Redfin Reports Pending Home Sales Are Down 6%, But Falling Mortgage Rates Are Starting to Attract Buyers

Rhea-AI Summary

Redfin (NASDAQ: RDFN) reports a 6.4% year-over-year decline in pending U.S. home sales for the four weeks ending March 2, marking the second-largest drop since November 2023. The slowdown is attributed to a 3.2% increase in median sale prices and near-record-high monthly housing payments.

Despite the overall decline, Southern California shows positive momentum, with Los Angeles leading major U.S. metros with an 8.5% increase in pending sales. Other California markets, including Anaheim (6.3%), Riverside (1.3%), and Sacramento (0.4%), also experienced growth.

The market is seeing some positive signals as mortgage rates reached their lowest level in nearly three months at 6.7%, spurring a 9% week-over-week increase in mortgage-purchase applications. New listings have surged in several markets, with Phoenix leading at 27.1% growth, followed by Sacramento (27%), Anaheim (20.1%), Los Angeles (20.1%), and San Diego (17.5%).

Positive

• Mortgage rates dropped to 6.7%, lowest in 3 months
• Mortgage-purchase applications increased 9% week-over-week
• Los Angeles pending sales up 8.5% year-over-year
• New listings increased significantly in multiple markets (up to 27.1%)

Negative

• Pending home sales declined 6.4% year-over-year
• Median U.S. sale price increased 3.2%
• Monthly housing payments near all-time high
• Economic uncertainty affecting buyer confidence

Insights

Real Estate Market Analyst

The 6.4% year-over-year decline in pending home sales represents a significant headwind for Redfin's transaction volume, likely impacting near-term revenue performance. This marks the second-largest drop since November 2023, occurring during what should be the beginning of the spring buying season—traditionally the strongest period for real estate companies.

While national trends appear weak, Redfin is benefiting from counter-cyclical strength in Southern California, with pending sales increasing in Los Angeles (8.5%), Anaheim (6.3%), and Riverside (1.3%). These markets typically feature higher-priced homes, potentially offsetting some transaction volume weakness with higher-value commissions.

The $26 gap between current monthly housing payments and their all-time high underscores persistent affordability challenges despite the recent mortgage rate improvement to 6.7%. The 9% week-over-week increase in mortgage applications signals potential near-term improvement, though this leading indicator typically takes weeks to translate into completed transactions.

For Redfin specifically, this mixed market presents operational challenges—the company must manage resources efficiently in declining markets while capitalizing on growth opportunities in stronger regions. The wildfire-related insurance complications mentioned in Southern California could introduce friction in otherwise strong markets, potentially limiting transaction growth despite rising demand.

The 3.2% increase in median sale prices provides some revenue buffer against transaction volume declines, but Redfin's dominantly transaction-based business model remains vulnerable to continued sales weakness if economic uncertainty persists.

Mortgage rates dipped to their lowest level in nearly three months this week, which has pushed mortgage-purchase applications up. But pending home sales are still falling. Southern California is bucking the trend, with pending sales increasing.

SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- (NASDAQ: RDFN) — Pending U.S. home sales fell 6.4% from a year earlier during the four weeks ending March 2, the second-biggest decline since November 2023. That’s according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.

Sales are sluggish because the median U.S. sale price is up 3.2%, and the typical homebuyer’s monthly housing payment is just $26 shy of its all-time high. Plus, some prospective buyers are wary about making a big purchase amid economic uncertainty, including concerns about tariffs, slowing economic growth and layoffs.

But homebuyers have gotten some relief in the past week, as the daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dipped to 6.7%, the lowest level in nearly three months. That seems to have brought some people off the sidelines: mortgage-purchase applications rose 9% week over week.

In Southern California, Pending Sales Are Rising

The housing market looks different in different metro areas. In parts of California, for instance, sales and listings are rising. Pending sales increased in just six major U.S. metros this week, four of them in California. In Los Angeles, pending sales rose 8.5% year over year, the biggest increase among the major U.S. metros. It’s followed by Anaheim (6.3%), Phoenix (3%), Riverside (1.3%), Columbus, OH (1.1%) and Sacramento (0.4%).

On the selling side, California is home to four of the five biggest year-over-year upticks in new listings. First comes Phoenix, where listings are up 27.1%, followed by Sacramento (27%), Anaheim (20.1%), Los Angeles (20.1%) and San Diego (17.5%).

The Los Angeles market is picking up in the aftermath of January’s devastating wildfires, which destroyed thousands of homes. Some of the people displaced by the fires are buying new homes, some other buyers are jumping back into the market after pressing pause amid the fires, and some homeowners are selling to meet demand.

