TrueCar Releases Analysis of April Industry Sales

Rhea-AI Summary

TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) anticipates total new vehicle sales in April 2022 to drop by 21% year-over-year, totaling 1,247,917 units. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) is estimated at 14.8 million, a 19% decline from April 2021. Retail deliveries of new vehicles are projected at 1,088,345 units, down 20% year-over-year. Incentive spending decreased by 55%, with average transaction prices up 15%. Despite higher fuel costs and rising interest rates, demand persists, evidenced by a 10% increase in interest for the Toyota Prius.

Positive

• Demand for vehicles remains strong despite market conditions.
• Significant year-over-year increase in interest for the Toyota Prius, up 10%.
• Incentive spending decreased by 55%, indicating a more stable pricing environment.

Negative

• Total new vehicle sales expected to fall 21% year-over-year.
• Retail deliveries anticipated to drop by 20% compared to last year.
• Average interest rate on new vehicles increased to 4.8%.

Car sales remain strong despite higher fuel costs

SANTA MONICA, Calif., April 27, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,247,917 units in April 2022, down 21% from a year ago and down 1% from March 2022, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 14.8 million, down 19% from April 2021. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,088,345 units, down 20% from a year ago and down 4% from March 2022.

"Despite higher fuel prices and the Fed increasing interest rates, this month we are seeing car sales maintain a similar pace as March," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "Consumers continue to signal strong demand for vehicles with supply still being the contributing factor to lower sales year-over-year. Individual vehicles such as the Toyota Prius are showing signs of shifting demand for some consumers. In the case of the Prius we are seeing demand up 10% compared to last year in the first three weeks of April."

"Incentives continue their downward trend in April, again notching their lowest levels since at least 2005. We expect Hyundai to have the lowest incentive levels in April of the major brands at just under $600 per unit on average. As might be expected, the three brands with the lowest incentives, Hyundai, Kia and Toyota are also the three brands that show the highest levels of scarcity on TrueCar," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar.

Additional Industry Insights (from TrueCar):

• Total sales for April 2022 are expected to be down 21% from a year ago and down 1% from March 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Fleet sales for April 2022 are expected to be down 24% from a year ago and up 19% from March 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Incentive spend is down 55% from last year.
• Average transaction price is projected to be up 15% from a year ago and down 1% from March 2022.
• Total SAAR is expected to be down 19% from a year ago at 14.8 million units.
• Used vehicle sales for April 2022 are expected to reach 3.4 million, down 15% from a year ago and down 5% from March 2022.
• The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.8% compared to March 2022 at 4.6% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 8%.
• The average loan term on a new vehicle for April 2022 is 70 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is about 71 months.

 

Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Apr 2022 Forecast	Apr 2021 Actual	Mar 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	23,364	32,161	30,561	-27.4%	-30.0%	-23.5%	-23.5%
Daimler	27,943	24,754	28,764	12.9%	8.7%	-2.9%	-2.9%
Ford	183,341	197,063	158,500	-7.0%	-10.4%	15.7%	15.7%
GM	203,149	238,819	204,829	-14.9%	-18.1%	-0.8%	-0.8%
Honda	104,181	156,482	108,075	-33.4%	-35.9%	-3.6%	-3.6%
Hyundai	60,795	80,817	63,983	-24.8%	-27.6%	-5.0%	-5.0%
Kia	65,561	70,177	59,524	-6.6%	-10.0%	10.1%	10.1%
Nissan	77,180	99,132	79,665	-22.1%	-25.0%	-3.1%	-3.1%
Stellantis	145,226	166,012	143,376	-12.5%	-15.8%	1.3%	1.3%
Subaru	39,580	61,389	43,322	-35.5%	-37.9%	-8.6%	-8.6%
Tesla	45,898	16,600	47,953	176.5%	166.3%	-4.3%	-4.3%
Toyota	175,525	238,089	195,271	-26.3%	-29.0%	-10.1%	-10.1%
Volkswagen Group	35,466	71,336	39,262	-50.3%	-52.1%	-9.7%	-9.7%
Industry	1,247,917	1,512,158	1,264,002	-17.5%	-20.5%	-1.3%	-1.3%

 

Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Apr 2022 Forecast	Apr 2021 Actual	Mar 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	22,799	30,842	30,031	-26.1%	-28.8%	-24.1%	-24.1%
Daimler	26,897	24,003	28,176	12.1%	7.9%	-4.5%	-4.5%
Ford	136,299	153,678	128,849	-11.3%	-14.6%	5.8%	5.8%
GM	165,025	210,003	177,840	-21.4%	-24.3%	-7.2%	-7.2%
Honda	103,153	153,287	107,623	-32.7%	-35.2%	-4.2%	-4.2%
Hyundai	60,690	70,734	63,307	-14.2%	-17.4%	-4.1%	-4.1%
Kia	61,469	58,173	57,310	5.7%	1.8%	7.3%	7.3%
Nissan	67,876	66,192	65,764	2.5%	-1.3%	3.2%	3.2%
Stellantis	115,206	143,540	119,112	-19.7%	-22.7%	-3.3%	-3.3%
Subaru	38,326	59,707	41,707	-35.8%	-38.2%	-8.1%	-8.1%
Tesla	45,873	16,600	47,937	176.3%	166.1%	-4.3%	-4.3%
Toyota	156,629	209,321	172,361	-25.2%	-27.9%	-9.1%	-9.1%
Volkswagen Group	34,677	63,278	38,709	-45.2%	-47.2%	-10.4%	-10.4%
Industry	1,088,345	1,309,713	1,130,112	-16.9%	-20.0%	-3.7%	-3.7%

 

Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Apr 2022 Forecast	Apr 2021 Actual	Mar 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	565	1,319	530	-57.2%	-58.8%	6.6%	6.6%
Daimler	1,046	751	588	39.3%	34.2%	77.8%	77.8%
Ford	47,042	43,385	29,651	8.4%	4.4%	58.7%	58.7%
GM	38,124	28,816	26,989	32.3%	27.4%	41.3%	41.3%
Honda	1,028	3,195	452	-67.8%	-69.0%	127.6%	127.6%
Hyundai	105	10,083	676	-99.0%	-99.0%	-84.5%	-84.5%
Kia	4,092	12,004	2,214	-65.9%	-67.2%	84.8%	84.8%
Nissan	9,304	32,940	13,901	-71.8%	-72.8%	-33.1%	-33.1%
Stellantis	30,020	22,472	24,264	33.6%	28.6%	23.7%	23.7%
Subaru	1,254	1,682	1,615	-25.5%	-28.2%	-22.4%	-22.4%
Tesla	25	-	16			52.9%	52.9%
Toyota	18,896	28,768	22,910	-34.3%	-36.7%	-17.5%	-17.5%
Volkswagen Group	789	8,058	553	-90.2%	-90.6%	42.5%	42.5%
Industry	159,572	202,445	133,890	-21.2%	-24.1%	19.2%	19.2%

 

Fleet Penetration
Manufacturer	Apr 2022 Forecast	Apr 2021 Actual	Mar 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	MoM % Change
BMW	2.4%	4.1%	1.7%	-41.0%	39.4%
Daimler	3.7%	3.0%	2.0%	23.4%	83.0%
Ford	25.7%	22.0%	18.7%	16.5%	37.2%
GM	18.8%	12.1%	13.2%	55.5%	42.4%
Honda	1.0%	2.0%	0.4%	-51.7%	136.1%
Hyundai	0.2%	12.5%	1.1%	-98.6%	-83.6%
Kia	6.2%	17.1%	3.7%	-63.5%	67.8%
Nissan	12.1%	33.2%	17.4%	-63.7%	-30.9%
Stellantis	20.7%	13.5%	16.9%	52.7%	22.1%
Subaru	3.2%	2.7%	3.7%	15.6%	-15.0%
Tesla	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%		59.8%
Toyota	10.8%	12.1%	11.7%	-10.9%	-8.2%
Volkswagen Group	2.2%	11.3%	1.4%	-80.3%	57.8%
Industry	12.8%	13.4%	10.6%	-4.5%	20.7%

 

Total Market Share
Manufacturer	Apr 2022 Forecast	Apr 2021 Actual	Mar 2022 Actual
BMW	1.9%	2.1%	2.4%
Daimler	2.2%	1.6%	2.3%
Ford	14.7%	13.0%	12.5%
GM	16.3%	15.8%	16.2%
Honda	8.3%	10.3%	8.6%
Hyundai	4.9%	5.3%	5.1%
Kia	5.3%	4.6%	4.7%
Nissan	6.2%	6.6%	6.3%
Stellantis	11.6%	11.0%	11.3%
Subaru	3.2%	4.1%	3.4%
Tesla	3.7%	1.1%	3.8%
Toyota	14.1%	15.7%	15.4%
Volkswagen Group	2.8%	4.7%	3.1%
	95.1%	96.1%	95.2%

 

