OCTOBER HARVARD CAPS / HARRIS POLL: HARRIS AHEAD BY ONE POINT NATIONALLY BUT TRUMP LEADS WITH BATTLEGROUND STATE VOTERS

Rhea-AI Summary

The October Harvard CAPS / Harris poll reveals a tight presidential race, with Harris leading Trump 49-48 nationally, but Trump ahead in battleground states. Key findings include:

- 81% of registered voters plan to vote
- Mail-in voting behavior is nearly even across party lines
- Trump leads on immigration, crime, and foreign policy
- Harris leads on presidential characteristics like temperament and honesty
- Economy and inflation remain top voter concerns
- 63% support Israel's response to recent Iranian missile attack

The poll also shows Biden's approval rating at 42%, while 51% approve of Trump's presidential performance and 49% approve of Harris as Vice-President. Voters are split on which administration would better their economic situation.

Positive

• Harris leads Trump by 1 point nationally (49-48)
• Harris holds a 1.7-point lead among likely voters
• Harris leads Trump on 10 out of 15 presidential characteristics
• 51% of voters believe Harris is better equipped to be commander-in-chief over Trump
• Harris' approval rating as Vice-President increased by 2 points to 49%

Negative

• Trump leads in battleground states among registered, likely, and early voters
• Trump is perceived as stronger on specific foreign policy issues like Ukraine/Russia war, standing up to China, and Israel/Hamas war
• 51% of voters believe they will be better off economically under a new Trump administration compared to 49% for Harris
• 61% of voters say the U.S. economy is on the wrong track
• 47% of voters say their personal financial situation is getting worse

Insights

Political Analyst

This poll reveals a highly competitive presidential race, with Harris narrowly leading nationally but Trump ahead in important battleground states. Key takeaways include:

• The 1.7-point national lead for Harris among likely voters is within the margin of error, indicating a virtual tie.
• Trump's 2-point lead in battleground states among both likely and registered voters could be decisive in the Electoral College.
• The 10% gender gap favoring Harris and the widening Latino voter gap (now 17%) are significant demographic trends.
• Mail-in voting behavior has equalized across party lines, potentially impacting traditional voting patterns.
• Voters perceive Trump as stronger on immigration, crime and foreign policy, while Harris leads on personality and some economic measures.

This close race suggests high volatility and the potential for external events or campaign strategies to significantly influence the outcome. Investors should monitor how these trends might impact sectors sensitive to policy changes, such as healthcare, energy and defense.

Market Research Analyst

The poll's findings have several implications for businesses and investors:

• Economic concerns remain paramount, with 46% of voters citing inflation as their top issue. This suggests continued pressure on the Federal Reserve and potential market volatility.
• The 61% of voters viewing the economy negatively indicates persistent consumer caution, which could affect retail and discretionary spending sectors.
• Foreign policy perceptions, particularly regarding China and the Middle East, may influence trade policies and global market sentiment.
• The even split on which administration would be better for personal finances (51% Trump vs. 49% Harris) indicates uncertainty about future economic policies.
• Generational differences in views on international issues, particularly among younger voters, could signal long-term shifts in foreign policy and global business environments.

Investors should consider these factors when assessing potential policy impacts on various sectors and preparing for possible market reactions to election outcomes.

MAIL-IN VOTER BEHAVIOR EVENS OUT ACROSS PARTY ID, ONLY A 7-POINT GAP BETWEEN DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS (DOWN 12 POINTS FROM NOVEMBER 2020)

85% OF VOTERS SAY CBS SHOULD RELEASE FULL TRANSCRIPT OF HARRIS 60 MINUTES INTERVIEW

NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Oct. 14, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the October Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.

The presidential horserace remains close at 49-48, with Harris leading and up 1 point from September. Trump, however, leads in battleground states among registered, likely, and early voters. The poll also covers public opinion on policy issues and foreign affairs. Download key results here.

"There is no definitive answer – it's about as close a race as you can possibly get, well within the confidence interval of any poll," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "Harris has lost some momentum from when she was first nominated but is still driving strong messages around her personality and some of her economic measures, while Trump leads on immigration, crime, and foreign policy but has been less effective on economic messaging."

HORSERACE HAS HARRIS +1 BUT TRUMP LEADING IN BATTLEGROUND STATES

• 81% of registered voters say they will definitely vote in the election (Democrat: 85%; Republican: 84%; Independent: 72%).
• Harris holds a 1.7-point lead among likely voters, but in battleground states, Trump has a 2-point lead among both likely and registered voters.
• There is a 10-point gender gap with female voters favoring Harris. The gap for Latino voters has widened from 7 points in September to 17 points (Harris: 54%; Trump: 37%; Don't Know/Unsure: 9%).
• 50% of voters say they will vote on Election Day, 45% say they will vote early, and 5% do not plan to vote. Mail-in voting behavior is nearly even across party ID (Democrat: 49%; Republican: 42%; Independent: 44%), markedly different from that in November 2020 (Democrat: 54%; Republican: 35%; Independent: 45%).
• Among those voting early, 51% voted for Harris and 43% voted for Trump (in battleground states, Trump: 48%; Harris: 47%).
• 14% of voters say they are still weighing their choices, including 25% of Independents.
• Democrats and Republicans remain neck-in-neck in the congressional election (Democrat: 51%; Republican: 49%).

