308.7%	2041.0%
Toyota	15,096	30,208	18,807	-50.0%	-51.9%	-19.7%	-28.7%
Volkswagen Group	789	7,815	535	-89.9%	-90.3%	47.4%	31.0%
Industry	162,826	224,447	110,500	-27.5%	-30.1%	47.4%	31.0%

 

Fleet Penetration
Manufacturer	Mar 2022 Forecast	Mar 2021 Actual	Feb 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	MoM % Change
BMW	2.3%	4.1%	1.7%	-43.4%	34.7%
Daimler	5.1%	3.0%	2.0%	69.2%	150.9%
Ford	24.9%	22.1%	18.7%	12.7%	33.2%
GM	23.4%	12.1%	13.0%	92.7%	79.6%
Honda	1.0%	2.0%	0.4%	-50.6%	138.1%
Hyundai	0.2%	12.5%	1.0%	-98.8%	-85.6%
Kia	6.5%	17.1%	3.7%	-61.8%	75.7%
Nissan	12.4%	33.2%	17.3%	-62.7%	-28.8%
Stellantis	23.1%	14.3%	16.4%	61.6%	40.9%
Subaru	2.6%	2.7%	3.7%	-3.9%	-29.3%
Tesla	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%		2212.2%
Toyota	8.4%	11.8%	11.7%	-28.8%	-28.3%
Volkswagen Group	2.0%	11.1%	1.5%	-81.9%	36.8%
Industry	13.1%	14.0%	10.4%	-6.6%	25.0%

 

Total Market Share
Manufacturer	Mar 2022 Forecast	Mar 2021 Actual	Feb 2022 Actual
BMW	1.9%	2.0%	2.5%
Daimler	1.6%	1.5%	1.8%
Ford	12.4%	13.3%	12.1%
GM	16.4%	15.3%	15.3%
Honda	8.3%	9.3%	8.0%
Hyundai	5.6%	4.9%	5.3%
Kia	5.0%	4.1%	4.6%
Nissan	6.0%	8.0%	5.8%
Stellantis	12.3%	11.4%	12.9%
Subaru	3.8%	4.1%	4.2%
Tesla	3.6%	1.4%	4.0%
Toyota	14.4%	16.0%	15.2%
Volkswagen Group	3.1%	4.4%	3.4%
	94.6%	95.7%	95.2%

 

Retail Market Share
Manufacturer	Mar 2022 Forecast	Mar 2021 Actual	Feb 2022 Actual
BMW	2.2%	2.2%	2.7%
Daimler	1.8%	1.7%	2.0%
Ford	10.7%	12.0%	11.0%
GM	14.5%	15.6%	14.8%
Honda	9.4%	10.5%	8.9%
Hyundai	6.4%	5.0%	5.8%
Kia	5.4%	4.0%	5.0%
Nissan	6.1%	6.2%	5.4%
Stellantis	10.9%	11.4%	12.0%
Subaru	4.3%	4.6%	4.6%
Tesla	4.1%	1.7%	4.5%
Toyota	15.2%	16.4%	15.0%
Volkswagen Group	3.5%	4.5%	3.8%
	94.4%	95.9%	95.5%

 

ATP
Manufacturer	Mar 2022 Forecast	Mar 2021 Actual	Feb 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$66,225	$60,360	$62,852	9.7%	5.4%
Daimler	$70,685	$62,111	$73,946	13.8%	-4.4%
Ford	$47,621	$45,155	$48,294	5.5%	-1.4%
GM	$49,878	$43,134	$51,105	15.6%	-2.4%
Honda	$37,585	$31,938	$37,017	17.7%	1.5%
Hyundai	$36,133	$29,739	$36,767	21.5%	-1.7%
Kia	$34,346	$29,387	$33,163	16.9%	3.6%
Nissan	$33,032	$28,741	$32,546	14.9%	1.5%
Stellantis	$53,320	$44,135	$52,515	20.8%	1.5%
Subaru	$34,516	$30,894	$34,334	11.7%	0.5%
Toyota	$40,431	$34,980	$39,992	15.6%	1.1%
Volkswagen Group	$46,153	$43,549	$46,598	6.0%	-1.0%
Industry	$43,462	$37,676	$43,879	15.4%	-1.0%
	$5,786		-$417

 

