T. ROWE PRICE EXPERTS SHARE 2025 OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS
T. Rowe Price presented its 42nd annual global market outlook for 2025, featuring insights from key experts. The outlook suggests strong U.S. economic growth driven by non-residential investment, AI technologies, and green energy transition. Despite sticky inflation potentially limiting central bank rate cuts, the environment appears constructive for stock selection with strong consumer and business balance sheets. The firm expects broadening market returns and highlights opportunities in value stocks, emerging markets, and real asset equities. Key challenges include persistent inflation risks, energy prices, and consumer behavior post-election.
T. Rowe Price ha presentato il suo 42° rapporto annuale sulle prospettive del mercato globale per il 2025, con approfondimenti da esperti chiave. Le prospettive suggeriscono una forte crescita economica negli Stati Uniti sostenuta da investimenti non residenziali, tecnologie AI e transizione verso l'energia verde. Nonostante l'inflazione persistente possa limitare le riduzioni dei tassi da parte delle banche centrali, l'ambiente appare costruttivo per la selezione dei titoli grazie a solidi bilanci per i consumatori e le imprese. L'azienda prevede un ampiamento dei rendimenti di mercato e mette in evidenza opportunità nelle azioni di valore, nei mercati emergenti e nelle azioni di beni reali. Le principali sfide includono i rischi di inflazione persistente, i prezzi dell'energia e il comportamento dei consumatori dopo le elezioni.
T. Rowe Price presentó su 42ª perspectiva anual del mercado global para 2025, con insights de expertos clave. La perspectiva sugiere un fuerte crecimiento económico en EE. UU. impulsado por inversiones no residenciales, tecnologías de IA y la transición a energía verde. A pesar de que la inflación persistente podría limitar recortes en las tasas de interés del banco central, el entorno parece constructivo para la selección de acciones con sólidos balances para consumidores y empresas. La firma espera un ampliación de los rendimientos del mercado y destaca oportunidades en acciones de valor, mercados emergentes y equidades de activos reales. Los desafíos clave incluyen riesgos de inflación persistente, precios de la energía y comportamiento del consumidor después de las elecciones.
T. Rowe Price는 2025년 글로벌 시장 전망 제42회 연례 발표를 진행하며 주요 전문가들의 통찰력을 공유했습니다. 이 전망은 비주거 투자의 증가, AI 기술 및 녹색 에너지 전환에 힘입어 미국 경제의 강력한 성장을 제시합니다. 지속적인 인플레이션이 중앙은행의 금리 인하를 제한할 가능성이 있지만, 탄탄한 소비자 및 기업 재무제표로 인해 주식 선택에 유리한 환경이 조성되고 있는 것으로 보입니다. 회사는 시장 수익의 확대를 예상하며, 가치주, 신흥시장 및 실물자산 주식에서 기회를 강조합니다. 주요 도전 과제로는 지속적인 인플레이션 위험, 에너지 가격, 선거 이후 소비자의 행동이 있습니다.
T. Rowe Price a présenté son 42ème rapport annuel sur les perspectives du marché mondial pour 2025, avec des éclairages d'experts clés. Les perspectives suggèrent une forte croissance économique aux États-Unis, soutenue par des investissements non résidentiels, des technologies d'IA et la transition vers l'énergie verte. Bien que l'inflation persistante puisse limiter les réductions de taux des banques centrales, l'environnement semble constructif pour la sélection d'actions avec des bilans solides pour les consommateurs et les entreprises. La société s'attend à un élargissement des rendements du marché et souligne les opportunités dans les actions de valeur, les marchés émergents et les actions d'actifs réels. Les principaux défis incluent les risques d'inflation persistante, les prix de l'énergie et le comportement des consommateurs après les élections.
T. Rowe Price präsentierte sein 42. jährlicher Ausblick auf die globale Marktentwicklung für 2025 und stellte Erkenntnisse von wichtigen Experten vor. Der Ausblick deutet auf ein starkes Wirtschaftswachstum in den USA hin, das durch nicht-residentiale Investitionen, KI-Technologien und den Übergang zu grüner Energie angetrieben wird. Trotz anhaltender Inflation, die mögliche Zinssenkungen der Zentralbanken einschränken könnte, scheint das Umfeld förderlich für die Aktienauswahl zu sein, mit soliden Bilanzen von Verbrauchern und Unternehmen. Das Unternehmen erwartet ein Durchbrechen der Marktrenditen und hebt Chancen in Value-Aktien, Schwellenländern und Immobilienaktien hervor. Wichtige Herausforderungen sind anhaltende Inflationsrisiken, Energiepreise und das Verbraucherverhalten nach der Wahl.
- Strong U.S. economic growth expected to continue in 2025
- Healthy consumer and business balance sheets
- Positive investment trends in AI and GLP-1s
- Low unemployment rates expected to persist
- Broadening market returns anticipated
- Sticky inflation limiting central bank rate cuts
- High interest rate volatility expected to continue
- Credit assets considered expensive amid geopolitical uncertainty
- Large U.S. fiscal deficits could increase Treasury yields
Insights
This comprehensive market outlook from T. Rowe Price reveals several key insights for investors. The firm projects continued U.S. economic strength in 2025, despite sticky inflation, with particular emphasis on AI-driven productivity gains and green energy investments. Notable points include:
- Expectation of slower but sustained job market growth with low unemployment
- Potential for rate cuts, though less aggressive than markets initially priced in
- Value stocks positioned for potential outperformance versus growth by Q4 2025
- Increased focus on securitized credit and bank loans over investment-grade corporate debt
The analysis suggests a 90% recession probability using traditional metrics, but only 11% when incorporating broader indicators - a significant divergence that investors should monitor. The outlook maintains a constructive view on equities while acknowledging potential risks from energy prices and consumer behavior.
