S&P 500 Q4 2023 Buybacks Increase 18.0% Compared to Q3, Full Year 2023 Shows Decline of 13.8% from 2022 Levels, Earnings Per Share Impact Continues to Decline; Buybacks Tax Reduced Q4 Operating Earnings by 0.44% and 2023 by 0.40%
- Q4 2023 buybacks increased to $219.1 billion, up 18.0% from Q3 2023 and 3.7% from Q4 2022.
- Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples had significant spending increases, while Information Technology and Energy showed varying trends.
- The 1% tax on net buybacks reduced operating earnings by 0.44% for Q4 2023.
- The 2023 expenditure of $795.1 billion was down 13.8% from 2022, with overall buybacks declining.
- Only 12.3% of companies saw a significant increase in EPS due to share count reduction, compared to 19.4% in Q4 2022.
- The impact of the 1% tax on net buybacks may lead to changes in future buyback strategies.
Insights
The recent uptick in S&P 500 share repurchases reflects a more aggressive stance by companies to manage their capital allocation amid shifting market conditions. The notable increase in buybacks, particularly among Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples sectors, suggests a strategic move to leverage share repurchases to potentially enhance earnings per share (EPS) and shareholder value, especially when organic growth may be more challenging. However, the overall reduction in buybacks for the year compared to the previous year indicates a more cautious approach to capital expenditure, likely influenced by broader economic uncertainty and the anticipation of changes in interest rate policies.
The concentration of buybacks within the top 20 companies underscores the disparity in cash flow generation and capital deployment capabilities across the index. This could signal a widening gap between companies with robust cash reserves and those with more constrained financial flexibility. The new 1% tax on net buybacks introduces an additional cost layer to share repurchase programs, potentially influencing future corporate strategies towards buybacks and dividends. While the immediate impact on earnings seems modest, the long-term effects warrant monitoring as companies balance the tax implications with the desire to return value to shareholders.
The data on S&P 500 buybacks and dividends reveals a complex picture for investors. On one hand, the record dividend payments in Q4 2023 and for the full year signal a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders. On the other hand, the decline in total shareholder returns for the year suggests that companies may be reaching a threshold in terms of how much capital they can return to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. This could be a result of the new excise tax on buybacks or other factors such as higher share prices, which reduce the number of shares repurchased for a given amount of money.
Investors should consider the implications of the share count impact on EPS, which has been decreasing. While buybacks can support share price by reducing supply, the effectiveness of this strategy in boosting EPS is diminishing. This could alter the perceived value of buybacks as a tool for enhancing shareholder value and may lead to a reassessment of their role in portfolio performance.
The introduction of the 1% excise tax on net buybacks is a significant development for corporate finance strategies. Although the immediate effect on operating and GAAP earnings appears manageable, the prospect of an increase in this tax rate could have far-reaching implications. Companies must now factor this tax into their capital allocation decisions, weighing the benefits of share repurchases against the additional tax burden. The potential for further changes to the tax structure underscores the need for agility in corporate financial planning.
Furthermore, the tax's impact on EPS, though currently small, could become a more pressing concern if rates increase. Companies with high buyback activity, particularly those in the tech sector, may need to reassess the balance between buybacks and other uses of capital, such as investment in growth opportunities or debt reduction. The evolving tax landscape will undoubtedly shape corporate behavior and investor expectations in the coming years.
- S&P 500 Q4 2023 buybacks were
, up$219.1 billion 18.0% from Q3 2023's and up$185.6 billion 3.7% from Q4 2022's$211.2 billion - The 2023 expenditure of
was down$795.2 billion 13.8% from the 2022 expenditure of .7$922 - Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples significantly increased their spending for the quarter,
52.7% and80.3% respectively, as their 2023 expenditures declined,11.4% and34.3% ; Information Technology increased15.9% for the quarter and was down24.5% for the year, as Energy ticked down1.1% for the quarter and increased9.5% for the year - The 2023 net buyback
1% tax reduced Q4 2023 operating earnings by0.44% (0.40% for 2023) and As Reported GAAP by0.50% (0.45% )
Historical data on S&P 500 buybacks is available at www.spdji.com/indices/equity/sp-500.
Key Takeaways:
- Q4 2023 share repurchases were
, up$219.1 billion 18.0% from Q3 2023's expenditure, and up$185.6 billion 3.7% from Q4 2022's .$211.1 billion - For 2023, buybacks were
, down from$795.1 billion for 2022; the 12-month peak was in June 2022 with$922.7 billion .$1.00 5 trillion - 313 companies reported buybacks of at least
for the quarter, up from 281 in Q3 2023 and down from 318 in Q4 2022; 373 companies did some buybacks for the quarter, up from 362 in Q3 2023 and down from 385 in Q4 2022; 429 companies did some buybacks in 2023, down from 439 in 2022.$5 million - Buybacks remained top heavy with the top 20 S&P 500 companies accounting for
54.1% of Q4 2023 buybacks, up from Q3 2023's50.9% , above the historical average of47.4% , and above the pre-COVID historical average of44.5% . 12.3% of companies reduced share counts used for earnings per share (EPS) by at least4% year-over-year, down from Q3 2023's13.8% and down from Q4 2022's19.4% ; for Q4 2023 145 issues increased their shares used for EPS over Q3 2023 and 295 reduced them.- S&P 500 Q4 2023 dividends increased
0.7% to a record from the prior Q3 2023's$154.1 billion and were$144.2 billion 5.5% greater than the in Q4 2022. For 2023, dividends set a record$146.1 billion payment, up$588.2 billion 4.2% on an aggregate basis from 2022's .$564.6 billion - Total shareholders return of buybacks and dividends increased to
in Q4 2023, up$373.2 billion 13.2% from Q3 2023's and up$329.8 billion 4.5% from Q4 2022's . Total shareholder returns for 2023 decreased to$357.3 billion from 2022's$1.38 3 trillion .$1.48 7 trillion - The
1% tax on net buybacks, which started in 2023, reduced the Q4 2023 S&P 500 operating earnings by0.44% and As Reported GAAP earnings by0.50% and for 2023 they reduced earnings0.40% for operating and0.45% for As Reported; the proforma for full year 2022 was a0.51% reduction for operating and a0.58% reduction for as reported.
"The share count impact on EPS decreased for the fifth consecutive quarter, even as companies increased their overall buyback expenditure by
"Given the market's expectations for interest rates to decline later in the year, even as higher-for-longer interest rates continue, companies may be shy of financing buybacks going forward, as discretionary buybacks, which reduce share count, may need to be financed from ongoing operations. Top-tier cash-flow issues however are seen as continuing their buybacks and positively impacting their EPS."
The
Silverblatt added: "The
Q4 2023 GICS® Sector Analysis:
Information Technology maintained its lead in buybacks. For Q4 2023, the sector increased their expenditure
Financials ticked up
Energy slightly decreased their buybacks for the fifth consecutive quarter after significantly increasing them in the prior periods. For Q4 2023, Energy expenditures declined
Industrials increased
Issues:
The five issues with the highest total buybacks for Q4 2023 were:
- Apple (AAPL): continued to dominate the issue level buybacks, as it again spent the most of any issue with its Q4 2023 expenditure ranking as the 9th highest in S&P 500 history. For the quarter, the company spent
, up from Q3 2023's$22.7 billion (the 13th largest in index history). Apple holds 18 of the top 20 record quarters (Meta Platforms holds #13 and QUALCOMM holds #15). For 2023, Apple spent$21.3 billion on buybacks, down from 2022's$83.9 billion . Over the five-year period Apple has spent$94.1 billion , and$429 billion over the ten-year period.$658 billion - Alphabet (GOOG/L):