Incentives
Manufacturer	Mar 2022 Forecast	Mar 2021 Actual	Feb 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$2,237	$4,997	$2,582	-55.2%	-13.3%
Daimler	$2,053	$4,221	$2,243	-51.4%	-8.5%
Ford	$1,687	$3,034	$1,748	-44.4%	-3.5%
GM	$1,888	$4,836	$1,963	-61.0%	-3.8%
Honda	$1,109	$2,382	$1,159	-53.5%	-4.3%
Hyundai	$1,070	$2,541	$950	-57.9%	12.6%
Kia	$1,140	$2,817	$1,239	-59.5%	-8.0%
Nissan	$1,550	$3,331	$1,789	-53.5%	-13.4%
Stellantis	$2,574	$4,640	$2,570	-44.5%	0.1%
Subaru	$837	$1,275	$856	-34.3%	-2.2%
Toyota	$981	$2,774	$1,058	-64.6%	-7.3%
Volkswagen Group	$2,061	$4,001	$1,874	-48.5%	9.9%
Industry	$1,581	$3,424	$1,657	-53.8%	-4.6%
	-$1,843		-$76

 

Incentives as % of ATP
Manufacturer	Mar 2022 Forecast	Mar 2021 Actual	Feb 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	3.4%	8.3%	4.1%	-59.2%	-17.7%
Daimler	2.9%	6.8%	3.0%	-57.3%	-4.2%
Ford	3.5%	6.7%	3.6%	-47.3%	-2.1%
GM	3.8%	11.2%	3.8%	-66.2%	-1.5%
Honda	3.0%	7.5%	3.1%	-60.4%	-5.7%
Hyundai	3.0%	8.5%	2.6%	-65.4%	14.6%
Kia	3.3%	9.6%	3.7%	-65.4%	-11.2%
Nissan	4.7%	11.6%	5.5%	-59.5%	-14.6%
Stellantis	4.8%	10.5%	4.9%	-54.1%	-1.4%
Subaru	2.4%	4.1%	2.5%	-41.2%	-2.7%
Toyota	2.4%	7.9%	2.6%	-69.4%	-8.3%
Volkswagen Group	4.5%	9.2%	4.0%	-51.4%	11.0%
Industry	3.6%	9.1%	3.8%	-60.0%	-3.7%

 

Revenue
Manufacturer	Mar 2022 Forecast	Mar 2021 Actual	Feb 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
Industry	$54,197,050,283	$60,469,364,982	$46,421,894,319	-10.4%	16.7%

Quarterly Tables

Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Q1 2022	Q1 2021	Q4 2021	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	QoQ % Change	QoQ % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	74,304	77,718	100,891	-4.4%	-5.7%	-26.4%	-23.4%
Daimler	60,021	70,236	77,114	-14.5%	-15.7%	-22.2%	-19.1%
Ford	425,079	517,711	504,138	-17.9%	-19.0%	-15.7%	-12.3%
GM	509,297	639,406	436,776	-20.3%	-21.4%	16.6%	21.3%
Honda	261,388	347,091	287,206	-24.7%	-25.7%	-9.0%	-5.3%
Hyundai	176,920	175,352	167,747	0.9%	-0.5%	5.5%	9.7%
Kia	154,279	159,550	145,891	-3.3%	-4.6%	5.7%	10.0%
Nissan	196,724	285,553	195,433	-31.1%	-32.0%	0.7%	4.7%
Stellantis	416,733	471,931	410,857	-11.7%	-12.9%	1.4%	5.5%
Subaru	136,629	160,426	121,008	-14.8%	-16.0%	12.9%	17.4%
Tesla	127,432	69,300	108,370	83.9%	81.4%	17.6%	22.3%
Toyota	499,240	608,670	474,656	-18.0%	-19.1%	5.2%	9.4%
Volkswagen Group	113,249	161,510	133,934	-29.9%	-30.8%	-15.4%	-12.1%
Industry	3,306,944	3,910,569	3,298,307	-15.4%	-16.6%	0.3%	4.3%

 

Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Q1 2022	Q1 2021	Q4 2021	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	QoQ % Change	QoQ % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	72,574	72,722	96,537	-0.2%	-1.5%	-24.8%	-21.8%
Daimler	56,940	67,742	72,398	-15.9%	-17.1%	-21.4%	-18.2%
Ford	319,031	398,553	403,030	-20.0%	-21.0%	-20.8%	-17.7%
GM	390,236	537,787	381,117	-27.4%	-28.4%	2.4%	6.5%
Honda	258,781	342,231	285,047	-24.4%	-25.4%	-9.2%	-5.6%
Hyundai	176,652	160,868	164,726	9.8%	8.3%	7.2%	11.5%
Kia	144,196	135,437	138,541	6.5%	5.0%	4.1%	8.2%
Nissan	172,419	198,754	167,164	-13.2%	-14.4%	3.1%	7.3%
Stellantis	320,372	385,913	345,269	-17.0%	-18.1%	-7.2%	-3.5%
Subaru	133,030	152,878	117,668	-13.0%	-14.1%	13.1%	17.6%
Tesla	126,427	68,866	104,893	83.6%	81.1%	20.5%	25.4%
Toyota	457,351	537,958	440,175	-15.0%	-16.1%	3.9%	8.1%
Volkswagen Group	110,967	144,664	130,333	-23.3%	-24.3%	-14.9%	-11.5%
Industry	2,875,141	3,337,891	2,966,034	-13.9%	-15.0%	-3.1%	0.8%

