RXO Releases the Q1 Curve Freight Market Forecast
RXO, North America's third-largest freight brokerage, has released its Q1 2025 Curve Truckload Market Forecast. The Curve, a proprietary index measuring year-over-year changes in truckload linehaul spot rates, now benefits from enhanced datasets following RXO's acquisition of Coyote Logistics.
The Q4 Curve index revealed spot rates increased 11.6% year-over-year at the end of 2024, driven by seasonal holiday shipping and tightening truckload capacity. While operating in a prolonged soft freight market, contractual rates are trending upward with building momentum.
Market rate and coverage KPIs during the holidays reached levels not seen since Christmas 2022. Despite some moderation in Q1, the baseline has reset higher, indicating the market has moved past the bottom of the cycle. The Curve analysis utilizes thousands of daily shipments data spanning nearly 20 years to help logistics professionals validate their supply chain strategies.
RXO, il terzo più grande broker di trasporti del Nord America, ha pubblicato la sua previsione per il mercato dei carichi completi nel primo trimestre del 2025. Il Curve, un indice proprietario che misura le variazioni anno su anno delle tariffe spot per il trasporto di carichi completi, ora beneficia di set di dati migliorati a seguito dell'acquisizione di Coyote Logistics da parte di RXO.
L'indice Curve del quarto trimestre ha rivelato che le tariffe spot sono aumentate del 11,6% anno su anno alla fine del 2024, trainate dall'invio stagionale per le festività e dal restringimento della capacità di carico. Sebbene si operi in un mercato dei trasporti debole prolungato, le tariffe contrattuali stanno mostrando un trend al rialzo con una crescente spinta.
Durante le festività, i KPI delle tariffe di mercato e della copertura hanno raggiunto livelli non visti dalla Natale 2022. Nonostante una certa moderazione nel primo trimestre, la base è stata ripristinata a livelli più alti, indicando che il mercato ha superato il fondo del ciclo. L'analisi del Curve utilizza dati su migliaia di spedizioni quotidiane che coprono quasi 20 anni per aiutare i professionisti della logistica a convalidare le loro strategie di supply chain.
RXO, el tercer corredor de carga más grande de América del Norte, ha publicado su pronóstico del mercado de carga completa para el primer trimestre de 2025. El Curve, un índice propietario que mide los cambios interanuales en las tarifas spot de carga completa, ahora se beneficia de conjuntos de datos mejorados tras la adquisición de Coyote Logistics por parte de RXO.
El índice Curve del cuarto trimestre reveló que las tarifas spot aumentaron un 11.6% interanualmente a finales de 2024, impulsadas por el envío estacional durante las festividades y la reducción de la capacidad de carga. A pesar de operar en un mercado de carga débil prolongado, las tarifas contractuales están en tendencia ascendente con un impulso creciente.
Durante las festividades, los KPI de tarifas de mercado y cobertura alcanzaron niveles no vistos desde la Navidad de 2022. A pesar de cierta moderación en el primer trimestre, la base se ha reajustado a niveles más altos, lo que indica que el mercado ha superado el fondo del ciclo. El análisis del Curve utiliza datos de miles de envíos diarios que abarcan casi 20 años para ayudar a los profesionales de la logística a validar sus estrategias de cadena de suministro.
RXO, 북미에서 세 번째로 큰 화물 중개업체, 2025년 1분기 트럭 적재 시장 전망을 발표했습니다. Curve는 트럭 적재 스팟 요금의 연간 변화를 측정하는 독점 지수로, RXO가 Coyote Logistics를 인수한 후 향상된 데이터 세트를 통해 혜택을 보고 있습니다.
4분기 Curve 지수는 2024년 말에 스팟 요금이 전년 대비 11.6% 증가했음을 보여주었으며, 이는 시즌별 휴일 배송과 트럭 적재 용량의 축소에 의해 촉진되었습니다. 장기적인 약세 화물 시장에서 운영되고 있지만, 계약 요금은 상승세를 보이고 있으며 점점 더 힘을 얻고 있습니다.
휴일 동안 시장 요금 및 커버리지 KPI는 2022년 크리스마스 이후 보지 못한 수준에 도달했습니다. 1분기에 다소 완화가 있었음에도 불구하고, 기준선은 더 높은 수준으로 재설정되어 시장이 사이클의 바닥을 넘어섰음을 나타냅니다. Curve 분석은 거의 20년에 걸친 수천 개의 일일 배송 데이터를 활용하여 물류 전문가들이 공급망 전략을 검증할 수 있도록 돕습니다.
RXO, le troisième plus grand courtier en fret d'Amérique du Nord, a publié ses prévisions pour le marché des chargements complets au premier trimestre 2025. Le Curve, un indice propriétaire mesurant les variations annuelles des tarifs spot de chargement complet, bénéficie désormais de jeux de données améliorés suite à l'acquisition de Coyote Logistics par RXO.
