COVID-19 Heat Map Updated With Some Bright Spots In Our Recovery Expectations
S&P Global Ratings has adjusted its COVID-19 corporate sector recovery expectations, indicating stabilization in recovery views. The recovery timeline varies significantly across sectors, with projections extending to 2022 or beyond for many. Sectors like travel and leisure continue to face challenges, while consumer staples, technology, health care, and homebuilders show stronger resilience. The report emphasizes the influence of regional factors, vaccine availability, and fiscal support on recovery paths, with developed markets anticipated to recover faster than emerging ones.
- Consumer staples and technology sectors perform better than expected.
- Health care and homebuilders show resilience and growth.
- Travel and leisure sectors struggle with low demand and high debt.
- New virus strains may delay recovery efforts.
CHICAGO, Feb. 22, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- (S&P Global Ratings)—S&P Global Ratings has updated its COVID-19 corporate sector recovery expectations, with those views beginning to stabilize. Consistent with our previous expectations, there is tremendous variance of recovery prospects across different corporate sectors. We still believe it will take until well into 2022 or, in some cases, 2023 and beyond for many sectors to recover to 2019 credit metrics (see "COVID-19 Heat Map: Some Bright Spots In Recovery Amid Signs Of Stability" published today).
As the view becomes clearer, variations by country and region are also developing based on case counts, mitigation efforts, the availability of vaccines, and timing until widespread vaccination. There are hurdles to still overcome as new strains of the virus and logistical impediments to vaccine roll out may delay containment of the virus as well as a return to normalcy that is key for a full recovery.
The divergence in the shape of the recovery remains pronounced, as the travel and leisure sectors continue to struggle with low demand and higher debt balances. Conversely, consumer staples, technology, health care, and homebuilders have fared well and, in some cases, better than we initially expected. Based on the degree of fiscal and monetary support, as well as the path to widespread immunization, has led to different recovery time frames by region, with developed markets recovering sooner than emerging markets.
This report does not constitute a rating action.
S&P Global Ratings is the world's leading provider of independent credit ratings. Our ratings are essential to driving growth, providing transparency and helping educate market participants so they can make decisions with confidence. We have more than 1 million credit ratings outstanding on government, corporate, financial sector and structured finance entities and securities. We offer an independent view of the market built on a unique combination of broad perspective and local insight. We provide our opinions and research about relative credit risk; market participants gain independent information to help support the growth of transparent, liquid debt markets worldwide.
S&P Global Ratings is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI), which provides essential intelligence for individuals, companies and governments to make decisions with confidence. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/ratings
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SOURCE S&P Global Ratings
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