Redfin Reports Typical Monthly Housing Payment Drops to $115 Below Record As Mortgage Rates Decline, But House Hunters Are Still Waiting on the Sidelines

Rhea-AI Summary

Redfin reports that the typical U.S. homebuyer's monthly housing payment has dropped to $2,722, which is $115 lower than April's all-time high. This decrease comes despite home prices being just about $100 shy of last week's record high. The decline in payments is attributed to falling mortgage rates, which have reached their lowest level since February following a cooler-than-expected inflation report.

Despite this positive news for buyers, pending home sales have declined by 5.6% year-over-year, marking the biggest drop in eight months. The Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index is down 15%, indicating that buyers are still hesitant. Some are waiting for further rate decreases, while others are deterred by extreme heat in certain regions. However, rising supply offers hope, with new listings up 6.4% year-over-year and total listings near their highest level in almost four years.

Positive

• Monthly housing payment decreased by $115 from April's all-time high
• Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level since February
• New listings increased by 6.4% year-over-year
• Total number of listings near highest level in almost four years
• Homebuyers gained about $25,000 in purchasing power since April

Negative

• Pending sales down 5.6% year-over-year, biggest decline in 8 months
• Redfin's Homebuyer Demand Index down 15% year-over-year
• Mortgage-purchase applications down 3% week-over-week
• Home prices still near record high, only $100 below last week's peak

Insights

Financial Analyst

The report on the recent trends in the housing market reveals several important insights for investors. Firstly, the drop in mortgage rates to their lowest level since February is noteworthy. This decline, influenced by cooling inflation, provides prospective homebuyers with increased purchasing power. For instance, a buyer can now afford a $450,000 home with a $3,000 monthly budget at a 6.8% mortgage rate, compared to $425,000 at a 7.5% rate earlier this year. This theoretically should stimulate demand, but pending sales have declined by 5.6%, indicating that buyers are still hesitant.

Moreover, the increase in new listings by 6.4% year-over-year suggests that sellers are becoming more active, likely due to impatience with waiting for further rate drops. However, despite the increased inventory, buyer activity has not surged, as seen by the 15% drop in Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index. This discrepancy between supply and demand may lead to more favorable terms for buyers in the short term, such as negotiating discounts.

Market Research Analyst

The housing market's current state presents a mixed bag for stakeholders. The increase in supply with new listings up 6.4% and total active listings nearing a four-year high indicates a more balanced market. However, despite the favorable conditions for buyers, such as declining mortgage rates and more options, demand as measured by pending sales, Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index and mortgage-purchase applications has decreased. This suggests that external factors like economic uncertainty or consumer confidence are significantly influencing buyer behavior.

It's interesting to note that some buyers may be strategically waiting for further mortgage rate declines, hoping the Fed's anticipated rate cuts will translate to even lower mortgage rates. This waiting game could dampen current market activity but might lead to a surge in demand if rates do drop more significantly later. In the meantime, the current period could be seen as advantageous for serious buyers, who now have more room for negotiation as many listings become stale.

Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level since February after the latest CPI report showed inflation cooling. Still, pending home sales posted their biggest decline in eight months

SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- (NASDAQ: RDFN) — The typical U.S. homebuyer’s monthly housing payment was $2,722 during the four weeks ending July 14, $115 lower than April’s all-time high, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. That’s despite home prices sitting just about $100 shy of last week’s record high.

Daily average mortgage rates have dropped to their lowest level since February after last week’s cooler-than-expected inflation report, bringing homebuyers a bit of relief.

A homebuyer on a $3,000 monthly budget can afford a $450,000 home with a 6.8% mortgage rate, roughly the daily average as of July 17. That buyer has gained about $25,000 in purchasing power since rates hit a five-month peak in April, when they could have bought a $425,000 home with a 7.5% rate.

Rising supply is another piece of promising news for homebuyers, with new listings up 6.4% year over year and the total number of listings near its highest level in almost four years. More homeowners are selling because they’re tired of waiting for rates to drop significantly; it has been more than two years since they started rising from pandemic-era lows.

Buyers have yet to react strongly to falling rates and increasing inventory. Pending sales are down 5.6% year over year, the biggest decline in eight months, and Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index—a measure of requests for tours and other buying services from Redfin agents—is down 15%. Mortgage-purchase applications are down 3% week over week on a seasonally adjusted basis. That’s despite mortgage rates falling year over year; the 6.83% daily average as of July 17 is down from 6.9% a year ago. Some buyers are sitting on the sidelines because they’re hoping mortgage rates will decline more.