Retail Market Share
Manufacturer	Apr 2022 Forecast	Apr 2021 Actual	Mar 2022 Actual
BMW	2.1%	2.4%	2.7%
Daimler	2.5%	1.8%	2.5%
Ford	12.5%	11.7%	11.4%
GM	15.2%	16.0%	15.7%
Honda	9.5%	11.7%	9.5%
Hyundai	5.6%	5.4%	5.6%
Kia	5.6%	4.4%	5.1%
Nissan	6.2%	5.1%	5.8%
Stellantis	10.6%	11.0%	10.5%
Subaru	3.5%	4.6%	3.7%
Tesla	4.2%	1.3%	4.2%
Toyota	14.4%	16.0%	15.3%
Volkswagen Group	3.2%	4.8%	3.4%
	95.1%	96.2%	95.5%

 

ATP
Manufacturer	Apr 2022 Forecast	Apr 2021 Actual	Mar 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$66,898	$59,581	$65,857	12.3%	1.6%
Daimler	$69,018	$62,462	$71,192	10.5%	-3.1%
Ford	$48,824	$44,413	$46,998	9.9%	3.9%
GM	$50,292	$44,930	$49,911	11.9%	0.8%
Honda	$36,888	$31,999	$37,829	15.3%	-2.5%
Hyundai	$37,137	$30,583	$36,774	21.4%	1.0%
Kia	$34,530	$29,816	$34,455	15.8%	0.2%
Nissan	$35,739	$29,966	$34,393	19.3%	3.9%
Stellantis	$54,410	$45,940	$53,435	18.4%	1.8%
Subaru	$34,775	$31,213	$34,472	11.4%	0.9%
Toyota	$40,102	$35,438	$40,609	13.2%	-1.2%
Volkswagen Group	$44,233	$40,980	$43,526	7.9%	1.6%
Industry	$43,755	$38,163	$43,171	14.7%	1.4%
	$5,592		$584

 

Incentives
Manufacturer	Apr 2022 Forecast	Apr 2021 Actual	Mar 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$1,702	$4,872	$1,823	-65.1%	-6.6%
Daimler	$1,895	$3,799	$1,760	-50.1%	7.6%
Ford	$1,523	$2,919	$1,607	-47.8%	-5.2%
GM	$2,046	$4,641	$1,927	-55.9%	6.2%
Honda	$1,133	$2,285	$1,098	-50.4%	3.2%
Hyundai	$597	$2,440	$645	-75.5%	-7.4%
Kia	$834	$2,570	$890	-67.5%	-6.2%
Nissan	$1,695	$3,781	$1,772	-55.2%	-4.4%
Stellantis	$2,336	$3,841	$2,212	-39.2%	5.6%
Subaru	$922	$1,328	$873	-30.6%	5.6%
Toyota	$855	$2,516	$905	-66.0%	-5.6%
Volkswagen Group	$1,510	$3,924	$1,528	-61.5%	-1.2%
Industry	$1,466	$3,234	$1,472	-54.7%	-0.4%
	-$1,767		-$6

 

Incentives as % of ATP
Manufacturer	Apr 2022 Forecast	Apr 2021 Actual	Mar 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	2.5%	8.2%	2.8%	-68.9%	-8.1%
Daimler	2.7%	6.1%	2.5%	-54.9%	11.0%
Ford	3.1%	6.6%	3.4%	-52.5%	-8.8%
GM	4.1%	10.3%	3.9%	-60.6%	5.4%
Honda	3.1%	7.1%	2.9%	-57.0%	5.9%
Hyundai	1.6%	8.0%	1.8%	-79.9%	-8.4%
Kia	2.4%	8.6%	2.6%	-72.0%	-6.4%
Nissan	4.7%	12.6%	5.2%	-62.4%	-8.0%
Stellantis	4.3%	8.4%	4.1%	-48.6%	3.8%
Subaru	2.7%	4.3%	2.5%	-37.7%	4.7%
Toyota	2.1%	7.1%	2.2%	-70.0%	-4.4%
Volkswagen Group	3.4%	9.6%	3.5%	-64.4%	-2.7%
Industry	3.4%	8.5%	3.4%	-60.4%	-1.7%

 

Revenue
Manufacturer	Apr 2022 Forecast	Apr 2021 Actual	Mar 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
Industry	$54,602,883,710	$57,708,738,181	$54,568,664,490	-5.4%	0.1%

 

(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables auto buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great auto buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. 

 

 

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SOURCE TrueCar.com

FAQ

What are TrueCar's expected vehicle sales for April 2022?

TrueCar expects total new vehicle sales to reach 1,247,917 units in April 2022.

How much has TrueCar projected retail deliveries to decline in April 2022?

Retail deliveries are projected to decline by 20% year-over-year.

What is the seasonally adjusted annualized rate for April 2022?

The SAAR for April 2022 is estimated at 14.8 million units.

How much have incentives decreased in April 2022?

Incentive spending is down 55% year-over-year.

What was the average interest rate on new vehicles in April 2022?

The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.8%.