Redfin Reports Listings and Sales Stumble as Sellers and Buyers Take Easter Break

Rhea-AI Summary

Redfin (RDFN) reports a modest 8.4% increase in new listings of U.S. homes for sale, potentially signaling a shift in housing market dynamics.

Insights

Real Estate Market Analyst

With new listings of U.S. homes increasing by 8.4% compared to the previous year, there is an indication of a potential shift in the housing market dynamics. This uptick suggests that sellers are becoming more active, possibly in anticipation of a market correction. Historically, a rise in supply can lead to a moderation in housing costs if demand doesn't keep pace. Despite the increase in listings, the high housing costs remain a barrier for many potential buyers.

The real estate market is sensitive to a variety of factors, including interest rates, economic confidence and inventory levels. Given the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate hikes, borrowing costs have escalated, which typically cools down demand. This cooling effect could be a contributing factor to the anticipated decrease in housing costs. On the flip side, if demand remains resilient due to factors like low unemployment and wage growth, prices may not adjust as significantly as some buyers hope.

Economist

From an economic standpoint, the housing market is a critical component of the overall economy, influencing consumer spending and investment. The current high housing costs are not only a barrier to homebuyers but also have broader economic implications. For instance, higher housing costs can lead to decreased disposable income for homeowners and renters, potentially reducing consumer spending in other areas.

Additionally, the housing market often reflects broader economic trends. If economists at Redfin are predicting a decrease in housing costs, this could be based on macroeconomic indicators such as slowing GDP growth or an expected downturn. Such a prediction may also indicate an anticipated shift in monetary policy, which could lead to lower interest rates and increased affordability in the long run. However, the timing and extent of these changes are uncertain and hinge on future economic developments.

Financial Analyst

For investors and stakeholders in the real estate sector, including those with interests in companies like Redfin, the potential for decreasing housing costs can have mixed implications. On one hand, lower prices could lead to increased transaction volumes as affordability improves, benefiting real estate platforms and service providers. On the other hand, the value of real estate assets on balance sheets may decline and profit margins could be squeezed if price reductions are steep.

It's also important to consider the impact on mortgage lenders and the construction industry. A decrease in housing costs might result in a lower loan-to-value ratio on new mortgages, affecting lenders' risk profiles. Meanwhile, the construction sector could see a slowdown in new projects if profit expectations diminish. Investors should monitor these developments closely, as they could have significant implications for stock performance in the real estate and related sectors.

Housing costs remain stubbornly high, deterring some buyers–but Redfin economists say costs could come down soon

SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- (NASDAQ: RDFN) —New listings of U.S. homes for sale rose 8.4% from a year earlier during the four weeks ending March 31, the smallest increase in about seven weeks, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.

What sellers are doing: Year-over-year growth in new listings slowed because some sellers took a break over Easter, which fell over a week earlier in 2024 than in 2023. The slowdown is likely an Easter blip, but Redfin will be keeping a close eye on selling data over the next few weeks to confirm it’s not the start of a larger trend.

What buyers are doing: Homebuying demand was relatively soft this week, too. Home tours were up 15% from the start of the year, compared to a 21% increase at this time last year, and mortgage-purchase applications were flat this week. Pending home sales fell 2.8% from a year ago, and they posted an unseasonal decline during the last week of March. Some would-be buyers took a break from touring offers and making offers over Easter, and others are shying away due to high housing costs.

And what about prices? The median U.S. home-sale price was $376,223, up 4.7% from a year earlier. Median monthly housing payments were just $13 shy of the all-time high hit last October, when home prices were lower but mortgage rates were nearing 8%, versus just under 7% this week.

“Buyers may get a break on housing costs in the coming months,” said Redfin Economic Research Lead Chen Zhao. “Daily average mortgage rates rose this week because of some disappointing economic news. But if the upcoming job and inflation reports show that the economy is heading in the right direction, the Fed is likely to confirm they will cut interest rates in June, which would lower mortgage rates. Home-price growth could soften as spring goes on if new listings regain the momentum we saw before Easter.”

For more of Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, including how current financial events are impacting mortgage rates, please visit our “From Our Economists” page.

Leading indicators

Indicators of homebuying demand and activity
	Value (if applicable)	Recent change	Year-over-year change	Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	7.07% (April 3)	Up from 6.91% a week earlier	Up from 6.44%	Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.79% (week ending March 28)	Down from 6.87% a week earlier	Up from 6.32%	Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)		Essentially unchanged from a week earlier (as of week ending April 3)	Down 13%	Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)		Essentially unchanged from a month earlier (as of week ending March 31)	Down 11%	Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents
Touring activity		Up 15% from the start of the year (as of April 2)	At this time last year, it was up 21% from the start of 2023 (last year’s increase was bigger partly because Easter fell on March 31 this year, and a week later in 2024)	ShowingTime, a home touring technology company
Google searches for “home for sale”		Down 4% from a month earlier (as of April 1)	Down 13%	Google Trends

Key housing-market data

U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending March 31, 2024 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.
	Four weeks ending March 31, 2024	Year-over-year change	Notes
Median sale price	$376,223	4.7%
Median asking price	$404,925	4.9%
Median monthly mortgage payment	$2,700 at a 6.79% mortgage rate	9.3%	$13 shy of record high hit in October 2023
Pending sales	85,217	-2.8%
New listings	88,631	8.4%
Active listings	812,460	6.9%
Months of supply	3.3 months	+0.4 pts.	4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions
Share of homes off market in two weeks	43%	Essentially unchanged
Median days on market	39	-1 day
Share of homes sold above list price	27.6%	Up from 27%
Share of homes with a price drop	5.6%	+1.2 pts.
Average sale-to-list price ratio	99%	+0.3 pts.

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending March 31, 2024 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.
	Metros with biggest year-over-year increases	Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases	Notes
Median sale price	West Palm Beach, FL (19.1%) Anaheim, CA (18%) San Jose, CA (15.9%) Providence, RI (14.3%) Miami (14%)	San Antonio, TX (-0.3%)	Declined in just 1 metro
Pending sales	San Jose, CA (30.5%) San Francisco (24.9%) Anaheim, CA (8.8%) Seattle (6.8%) Milwaukee (5.2%)	Atlanta (-15.9%) West Palm Beach, FL (-14.8%) Houston (-13.3%) San Antonio, TX (-12.5%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (-10.5%)	Increased in 16 metros
New listings	San Jose, CA (41.3%) Phoenix (30.2%) Sacramento, CA (25.4%) Jacksonville, FL (23.6%) Austin, TX (21.1%)	Atlanta (-9.6%) Newark, NJ (-8.9%) Boston (-8.3%) Chicago (-8%) Milwaukee, WI (-6%)	Declined in 13 metros

To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-listings-sales-stumble-easter-effect

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.

Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and WalkScore®.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240404300731/en/

Redfin Journalist Services:

Kenneth Applewhaite, 206-414-8880

press@redfin.com

Source: Redfin

FAQ

What was the percentage increase in new listings of U.S. homes for sale according to Redfin's report?

Redfin reported an 8.4% increase in new listings of U.S. homes for sale compared to the previous year.

When did the four-week period ending March 31 show this increase in new listings of U.S. homes for sale?

The four-week period ending March 31 displayed the 8.4% rise in new listings of U.S. homes for sale.

What impact could the rise in new listings have on the housing market according to Redfin economists?

Redfin economists suggest that the increase in new listings could potentially lead to a decrease in housing costs in the near future.