L'indice Curve du quatrième trimestre a révélé que les tarifs spot ont augmenté de 11,6% d'une année sur l'autre à la fin de 2024, stimulés par les envois saisonniers des fêtes et le resserrement de la capacité de chargement. Bien que nous opérions dans un marché de fret faible prolongé, les tarifs contractuels montrent une tendance à la hausse avec un élan croissant.
Les KPI de tarifs de marché et de couverture pendant les fêtes ont atteint des niveaux jamais vus depuis Noël 2022. Malgré une certaine modération au premier trimestre, la base a été réinitialisée à des niveaux plus élevés, indiquant que le marché a dépassé le creux du cycle. L'analyse du Curve utilise des données de milliers d'expéditions quotidiennes couvrant près de 20 ans pour aider les professionnels de la logistique à valider leurs stratégies de chaîne d'approvisionnement.
RXO, der drittgrößte Frachtbroker in Nordamerika, hat seine Prognose für den Markt der Komplettladungen im ersten Quartal 2025 veröffentlicht. Der Curve, ein proprietärer Index zur Messung der jährlichen Veränderungen der Spotpreise für Komplettladungen, profitiert nun von verbesserten Datensätzen nach der Übernahme von Coyote Logistics durch RXO.
Der Curve-Index für das vierte Quartal zeigte, dass die Spotpreise zum Ende des Jahres 2024 um 11,6% im Jahresvergleich gestiegen sind, was durch saisonale Feiertagsversendungen und eine Verknappung der Kapazität für Komplettladungen bedingt ist. Obwohl wir uns in einem längeren schwachen Frachtmarkt befinden, zeigen die vertraglichen Preise einen Aufwärtstrend mit zunehmendem Momentum.
Die Marktpreise und Abdeckungs-KPIs während der Feiertage erreichten Niveaus, die seit Weihnachten 2022 nicht mehr gesehen wurden. Trotz einer gewissen Mäßigung im ersten Quartal ist die Basis höher zurückgesetzt worden, was darauf hinweist, dass der Markt den Tiefpunkt des Zyklus überschritten hat. Die Curve-Analyse nutzt Daten von Tausenden von täglichen Sendungen, die sich über fast 20 Jahre erstrecken, um Logistikprofis bei der Validierung ihrer Supply-Chain-Strategien zu unterstützen.
- Spot rates increased 11.6% year-over-year in Q4 2024
- Market indicators suggest recovery from cycle bottom
- Enhanced data capabilities following Coyote Logistics acquisition
- Position as third-largest freight brokerage in North America
- Continued operation in prolonged soft freight market
- Q1 moderation from holiday season peaks
The Curve, originally published in 2018, is a proprietary index that measures the year-over-year rate of change in truckload linehaul spot rates, exclusive of fuel. By using thousands of daily shipments spanning nearly 20 years, the Curve gauges truckload cycles as the balance of carrier supply and shipper demand shifts in a dynamic, fragmented marketplace. Logistics professionals have come to rely on quarterly Curve updates to validate their own supply chain strategies.
"The Curve has been a leading index for years — now, as a combined organization, it’s going to become even more robust. As the third-largest freight brokerage in
The Q1 Curve update — which recaps fourth-quarter performance, covers macroeconomic indicators and trends driving the truckload market and provides a first-quarter freight market forecast — shows a truckload market on the rise, as rates again head higher year-over-year.
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The Q4 Curve index showed spot rates up
11.6% year-over-year at the end of 2024. - The increase was driven by a combination of seasonal holiday shipping amidst tightening truckload capacity and favorable year-over-year comparisons.
- While we are still operating in a prolonged soft freight market, contractual rates are moving higher and momentum is building.
"Over the holidays, we saw market rate and coverage KPIs reach levels we haven’t hit since Christmas 2022. While we have seen some of those gains moderate through the first quarter to date, the baseline has reset higher,” said Corey Klujsza, vice president of pricing and procurement at RXO. “Though the rest of 2025 may not look like the peak in the COVID-era truckload market, we’re seeing continued signs that we’re past the bottom of the cycle.”
The Curve exemplifies RXO’s commitment to providing market-based, data-driven insights that help shippers and carriers navigate the dynamic truckload market. To read the full Q1 Curve report, visit rxo.com/resources/research/us-truckload-market-guide.
About RXO
RXO (NYSE: RXO) is a leading provider of asset-light transportation solutions. RXO offers tech-enabled truck brokerage services together with complementary solutions including managed transportation and last mile delivery. The company combines massive capacity and cutting-edge technology to move freight efficiently through supply chains across
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250224011033/en/
Media Contact
Nina Reinhardt
nina.reinhardt@rxo.com
Investor Contact
Kevin Sterling
kevin.sterling@rxo.com
Source: RXO
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