Redfin Reports Florida and Texas Are Gaining Residents at a Much Slower Rate Than They Used to, Eating Into Homebuyer Demand

Rhea-AI Summary

Redfin (NASDAQ: RDFN) reports a significant slowdown in domestic migration to Florida, Texas, and other Sun Belt regions in 2024. Tampa experienced the most dramatic decrease, with net inflow dropping to 10,000 residents from 35,000 the previous year. Dallas followed with a decline to 13,000 from 35,000, while Atlanta shifted to a net outflow of 2,000 residents.

Key factors driving this trend include:

• Rising housing costs narrowing the affordability gap between Sun Belt and traditional expensive cities
• Increasing natural disasters and insurance costs in Florida and Texas
• Return to office mandates limiting relocation flexibility
• Competition from more affordable Midwest and Northeast regions

Conversely, major coastal job centers like New York and Los Angeles are seeing improved retention, with smaller net outflows compared to previous years. This shift is impacting housing markets, with some Sun Belt areas experiencing price stagnation due to surplus housing supply and decreased demand.

Positive

• Improved retention in major coastal cities indicates market stabilization
• Sacramento shifted from net outflow (-12,384) to net inflow (577) in 2024
• Some markets like Chicago and Seattle are experiencing regular bidding wars

Negative

• Significant migration slowdown in key Sun Belt markets (Tampa -70%, Dallas -63%)
• Atlanta shifted from +16,663 net inflow to -1,803 net outflow
• Rising insurance costs and natural disasters deterring new residents
• Housing surplus in Florida and Texas leading to decreased demand

The rising cost of housing and the increasing frequency of natural disasters are slowing migration to certain Florida and Texas metros

SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- (NASDAQ: RDFN) — The flow of U.S. residents moving into Florida, Texas and other parts of the Sun Belt slowed significantly in 2024, according to a new report from Redfin (www.redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.

Tampa had a net inflow of just over 10,000 residents in 2024, less than one-third the 35,000-person net inflow the year before, marking the biggest slowdown in domestic migration of the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Net inflow is how many more U.S. residents move into a metro area than move out; it includes domestic moves only.

Dallas saw the next-biggest slowdown, with a net inflow of roughly 13,000 residents in 2024, down from 35,000 the year before. Next comes Atlanta, which had a net outflow of nearly 2,000 in 2024, meaning 2,000 more U.S. residents moved out of the metro than in. That’s compared to a net inflow of 17,000 the year before.

Next came Houston, Miami, Orlando, Fort Lauderdale, San Antonio, Fort Worth and Austin.

Top 10 metro areas where net domestic migration fell most in 2024 Net domestic migration = the difference between the number of U.S. residents moving into a metro area and the number moving out of that same metro area
U.S. metro area	Change in net domestic migration: 2023 to 2024	Net domestic migration: 2024	Net domestic migration: 2023
Tampa, FL	-24,376	10,544	34,920
Dallas, TX	-22,302	12,927	35,229
Atlanta, GA	-18,466	-1,803	16,663
Houston, TX	-18,221	21,240	39,461
Miami, FL	-16,781	-67,418	-50,637
Orlando, FL	-15,578	779	16,357
Fort Lauderdale, FL	-11,464	-26,339	-14,875
San Antonio, TX	-11,122	18,981	30,103
Fort Worth, TX	-9,557	11,623	21,180
Austin, TX	-8,239	13,980	22,219

There are several reasons migration to the Sun Belt is slowing, particularly in Florida and Texas:

• Rising cost of living. Places like Tampa, Dallas and Austin were once seen as affordable alternatives to high-cost cities like San Francisco and New York, but now the gap in housing costs between big-city job centers and Sun Belt metros has shrunk.
• Natural disasters, high insurance costs make it less appealing to live in Florida. Moving to Florida is less attractive than it used to be because of the increasing frequency and intensity of climate disasters, like hurricanes. That has also resulted in skyrocketing insurance premiums and HOA fees, which exacerbates the rising cost of housing. The trend is similar in Texas.
• In-office work. Now that many companies are requiring workers to come into the office, fewer people have the freedom to move—and some people who moved to the Sun Belt during the pandemic are returning to big cities.
• Competition from more affordable places. Those who are able to relocate may be considering other parts of the country, like the Midwest or the Northeast, because they’re more affordable than the Sun Belt and less prone to natural disasters. Minneapolis and Indianapolis, where median home-sale and rent prices are lower than they are in places like Miami or Austin, are among the metro areas that saw migration rise in 2024.
• High cost of moving, economic uncertainty. Home sales were slow across the U.S. in 2024 due to high mortgage rates, high sale prices and widespread economic uncertainty about inflation and layoffs. Many Americans chose to stay put rather than take on the financial risk of a major move.