The global investment landscape for 2025 presents interesting sector-specific opportunities amid unsynchronized market cycles. Key investment themes include:
- Artificial Intelligence and GLP-1 technologies driving market returns
- China's new stimulus measures potentially impacting global inflation
- Emerging markets and international small caps showing promise
- Real asset equities positioned favorably
The divergence between U.S. and European investor standards, coupled with increased shareholder activism, suggests a more complex corporate governance environment ahead. The broadening market outlook indicates potential rotation opportunities, particularly in value stocks, though investors should remain vigilant about inflation risks in commodities and services sectors.
Though inflation remains sticky, market conditions appear favorable for a growing
Uruçi highlighted her expectation for another year of strong
QUOTES AND KEY OBSERVATIONS
Blerina Uruçi, Chief
Quote
"Improving productivity could signal the end of generally lackluster growth seen since the global financial crisis. Though rare, some of the factors that have historically driven positive productivity shocks appear to be in place today. With rising labor and non-labor costs, businesses are seeking to maintain output without sacrificing profits. Moreover, investments in capital and intellectual property have advanced AI and other technologies, increasing productivity with high capital and low labor needs."
Key Observations
- The ingredients are present for another year of robust growth in the
U.S. In recent years, healthy expansion in theU.S. has spilled over to the rest of the world, helping offset the softness inEurope andChina . We expect this to continue in 2025. - The positive fiscal impulse in the
U.S. is now fading, but measures like the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act will ensure further disbursement of tax incentives and industry specific grants during the coming years. - Despite this positive backdrop, job creation will likely slow down next year as companies have front-loaded hiring and are likely to focus on productivity improvements. Without a catalyst for mass layoffs, the expectation is for unemployment rates to remain low.
Jennifer Martin, Portfolio Specialist, Global Equity
Quote
"We expect the coming year will present a constructive environment for stock selection. Consumer and business balance sheets are in good shape, and the
Key Observations
- Inflation has fallen to near target ranges, enabling the
U.S. Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. - The market has been supported by powerful investment trends, such as artificial intelligence and GLP-1s, alongside recent economic policy measures and a broadening of market returns.
- The outlook could shift with recent developments in
China , where in late September, policymakers announced a wide range of measures designed to support the economy. It will be critical to observe how these new Chinese stimulus efforts will influence global inflation. - Looking forward, the two wildcards for markets will likely be energy, which could be a leading inflationary indicator, and the consumer, where signs of weakness may rebound post-election.
Ken Orchard, Head of International Fixed Income
Quote
"Credit assets, while generally fundamentally sound, are expensive in the face of uncertain geopolitics and likely volatility. The expectation is for credit to perform well over the medium term, but the short-term setup is relatively unattractive. In the current market, we favor securitized credit and bank loans over investment grade corporate credit."
Key Observations
- Fixed income instruments that typically benefit from inflation have been attractive, including Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS), global linkers – also known as inflation-indexed bonds – and breakeven inflation swaps.
China's coordinated easing may help boost growth globally and in related emerging markets, but the extent of the fiscal stimulus remains to be seen.- Large
U.S. fiscal deficits could also increase growth and Treasury yields. In an environment of "U.S. exceptionalism," we believe global bonds are attractive and may be less risky thanU.S. Treasuries. - Real, inflation-adjusted yields have moved higher to reflect the new macroeconomic regime, and interest rate volatility will likely remain high.
Sébastien Page, Head of Global Multi-Asset and Chief Investment Officer
Quote
"T. Rowe Price's Multi-Asset investment team anticipates a broadening of the market over the next six to 18 months. The team is long value stocks, emerging markets, real asset equities, and international small caps, but neutral on
- A three-factor model including rising unemployment, manufacturing PMI, and the inverted yield curve shows a
90% probability of aU.S. recession in the next 12 months. However, using services PMI instead of manufacturing, the likelihood of drops to22% . When also adding stock returns from the last year and the level of unemployment, the statistical recession probability drops to11% . - The market isn't pricing in enough inflation risk. Commodities remain an important factor, goods disinflation may have bottomed, and real estate and services inflation could remain sticky.
Donna Anderson, Global Head of Corporate Governance
Quote
"In 2024, shareholder activism has surged globally. This has prompted T. Rowe Price to voice its opinions more frequently, especially when public narratives around contested situations and shareholder proposals have been off the mark."
Key Observations
- On shareholder proposals, T. Rowe Price's approach has been consistent over time; the industry more broadly rode the pendulum too far in both directions.
- In 2025, expect
U.S. and European investors' standards continuing to diverge further, increased investor activism via social media, and early signs of pullback on "performance-based" compensation and sustainability metrics in executive pay programs. - There are several themes where we are out of consensus, including the underappreciated costs of activism on long-term company performance.
A recording of today's event can be found on the Global Market Outlook Press Briefing registration page; registration can be completed at any time for access.
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