for Q4 2023, up from the$16.2 billion in Q3 2023; the 2023 expenditure was$15.8 billion versus 2022's expenditure of$61.5 billion .$59.3 billion - RTX Corporation (RTX):
for Q4 2023, up from$10.3 billion in Q3 2023; the 2023 expenditure was$1.4 billion versus 2022's$12.9 billion .$2.8 billion - General Motors (GM):
for Q4 2023, up from$10.0 billion in Q3 2023; the 2023 expenditure was$0.3 billion versus 2022's$11.1 billion .$2.5 billion - Broadcom (AVGO):
$8.3 billion for Q4 2023, up from in Q3 2023; the 2023 expenditure was$0.6 billion versus 2022's$14.5 billion .$6.9 billion
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S&P Dow Jones Indices | |||
S&P 500 proforma net buyback tax impact | |||
TAX | TAX % OF | TAX % OF | |
$ BILLIONS | OPERATING | AS REPORTED | |
Q4 2023 | 0.44 % | 0.50 % | |
Q3 2023 | 0.39 % | 0.42 % | |
Q2 2023 | 0.34 % | 0.38 % | |
Q1 2023 | 0.45 % | 0.49 % | |
2023 | 0.40 % | 0.45 % | |
2022 proforma | 0.51 % | 0.58 % | |
2021 proforma | 0.45 % | 0.47 % |
S&P Dow Jones Indices | ||||||||
S&P 500, $ | (preliminary in bold) | |||||||
PERIOD | MARKET | OPERATING | AS REPORTED | DIVIDEND & | ||||
VALUE | EARNINGS | EARNINGS | DIVIDENDS | BUYBACKS | DIVIDEND | BUYBACK | BUYBACK | |
$ BILLIONS | $ BILLIONS | $ BILLIONS | $ BILLIONS | $ BILLIONS | YIELD | YIELD | YIELD | |
2023 Prelim. | 1.47 % | 1.99 % | 3.46 % | |||||
2022 | 1.76 % | 2.87 % | 4.63 % | |||||
2021 | 1.27 % | 2.18 % | 3.45 % | |||||
2020 | 1.53 % | 1.64 % | 3.17 % | |||||
2019 | 1.81 % | 2.72 % | 4.54 % | |||||
2018 | 2.17 % | 3.84 % | 6.01 % | |||||
12/31/2023 Prelim. | 1.47 % | 1.99 % | 3.46 % | |||||
9/30/2023 | 1.61 % | 2.19 % | 3.81 % | |||||
6/30/2023 | 1.55 % | 2.19 % | 3.74 % | |||||
3/31/2023 | 1.67 % | 2.50 % | 4.17 % | |||||
12/31/2022 | 1.76 % | 2.87 % | 4.63 % | |||||
9/30/2022 | 1.83 % | 3.26 % | 5.09 % | |||||
6/30/2022 | 1.70 % | 3.15 % | 4.85 % | |||||
3/31/2022 | 1.37 % | 2.57 % | 3.94 % | |||||
12/31/2021 | 1.27 % | 2.18 % | 3.45 % | |||||
9/30/2021 | 1.37 % | 2.03 % | 3.40 % | |||||
6/30/2021 | 1.33 % | 1.68 % | 3.01 % | |||||
3/31/2021 | 1.43 % | 1.48 % | 2.91 % | |||||
12/31/2020 | 1.53 % | 1.64 % | 3.17 % | |||||
9/30/2020 | 1.75 % | 2.05 % | 3.80 % | |||||
6/30/2020 | 1.93 % | 2.52 % | 4.45 % | |||||
3/31/2020 | 2.31 % | 3.37 % | 5.68 % | |||||
12/31/2019 | 1.81 % | 2.72 % | 4.54 % |
S&P Dow Jones Indices | |||||||
S&P 500 SECTOR BUYBACKS | |||||||
SECTOR $ MILLIONS | Q4,'23 | Q3,'23 | Q4,'22 | 12MoDec,'23 | 12MoDec,'22 | 5-YEARS | 10-YEARS |
Consumer Discretionary | |||||||
Consumer Staples | |||||||
Energy | |||||||
Financials | |||||||
Healthcare | |||||||
Industrials | |||||||
Information Technology | |||||||
Materials | |||||||
Real Estate | |||||||
Communication Services | |||||||
Utilities | |||||||
TOTAL | |||||||
SECTOR BUYBACK MAKEUP % | Q4,'23 | Q3,'23 | Q4,'22 | 12MoDec,'23 | 12MoDec,'22 | 5-YEARS | 10-YEARS |
Consumer Discretionary | 13.11 % | 10.13 % | 8.91 % | 10.50 % | 10.21 % | 9.41 % | 11.64 % |
Consumer Staples | 4.13 % | 2.70 % | 3.33 % | 3.09 % | 4.06 % | 4.04 % | 5.42 % |
Energy | 7.33 % | 8.75 % | 9.39 % | 8.78 % | 6.91 % | 4.40 % | 4.02 % |
Financials | 13.43 % | 15.79 % | 10.65 % | 17.40 % | 13.16 % | 18.44 % | 18.41 % |
Healthcare | 6.02 % | 8.06 % | 11.55 % | 8.14 % | 11.15 % | 9.92 % | 11.31 % |
Industrials | 12.37 % | 7.70 % | 10.61 % | 8.58 % | 8.90 % | 7.97 % | 9.68 % |