“People used to move to Florida partly because they could get a deal. Now, people can’t afford to move here,” said Bryan Carnaggio, a Redfin Premier agent in Florida. “The first questions from out-of-staters are, ‘How bad are the hurricanes? How high are insurance rates?’”

The rising cost of housing is one factor in slowing migration to the Sun Belt, and slowing migration is now one factor pushing homebuying demand down in those areas.

In some of the places where migration is slowing most, sale prices are either falling or they’re flat. That’s due partly to the pandemic construction boom and surging supply in Florida and Texas. There’s now a surplus of homes and apartments in parts of those states, and slowing migration—along with locals being priced out—means there are fewer people to buy them, which is one reason demand feels slow.

Fewer people are moving out of expensive coastal job centers

On the flip side, fewer U.S. residents are leaving big-city job centers like New York City and Los Angeles.

New York saw its net outflow shrink more than any other metro. Nearly 120,000 more residents moved out of New York City than into it in 2024, but that’s compared to a net outflow of about 153,000 residents the year before. Net outflow is how many more U.S. residents move out of a metro area than move in.

Next comes Los Angeles, with a net outflow of 100,000 in 2024—but that’s compared to a net outflow of 121,000 the year before. In Washington, D.C., 16,000 more residents left than moved in, down from a net outflow of 36,000 the year before. Rounding out the top 10 are Chicago, Anaheim, CA, Philadelphia, Sacramento, Seattle, Nassau County, NY (Long Island) and Boston.

Top 10 metro areas where net domestic migration improved most in 2024 Net domestic migration = the difference between the number of U.S. residents moving into a metro area and the number moving out of that same metro area
U.S. metro area	Change in net domestic migration: 2023 to 2024	Net domestic migration: 2024	Net domestic migration: 2023
New York, NY	33,742	-119,198	-152,940
Los Angeles, CA	20,673	-99,979	-120,652
Washington, DC	20,092	-15,989	-36,081
Chicago, IL	19,836	-42,844	-62,680
Anaheim, CA	13,668	-22,370	-36,038
Philadelphia, PA	13,654	-17,366	-31,020
Sacramento, CA	12,961	577	-12,384
Seattle, WA	11,720	-12,434	-24,154
Nassau County, NY	10,579	-10,894	-21,473
Boston, MA	10,056	-24,582	-34,638

Nine of the 10 aforementioned metros lost residents to other metros in 2024, but they lost fewer residents than the year before. Sacramento is the only metro on this list with a net inflow: About 600 more people moved into the California capital than out in 2024, compared to an outflow of more than 12,000 the year before.

These metro areas are losing fewer residents than they used to for some of the same reasons outlined in the section above. One, moving out of expensive cities is less attractive because the affordability gap between a place like Los Angeles and a place like Austin has narrowed. Two, remote work is less prevalent, meaning more people need to live close to their office.

In many of the metro areas where net outflow is slowing most, homebuying demand is holding steady—at least for fairly priced, move-in ready homes. Redfin agents in Chicago and Seattle, for instance, say they are seeing bidding wars on a regular basis.

To view the full report, including methodology and a full metro-level summary, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/slowing-migration-florida-texas-2024/

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, and title insurance services. We run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1.8 billion in commissions. We serve approximately 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.

Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and WalkScore®.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250416099454/en/

Contact Redfin

Redfin Journalist Services:

Isabelle Novak

press@redfin.com

Source: Redfin

FAQ

How much did Tampa's population inflow decrease in 2024 according to Redfin (RDFN)?

Tampa's net inflow decreased by 24,376 people, dropping from 34,920 in 2023 to just 10,544 in 2024.

What are the main reasons for slowing migration to Florida and Texas in 2024?

Key reasons include rising housing costs, increasing natural disasters, higher insurance premiums, return-to-office mandates, and competition from more affordable regions like the Midwest.

Which major cities saw the biggest improvement in resident retention in 2024?

New York saw the biggest improvement, reducing its net outflow by 33,742 residents, followed by Los Angeles with 20,673 fewer departures compared to 2023.

How is the slowing migration affecting Sun Belt housing markets according to RDFN?

The slowdown is pushing housing demand down in Sun Belt areas, leading to flat or falling sale prices, particularly due to surplus housing supply from pandemic-era construction.