“Prices are up, homes are selling rapidly and overall, the housing market is strong,” said Sam Najarian, a Redfin Premier agent in Los Angeles. “That was true before the wildfires, and it’s true now. The fires have made it tough to get insurance and they’re causing buyers to look away from the hills, but the spring homebuying season is definitely underway in the rest of Los Angeles. Some listings are getting lots of offers, and the best ones are going for $200,000 or $300,000 over asking price.”

Najarian added that in the wake of the Eaton and Palisades fires, homebuyers should be diligent about insurance. If a home is deemed high risk because of proximity to a fire zone, buyers may have a hard time finding or affording homeowners insurance—and they should be aware premiums may rise more in a fire zone. Some house hunters are shifting their search from Altadena, which was hit hard by the Eaton fire, to Pasadena or other neighboring cities that have less stringent insurance regulations.

For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.

Leading indicators

Indicators of homebuying demand and activity
	Value (if applicable)	Recent change	Year-over-year change	Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.72% (March 5)	Near lowest level since Dec. 6	Down from 7.09%	Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.76% (week ending Feb. 27)	Lowest level since mid-December	Down from 6.94%	Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)		Up 9% from a week earlier (as of week ending Feb. 28)	Up 2%	Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)		Up 3% from a month earlier (as of week ending March 2)	Down 3%	Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents
Touring activity		Up 25% from the start of the year (as of March 2)	At this time last year, it was up 24% from the start of 2024	ShowingTime, a home touring technology company
Google searches for “home for sale”		Up over 20% from a month earlier (as of March 2)	Unchanged	Google Trends

Key housing-market data

U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending March 2, 2025 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and are based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.
	Four weeks ending March 2, 2025	Year-over-year change	Notes
Median sale price	$379,350	3.2%	Smallest increase since September
Median asking price	$417,250	6.4%
Median monthly mortgage payment	$2,772 at a 6.76% mortgage rate	5.3%	$26 shy of all-time high
Pending sales	75,172	-6.4%	Biggest decline in over a year, except the 4 weeks ending Jan. 19 and the 4 weeks ending Jan. 26, which both posted 6.6% declines
New listings	84,464	2.4%
Active listings	918,795	9.8%	Smallest increase in a year
Months of supply	4.4	+0.6 pts.	4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions
Share of homes off market in two weeks	33.4%	Down from 38%
Median days on market	55	+8 days; near longest span since March 2020
Share of homes sold above list price	22.4%	Down from 24%
Average sale-to-list price ratio	98.2%	Down from 98.5%

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending March 2, 2025 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.
	Metros with biggest year-over-year increases	Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases	Notes
Median sale price	Milwaukee (16.2%) Nassau County, NY (12%) Cleveland (10.7%) Pittsburgh (9.4%) Anaheim, CA (9.3%)	Austin, TX (-4%) Tampa, FL (-1.3%) Atlanta (-1.3%) Jacksonville, FL (-1.2%) San Antonio (-1%) Houston (-0.6%) Fort Worth, TX (-0.2%)	Declined in 7 metros
Pending sales	Los Angeles (8.5%) Anaheim, CA (6.3%) Phoenix (3%) Riverside, CA (1.3%) Columbus, OH (1.1%) Sacramento, CA (0.4%)	Atlanta (-16.3%) Miami (-16.2%) Houston (-15%) Jacksonville, FL (-14.5%) Minneapolis (-13.6%)	Increased in 6 metros
New listings	Phoenix (27.1%) Sacramento, CA (27%) Anaheim, CA (20.1%) Los Angeles (20.1%) San Diego (20.1%)	Detroit (-20.7%) Warren, MI (-12.1%) Fort Worth, TX (-11.1%) Portland, OR (-10.8%) Newark, NJ (-10.3%)	Increased in roughly half the metros

To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-pending-sales-falling-mortgage-applications-rising

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, and title insurance services. We run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1.8 billion in commissions. We serve approximately 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.

Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and WalkScore®.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250306884138/en/

Contact Redfin

Redfin Journalist Services:

Tana Kelley

press@redfin.com

Source: Redfin

FAQ

What caused the 6.4% decline in pending home sales according to Redfin (RDFN)?

High median sale prices (up 3.2%), near-record monthly housing payments, and economic uncertainty including concerns about tariffs, slowing growth, and layoffs.

How much did mortgage-purchase applications increase after rates dropped to 6.7%?

Mortgage-purchase applications rose 9% week over week as rates hit their lowest level in nearly three months.

Which cities showed the highest increase in pending home sales according to RDFN?

Los Angeles led with 8.5%, followed by Anaheim (6.3%), Phoenix (3%), Riverside (1.3%), Columbus (1.1%), and Sacramento (0.4%).

What was the year-over-year increase in new listings for top performing markets?

Phoenix led with 27.1%, followed by Sacramento (27%), Anaheim (20.1%), Los Angeles (20.1%), and San Diego (17.5%).