Information Technology | 25.69 % | 26.16 % | 27.30 % | 24.89 % | 28.39 % | 29.80 % | 28.80 % |
Materials | 1.35 % | 2.84 % | 3.10 % | 1.91 % | 3.08 % | 2.35 % | 2.38 % |
Real Estate | 0.11 % | 0.46 % | 0.34 % | 0.21 % | 0.41 % | 0.31 % | 0.29 % |
Communication Services | 15.85 % | 17.25 % | 14.75 % | 16.09 % | 13.54 % | 13.00 % | 7.75 % |
Utilities | 0.62 % | 0.16 % | 0.06 % | 0.41 % | 0.19 % | 0.36 % | 0.30 % |
TOTAL | 100.00 % | 100.00 % | 100.00 % | 100.00 % | 100.00 % | 100.00 % | 100.00 % |
S&P Dow Jones Indices | ||||||||||
S&P 500 20 LARGEST Q4 2023 BUYBACKS, $ MILLIONS | ||||||||||
Company | Ticker | Sector | Q4 2023 | Q3 2023 | Q4 2022 | 12-Months | 12-Months | 5-Year | 10-Year | Indicated |
Buybacks | Buybacks | Buybacks | Dec,'23 | Dec,'22 | Buybacks | Buybacks | Dividend | |||
$ Million | $ Million | $ Million | $ Million | $ Million | $ Million | $ Million | $ Million | |||
Apple | AAPL | Information Technology | ||||||||
Alphabet | GOOGL | Communication Services | ||||||||
RTX | RTX | Industrials | ||||||||
General Motors | GM | Consumer Discretionary | ||||||||
Broadcom | AVGO | Information Technology | ||||||||
Meta Platforms | META | Communication Services | ||||||||
Exxon Mobil | XOM | Energy | ||||||||
Microsoft | MSFT | Information Technology | ||||||||
Visa | V | Financials | ||||||||
Comcast | CMCSA | Communication Services | ||||||||
NVIDIA | NVDA | Information Technology | ||||||||
Chevron | CVX | Energy | ||||||||
Lockheed Martin | LMT | Industrials | ||||||||
Caterpillar I | CAT | Industrials | ||||||||
Marathon Petroleum | MPC | Energy | ||||||||
Netflix | NFLX | Communication Services | ||||||||
Booking Holdings | BKNG | Consumer Discretionary | ||||||||
Wells Fargo | WFC | Financials | ||||||||
JPMorgan | JPM | Financials | ||||||||
T-Mobile US | TMUS | Communication Services | ||||||||
Top 20 | ||||||||||
S&P 500 | ||||||||||
Top 20 % of S&P 500 | 54.13 % | 46.39 % | 37.61 % | 46.97 % | 35.02 % | 36.02 % | 29.34 % | 19.07 % | ||
Gross values are not adjusted for float |
S&P Dow Jones Indices | ||||
S&P 500 Q4 2023 Buyback Report | ||||
SECTOR | DIVIDEND | BUYBACK | COMBINED | |
YIELD | YIELD | YIELD | ||
Consumer Discretionary | 0.80 % | 1.92 % | 2.71 % | |
Consumer Staples | 2.60 % | 0.95 % | 3.56 % | |
Energy | 3.31 % | 4.31 % | 7.62 % | |
Financials | 1.68 % | 2.48 % | 4.17 % | |
HealthCare | 1.62 % | 1.19 % | 2.81 % | |
Industrials | 1.47 % | 1.85 % | 3.31 % | |
Information Technology | 0.71 % | 1.51 % | 2.22 % | |
Materials | 1.84 % | 1.49 % | 3.33 % | |
Real Estate | 3.51 % | 0.17 % | 3.68 % | |
Communications Services | 1.06 % | 4.09 % | 5.15 % | |
Utilities | 3.63 % | 0.35 % | 3.98 % | |
S&P 500 | 1.43 % | 1.87 % | 3.30 % | |
Uses full values (unadjusted for float) | ||||
Dividends based on indicated; buybacks based on the last 12-months ending Q4,'23 |
Share Count Changes | ||
(Y/Y diluted shares used for EPS) | >= | <=- |
Q4 2024 | 3.85 % | 12.35 % |
Q3 2023 | 4.60 % | 13.80 % |
Q2 2023 | 4.22 % | 16.27 % |
Q1 2023 | 4.02 % | 18.47 % |
Q4 2022 | 5.01 % | 19.44 % |
Q3 2022 | 7.21 % | 21.24 % |
Q2 2022 | 8.42 % | 19.84 % |
Q1 2022 | 7.62 % | 17.64 % |
Q4 2021 | 10.06 % | 14.89 % |
Q3 2021 | 10.22 % | 7.41 % |
Q2 2021 | 11.02 % | 5.41 % |
Q1 2021 | 10.40 % | 5.80 % |
Q4 2020 | 9.02 % | 6.01 % |
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FAQ
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