 

Total Market Share
Manufacturer	Q1 2022	Q1 2021	Q4 2021
BMW	2.2%	2.0%	3.1%
Daimler	1.8%	1.8%	2.3%
Ford	12.9%	13.2%	15.3%
GM	15.4%	16.4%	13.2%
Honda	7.9%	8.9%	8.7%
Hyundai	5.3%	4.5%	5.1%
Kia	4.7%	4.1%	4.4%
Nissan	5.9%	7.3%	5.9%
Stellantis	12.6%	12.1%	12.5%
Subaru	4.1%	4.1%	3.7%
Tesla	3.9%	1.8%	3.3%
Toyota	15.1%	15.6%	14.4%
Volkswagen Group	3.4%	4.1%	4.1%
	95.3%	95.8%	95.9%

 

Retail Market Share
Manufacturer	Q1 2022	Q1 2021	Q4 2021
BMW	2.5%	2.2%	3.3%
Daimler	2.0%	2.0%	2.4%
Ford	11.1%	11.9%	13.6%
GM	13.6%	16.1%	12.8%
Honda	9.0%	10.3%	9.6%
Hyundai	6.1%	4.8%	5.6%
Kia	5.0%	4.1%	4.7%
Nissan	6.0%	6.0%	5.6%
Stellantis	11.1%	11.6%	11.6%
Subaru	4.6%	4.6%	4.0%
Tesla	4.4%	2.1%	3.5%
Toyota	15.9%	16.1%	14.8%
Volkswagen Group	3.9%	4.3%	4.4%
	95.3%	96.0%	96.0%

 

ATP
Manufacturer	Q1 2022	Q1 2021	Q4 2021	YoY % Change		QoQ % Change
BMW	$63,812	$59,439	$60,025	7.4%		6.3%
Daimler	$73,238	$62,877	$66,338	16.5%		10.4%
Ford	$48,236	$44,997	$47,358	7.2%		1.9%
GM	$50,717	$42,982	$51,728	18.0%		-2.0%
Honda	$36,451	$31,144	$33,309	17.0%		9.4%
Hyundai	$36,173	$30,726	$34,533	17.7%		4.7%
Kia	$33,845	$29,355	$30,886	15.3%		9.6%
Nissan	$33,223	$28,886	$33,030	15.0%		0.6%
Stellantis	$52,707	$43,517	$50,204	21.1%		5.0%
Subaru	$34,709	$30,955	$32,720	12.1%		6.1%
Toyota	$40,077	$35,389	$38,452	13.2%		4.2%
Volkswagen Group	$46,358	$42,327	$41,563	9.5%		11.5%
Industry	$43,841	$37,872	$42,366	15.8%		3.5%
	$5,969		$1,475

 

Incentives
Manufacturer	Q1 2022	Q1 2021	Q4 2021	YoY % Change		QoQ % Change
BMW	$2,538	$5,124	$3,010	-50.5%		-15.7%
Daimler	$2,129	$4,060	$2,428	-47.5%		-12.3%
Ford	$1,869	$3,217	$2,377	-41.9%		-21.4%
GM	$1,965	$4,653	$1,916	-57.8%		2.6%
Honda	$1,172	$2,357	$1,515	-50.3%		-22.7%
Hyundai	$1,049	$2,379	$1,176	-55.9%		-10.8%
Kia	$1,373	$2,734	$1,754	-49.8%		-21.8%
Nissan	$1,782	$3,598	$2,010	-50.5%		-11.3%
Stellantis	$2,548	$4,630	$2,377	-45.0%		7.2%
Subaru	$892	$1,302	$1,032	-31.5%		-13.6%
Toyota	$1,060	$2,644	$1,258	-59.9%		-15.8%
Volkswagen Group	$1,964	$3,813	$2,103	-48.5%		-6.6%
Industry	$1,680	$3,428	$1,894	-51.0%		-11.3%
	-$1,748		-$214

(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables auto buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great auto buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. 

 

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SOURCE TrueCar.com

FAQ

What are the expected total new vehicle sales for March 2022?

TrueCar expects total new vehicle sales to reach 1,246,993 units in March 2022.

How much did electric vehicle interest increase in March 2022?

Interest in electric vehicles increased by 380% year-over-year.

What is the anticipated SAAR for light vehicle sales in March 2022?

The estimated SAAR for total light vehicle sales is 13.6 million units, down 23% from March 2021.

How are retail deliveries of new vehicles expected to change in March 2022?

Retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks are expected to be 1,084,168 units, down 24% from the previous year.

What trends did TrueCar observe in vehicle sales for March 2022?

TrueCar noted a 380% increase in EVs and a 180% rise in hybrids amidst rising fuel prices.