Absolute Emissions From Canadian Oil Sands Are Set to Decline Within Next Few Years Even as Production Grows
S&P Global Commodity Insights releases a report indicating that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from Canadian oil sands are projected to decline by the mid-decade, despite an increase in production. The report, titled The Trajectory of Oil Sands GHG Emissions: 2009-2035, forecasts a 20-28% reduction in GHG intensity from 2020 to 2035. While immediate increases in absolute emissions are anticipated, advancements in technology and efficiency, particularly carbon capture and steam displacement technologies, are expected to significantly impact future emissions.
- Projected decline in GHG intensity by 20-28% from 2020 to 2035.
- Forecasted production growth of over 800,000 to 1.2 million barrels per day until 2035.
- Carbon capture and steam displacement technologies show potential for further emissions reduction.
- Short-term pressure on absolute emissions expected to rise before declines.
New S&P Global Commodity Insights report finds continuing efficiency improvements, as well as new technologies, are poised to overtake slowing production growth and result in absolute emission reduction by middle of this decade
Entitled The Trajectory of Oil Sands GHG Emissions: 2009-2035, the report by the S&P Global Oil Sands Dialogue says that long-term trends of reductions to the GHG intensity of oil sands production are set to reach an inflection point around 2025. Immediate pressure on absolute emissions to rise is expected in the short-term prior to that point. Absolute emissions are then expected to begin to decline from a level between 87-89 MMtCO2e, even as production rises by more than 600,000 barrels per day during the same period (2020 to 2025).
The findings of the report confirm a preliminary analysis from the same team released earlier this year.
“GHG intensity improvements do add up,” said
From 2020 to 2035, S&P Global Commodity Insights projects GHG intensity of the Canadian oil sands could decline from 20
Efficiency improvements, including higher facility utilization rates as well as the roll-out and ramp-up of newer, less GHG-intensive operations have been leading contributors to past intensity reductions. These factors are expected to continue to play a role in future. However, carbon capture and storage as well as what S&P Global Commodity Insights is calling steam displacement technologies have the potential to result in more dramatic reductions.
“Although it can take time to be developed, carbon capture and storage is a wildcard when we look at technologies that can really make a difference for large industrial scale emitters like in the oil sands,” Birn said. “Another wild card is the increasing use of what we are calling steam displacements technologies in thermal oil sands operations. This category of technologies can materially reduce the steam, and thus emissions required to produce a barrel of oil.”
Steam displacement technologies physically replace steam required per barrel with solvents, or noncondensable gas like methane. These technologies can have large implications for oil sands thermal extraction emissions and can even result in increased productivity.
“We were struck by the some of the success of steam displacement technologies occurring in the field,” Birn said. “They show great potential to influence future oil sands GHG emissions and even enhance the level of future production.
“This new S&P Global Commodity Insights analysis is arguably the most rigorous examination of oil sands GHG emissions to date and the findings that, even if current trends continue, absolute emissions are set to decline within the next few years are profound,” Birn said. “This may yet prove to be a conservative estimate with both industry and governments in
S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates that the announced ambition of Oil Sands Pathways to Netzero—a consortium of major oil sands producers representing more than
We are widely sought after by many of the world’s leading organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world’s leading organizations plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220405005311/en/
News Media:
+1 202 463 8213
Jeff.marn@spglobal.com
Source: