Redfin Reports Home Sales Slumped 35% in November, the Biggest Decline on Record

Rhea-AI Summary

Redfin reported a significant slowdown in the housing market for November 2022, with home sales falling 35.1% year-over-year, marking the steepest decline since 2012. The median home sale price rose only 2.6%, the lowest increase since May 2020. New listings dropped 28.4% year-over-year, while overall supply increased by 4.6%. Despite early signs of demand returning due to falling mortgage rates, total sales remain low. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was recorded at 6.81%, up 3.74 percentage points from last year, impacting buyer activity.

Positive

• Slight decrease in canceled home-purchase agreements in November.
• Increase in mortgage applications and Redfin's Homebuyer Demand Index suggests a potential uptick in demand.

Negative

• Home sales plummeted 35.1% year-over-year.
• Median sale price growth decelerated to 2.6%, the smallest since May 2020.
• New listings fell 28.4%, the largest drop recorded aside from April 2020.
• Typical for-sale home took 37 days to go under contract, up from 23 days last year.
• Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.81%, a significant rise affecting affordability.

A surge in mortgage rates in early November caused sales and prices to slow, but there are early signs that demand may be creeping back as rates reverse course

SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- (NASDAQ: RDFN) — Home sales fell 35.1% year over year in November on a seasonally-adjusted basis, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. That is the largest decline in Redfin’s records that date back to 2012.

Home-price growth also lost momentum. The median U.S. home-sale price rose just 2.6% from a year earlier, the smallest gain since May 2020, when the onset of the coronavirus pandemic brought the housing market to a near halt.

The housing market continued to cool in November as elevated housing costs kept buyers and sellers on the sidelines. New listings slumped 28.4% year over year, the biggest drop on record aside from April 2020. Despite the decrease in listings, overall supply rose 4.6% from a year earlier—a sign that homes lingered on the market as demand ebbed. Indeed, the typical for-sale home took 37 days to go under contract, up from 23 days a year earlier.

But there are early signs that demand may be starting to creep back as mortgage rates fall. There was a slight downtick in the portion of home-purchase agreements that were canceled in November, and mortgage applications and Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index have both been on the rise. Still, these early indicators haven’t translated into more home sales.

“The worst of inflation is likely in the rearview mirror,” said Redfin Economics Research Lead Chen Zhao. “We do anticipate that mortgage rates will decline slightly further in 2023 as the Fed’s actions continue to bring inflation down, which should ultimately bring more homebuyers back to the market. Still, we have a ways to go until we reach recovery mode, and we may see sales continue to ebb in the short term.”

Zhao continued: “Prospective buyers in places like San Francisco and Austin, where prices have already fallen from a year ago, should pay close attention to a potential turnaround; it could be the time to take action as demand and competitive offers could pick up in the coming months.”

National Highlights

	November 2022	Month-Over-Month Change	Year-Over-Year Change
Median sale price	$393,682	-1.5%	2.6%
Homes sold, seasonally-adjusted	420,213	-5.5%	-35.1%
Pending home sales, seasonally-adjusted	388,608	-2.8%	-35.4%
New listings, seasonally-adjusted	467,945	-4.3%	-28.4%
All homes for sale, seasonally-adjusted	1,511,555	0.6%	4.6%
Months of supply	2.7	0.1	1.3
Median days on market	37	2	15
Share of for-sale homes with a price drop	20.8%	-1.8 ppts	10.8 ppts
Share of homes sold above final list price	26.4%	-2.7 ppts	-18 ppts
Average sale-to-final-list-price ratio	98.5%	-0.4 ppts	-2.2 ppts
Share of home offers written by Redfin agents that faced competition (seasonally adjusted)	40.4%	-3.5 ppts	-26.9 ppts
Pending sales that fell out of contract, as % of overall pending sales	16.8%	-0.4 ppts	4.7 ppts
Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.81%	-0.09 ppts	3.74 ppts
Note: Data is subject to revision

Metro-Level Highlights

• Home sales: Pandemic boomtown Las Vegas saw the biggest drop in home sales, down 51.8% year over year in November. Next came San Jose, CA (-50.1%), Salt Lake City (-49.9%), Stockton, CA (-49.8%) and Oxnard, CA (-48.7%).
• Prices: Eleven metros saw year-over-year declines in median sale prices, with San Francisco leading the drop (-11.1%). It was followed by San Jose, Detroit, Pittsburgh and Boise, ID, all down between 2% and 3%.
• Supply: Pandemic boomtowns North Port, FL and Tampa led the increase in the number of homes for sale, with active listings rising 61.3% and 46.1%, respectively. Next came Nashville, TN (45.1%), New Orleans, LA (40.2%) and Seattle (39.2%). Florida metros likely topped the list because Hurricane Ian drove people to sell their homes; North Port and Cape Coral, another area hit by the storm, were the only two metros where new listings rose on a monthly basis in November.

To view the full report, including charts, additional metro-level data on competition and home-purchase cancellations, as well as methodology, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-tracker-november-2022

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We sell homes for more money and charge half the fee. We also run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can have our renovations crew fix up their home to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 5,000 people.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20221222005359/en/

Redfin Journalist Services:

Ally Braun, 206-588-6863

press@redfin.com

Source: Redfin

FAQ

What were the home sales figures for Redfin in November 2022?

Home sales decreased by 35.1% year-over-year in November 2022.

How much did the median home sale price change in November 2022?

The median home sale price rose only 2.6% from the previous year, the smallest increase since May 2020.

What decline in new listings did Redfin report for November 2022?

New listings dropped by 28.4% year-over-year, the biggest decline recorded since April 2020.

What is the current average mortgage rate according to Redfin?

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was reported at 6.81% in November 2022.

What trends are emerging in the housing market according to Redfin?

There are early signs of demand returning, with a slight increase in mortgage applications and Redfin's Homebuyer Demand Index.