CANDIDATE STRENGTHS ON THE ISSUES CONTINUE TO VARY WIDELY

• Trump's perceived policy stances align more with those of the general public on issues like tougher law enforcement and opposition to open borders, the switch to electric vehicles, free healthcare for illegal immigrants, and men who have transitioned to women competing in women's sports.
• 63% of voters are against a national ban on abortion. Most believe Harris is against such a ban (73%, +1 from September) and Trump is for it (54%, -1).
• Though many voters say Harris is to the left (53%) and Trump is to the right (50%) of them politically, 59% say they would rather vote for someone to the right of them.
• Voters believe Trump would do a better job on specific foreign policy issues like the Ukraine/Russia war (+9), standing up to China (+13), and the Israel/Hamas war (+10) over Harris, and 70% believe he has experience in foreign affairs. But 51% of voters believe Harris is better equipped to be commander-in-chief over Trump. 

CURRENT EVENTS HAVE MINOR EFFECTS ON CANDIDATE PERCEPTIONS

• 85% of voters say CBS should release the full transcript of Harris' 60 Minutes interview. More broadly, 51% of voters say recent Harris interviews have helped her, and 49% say they have hurt her (an 8-point gap among Independents, with more thinking they hurt her).
• Harris holds leads over Trump on 10 out of 15 presidential characteristics including right temperament (+15), relates to the working class (+12), and honest (+10), while Trump is seen as more experienced (+10) and a fighter (+6).
• 58% of voters say they were satisfied with FEMA's response to recent hurricanes, and 67% of voters believe FEMA money should not have gone to housing illegal immigrants.
• 38% of voters say JD Vance won the vice-presidential debate, while 35% of voters say Tim Walz won.
• 67% of voters believe billionaires mostly support Trump, while 33% of voters believe they support Harris.

APPROVAL RATINGS AND MOOD OF COUNTRY REMAIN UNCHANGED, WITH ECONOMY TOP-OF-MIND

• Biden's approval rating sits at 42%, unchanged from the last three months, while 51% of voters approve of the job Trump did as President (-1 from September) and 49% approve of the job Harris is doing as Vice-President (+2).
• 51% of voters believe they will be better off economically under a new Trump administration, while 49% hold this belief for a Harris administration.
• Inflation and immigration remain the top two national issues for voters, with 46% of voters saying inflation is most important personally (Democrat: 39%, Republican: 52%; Independent: 47%).
• 61% of voters say the U.S. economy is on the wrong track, staying relatively consistent since the summer of 2022. 47% of voters say their personal financial situation is getting worse (rural: 57%; suburban: 48%; urban: 40%).

VOTERS SUPPORT ISRAEL'S STRIKES ON HEZBOLLAH AND RESPONSE TO IRAN, BELIEVING IRAN IS A SOURCE OF CONFLICT AND TERROR IN THE REGION

• 52% of voters say Hezbollah is a terrorist organization, with 54% of 18-24 y.o. and 46% of 25-34 y.o. voters saying they are unsure.
• 73% of voters say Iran is a regional sponsor of terror in the Middle East and blame Iran over Israel for escalating conflict, but 53% of 18-24 y.o. and 46% of 25-34 y.o. voters say Iran is not a regional sponsor of terror.
• 63% of voters believe Israel is justified in responding to the recent Iranian missile attack (18-24: 45%; 25-34: 50%; 65+: 77%).
• 63% of voters say campus protests in the U.S. are mostly about saving lives in Gaza rather than supporting Hamas and Hezbollah.
• 65% of voters say authors who support Hamas and Hezbollah should not be given airtime on national TV.

The October Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on October 11-13, 2024, among 3,145 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. As part of the sample, 2,596 likely voters and 898 battleground state voters were also interviewed. Follow the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms. 

About The Harris Poll & HarrisX

The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.

HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies
The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics. Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.

Contact:
Kara Gelber
pr@stagwellglobal.com

 

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SOURCE Stagwell Inc.

FAQ

What is the current polling result for Harris vs Trump in the October Harvard CAPS / Harris poll?

According to the October Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, Harris is leading Trump by a narrow margin of 49-48 nationally. However, Trump is ahead in battleground states among registered, likely, and early voters.

How does mail-in voting behavior differ across party lines in the October 2024 poll compared to November 2020?

The October 2024 poll shows mail-in voting behavior is nearly even across party ID (Democrat: 49%; Republican: 42%; Independent: 44%), which is markedly different from November 2020 when there was a larger gap (Democrat: 54%; Republican: 35%; Independent: 45%).

What are the top national issues for voters according to the October Harvard CAPS / Harris poll?

The poll indicates that inflation and immigration remain the top two national issues for voters, with 46% of voters saying inflation is the most important issue personally (Democrat: 39%, Republican: 52%; Independent: 47%).

How do voters perceive Harris and Trump on foreign policy issues in the October 2024 poll?

Voters believe Trump would do a better job on specific foreign policy issues like the Ukraine/Russia war (+9), standing up to China (+13), and the Israel/Hamas war (+10) over Harris. However, 51% of voters believe Harris is better equipped to be commander-in-chief over Trump.