“Now that it’s looking increasingly likely the Fed will cut interest rates by the end of the year, some house hunters believe mortgage rates will fall more and are waiting for that to happen before they buy,” said Chen Zhao, Redfin’s economic research lead. “But they may be waiting in vain; it’s unlikely mortgage rates will drop much lower in the next few months, as markets are already pricing in the expectation of a rate cut in September, followed by several more at the end of 2024 and into 2025. In fact, now may be the right time for house hunters to get serious about making offers before prices increase even more and they lose some power. Plus, there are more homes to choose from, and many listings are growing stale, giving buyers an opportunity to negotiate.”

Another reason for slow demand is extreme heat in some parts of the country preventing house hunters from touring. Nashville, TN Redfin Premier agent Kristin Sanchez said: “Severe heat waves are making people feel pretty much locked in their houses. They don’t want to come out to see homes because it’s miserable outside; open houses haven’t been getting much traffic.”

For more on Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.

Leading indicators

Indicators of homebuying demand and activity
	Value (if applicable)	Recent change	Year-over-year change	Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.83% (July 17)	Lowest level since February; down from 7.14% 2 weeks earlier	Down from 6.9%	Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.89% (week ending July 11)	Down from 6.95% a week earlier	Down from 6.96%	Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)		Decreased 3% from a week earlier (as of week ending July 12)	Down 14%	Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)		Up 3% from a month earlier (as of week ending July 14)	Down 15%	Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents
Touring activity		Up 26 from the start of the year (as of July 14)	At this time last year, it was up 19% from the start of 2023	ShowingTime, a home touring technology company
Google searches for “home for sale”		Up 4% from a month earlier (as of July 15)	Down 20%	Google Trends

Key housing-market data

U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending July 14, 2024 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.
	Four weeks ending July 14, 2024	Year-over-year change	Notes
Median sale price	$396,379	4.4%	Just about $100 shy of last week’s all-time high
Median asking price	$404,998	5.2%
Median monthly mortgage payment	$2,722 at a 6.89% mortgage rate	6.1%	$115 below all-time high set during the 4 weeks ending April 28
Pending sales	81,297	-5.6%	Biggest decline in 8 months
New listings	93,676	6.4%
Active listings	977,230	18.4%	Smallest increase in 3 months
Months of supply	3.6	+0.7 pts.	4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions
Share of homes off market in two weeks	39.1%	Down from 44%
Median days on market	32	+4 days
Share of homes sold above list price	31.6%	Down from 36%
Share of homes with a price drop	6.7%	+1.8 pts.	Highest level on record
Average sale-to-list price ratio	99.5%	-0.5 pts.

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending July 14, 2024 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.
	Metros with biggest year-over-year increases	Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases	Notes
Median sale price	Detroit (16.3%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (14.4%) West Palm Beach, FL (13.9%) Providence, RI (13.4%) New Brunswick, NJ (12.3%)	Dallas (-2.3%) Austin, TX (-2.1%)	Declined in 2 metros
Pending sales	San Jose, CA (9.6%) San Francisco (7.1%) Boston (4.5%) Newark, NJ (3.5%) Cincinnati, OH (2.4%)	Houston (-24.4%) West Palm Beach, FL (-16.9%) Minneapolis (-16.2%) Virginia Beach, VA (-13.4%) Atlanta (-12.9%)	Increased in 7 metros
New listings	San Jose, CA (30.3%) Las Vegas (19.7%) Miami (18.9%) Jacksonville, FL (17.4%) Seattle (15.6%)	Atlanta (-13.1%) Houston (-6.6%) Warren, MI (-5.1%) Detroit (-4.5%) Minneapolis (-3.2%)	Declined in 8 metros

To view the full report, including charts, methodology and metro-level data, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-housing-payments-mortgage-rates-decline

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.

Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and WalkScore®.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240718406458/en/

Redfin Journalist Services:

Kenneth Applewhaite

press@redfin.com

Source: Redfin

FAQ

What is the current typical monthly housing payment for U.S. homebuyers according to Redfin (RDFN)?

According to Redfin's report, the typical U.S. homebuyer's monthly housing payment was $2,722 during the four weeks ending July 14, 2023.

How much has the typical monthly housing payment decreased from its all-time high for Redfin (RDFN)?

The typical monthly housing payment has decreased by $115 from April's all-time high, as reported by Redfin.

What is the year-over-year change in pending home sales reported by Redfin (RDFN)?

Redfin reports that pending home sales are down 5.6% year-over-year, which is the biggest decline in eight months.

How have new listings changed year-over-year according to Redfin's (RDFN) latest report?

According to Redfin's report, new listings have increased by 6.4% year-over-year.

What is the current state of Redfin's (RDFN) Homebuyer Demand Index?

Redfin's Homebuyer Demand Index, which measures requests for tours and other buying services from Redfin agents, is down 15% year-over-year.