Redfin Reports Home-Sale Prices Hit a Record High For the 9th Straight Week

Rhea-AI Summary

Redfin reports a record high in U.S. median home-sale prices for the ninth consecutive week, reaching $397,482 as of July 7, marking a 4.7% year-over-year increase. Despite elevated mortgage rates suppressing homebuying demand, prices remain high due to historically low inventory. However, signs suggest potential cooling: homes are selling below list price, inventory is rising, and a larger share of listings are stagnating. Pending home sales have dropped 3.5%, and mortgage applications are down 13%. New listings are up 7.3%, and the total homes for sale have increased by 18.3%.

Positive

• Median U.S. home-sale price reached an all-time high of $397,482.
• New listings increased by 7.3% year over year.
• Total number of homes for sale rose by 18.3%.

Negative

• Pending home sales down by 3.5% year over year.
• Mortgage-purchase applications decreased by 13%.
• Homes are selling for 0.4% less than their asking price.
• Only 32% of homes are selling above asking price, down from 36% a year ago.
• Over 60% of homes are listed for at least a month without going under contract.

Insights

Financial Analyst

Analyzing the data from Redfin, the home-sale price increase of 4.7% year over year is notable, especially as it's the biggest increase in over four months. However, despite this growth, several indicators suggest a potential slowdown in market momentum.

Firstly, the home selling price being 0.4% below list price is a significant shift, marking the first time this has happened since 2020. This change, coupled with the fact that only 31.9% of homes are selling above list price (down from 36% a year ago), suggests that sellers are losing some of their leverage.

The rise in inventory levels (18.3% year over year) and the increase in new listings (7.3% year over year) provide more choices for buyers, potentially driving down prices. This scenario is also evident from the fact that most homes for sale are growing stale, with over 60% of homes listed for at least a month without being under contract.

For retail investors, these dynamics suggest a possible cooling of the housing market. While the median sale price is still high, the increase in inventory and the decrease in sales-to-list price ratio could indicate a more balanced market in the near future, potentially limiting the upside for housing-related stocks like Redfin.

Market Research Analyst

The data provided by Redfin reveals several key insights into the real estate market's current state and future trends. The increase in median sale prices to $397,482, though substantial, highlights a market driven by low inventory and strong demand. However, the rising inventory levels and the fact that the typical home is now selling below list price suggest that the market may be transitioning.

The percentage of homes selling above the asking price has dropped to 31.9%, indicating that buyers are becoming more cautious and selective. This behavior might be influenced by persistent high mortgage rates, which have hovered around 6.95%, reducing overall affordability for many potential buyers.

Given these signals, retail investors should keep an eye on inventory trends and mortgage rate fluctuations. While the current data points to a resilient housing market, the increasing supply and softening demand metrics could lead to slower price growth or even a plateau in the near future. Therefore, investments in housing market-related equities may face more volatility and require careful monitoring of these evolving trends.

The median U.S. sale price is up 5% year over year. But there are signs that price growth could slow soon, with the average home selling for under list price, inventory rising and a high share of listings growing stale.

SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- (NASDAQ: RDFN) — The median U.S. home-sale price hit an all-time high of $397,482 during the four weeks ending July 7, up 4.7% year over year—the biggest increase in over four months. That’s according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. This marks the ninth straight week the median sale price has reached a new record high.

Sale prices have remained stubbornly high despite elevated mortgage rates pushing down homebuying demand; pending home sales are down 3.5% year over year and mortgage-purchase applications are down 13%. That’s partly because inventory remains historically low, pushing up prices and pushing down sales. And it’s partly because final sale prices are a lagging indicator—they reflect deals that were struck between buyers and sellers a month or two earlier.

There are signs that price growth may lose momentum soon. The typical home is selling for 0.4% less than its asking price, marking the first time the typical home has sold under list price at the start of July since 2020, when the onset of the pandemic nearly ground the housing market to a halt. Additionally, just 32% of homes are selling above asking price, down from 36% a year ago and the lowest share at this time of year since 2020.

Although inventory is still historically low, it is rising on a year-over-year basis, which is another sign that price growth may lose steam in the coming months. New listings are up 7.3% year over year, and the total number of homes for sale is up 18.3%, with most homes for sale growing stale: More than 60% of homes are listed for at least a month without going under contract. More homes are hitting the market partly because mortgage rates have been sitting at double pandemic-era lows for nearly two years, and sellers are tired of waiting for rates to drop before they move on to their next home.

“Homes are sitting longer than they usually do this time of year, which has led to some—but not all—homes selling for a little bit less,” said Julie Zubiate, a Redfin Premier agent in the Bay Area. “The longer rates stay high, the pickier buyers are getting. Buyers will jump ship or try to negotiate the price down with any sort of tiny problem; sellers should take the time to prep, price and promote their homes correctly to find the right buyer. That being said, there is one segment of the market that is still moving fast, with homes going over asking price with multiple offers: Move-in ready homes with big backyards located in desirable school districts.”

For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.

Leading indicators

Indicators of homebuying demand and activity
	Value (if applicable)	Recent change	Year-over-year change	Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.99% (July 10)	Down from 7.14% a week earlier; first time in about a month it has dropped below 7%	Down from 7.12%	Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.95% (week ending July 3)	Up from 6.86% a week earlier; first increase after 4 straight weeks of declines	Up from 6.81%	Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)		Increased 1% from a week earlier (as of week ending July 5)	Down 13%	Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)		Up 2% from a month earlier (as of week ending July 7)	Down 16%	Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents
Touring activity		Flat from the start of the year (as of July 7)	At this time last year, it was up 1% from the start of 2023	ShowingTime, a home touring technology company
Google searches for “home for sale”		Up 17% from a month earlier (as of July 7)	Down 14%	Google Trends

Key housing-market data

U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending July 7, 2024 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.
	Four weeks ending July 7, 2024	Year-over-year change	Notes
Median sale price	$397,482	4.7%	All-time high; biggest increase in 4 months
Median asking price	$406,000	5.4%	Lowest level in 3 months
Median monthly mortgage payment	$2,742 at a 6.95% mortgage rate	5.3%	$95 below all-time high set during the 4 weeks ending April 28
Pending sales	83,410	-3.5%
New listings	93,452	7.3%
Active listings	970,503	18.3%	Smallest increase in over 2 months
Months of supply	3.6	+0.8 pts.	4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions
Share of homes off market in two weeks	41.1%	Down from 45%
Median days on market	32	+4 days
Share of homes sold above list price	31.9%	Down from 36%
Share of homes with a price drop	6.5%	+1.8 pts.
Average sale-to-list price ratio	99.6%	-0.4 pts.

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending July 7, 2024 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.
	Metros with biggest year-over-year increases	Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases	Notes
Median sale price	West Palm Beach, FL (13.8%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (13%) Detroit (12.9%) New Brunswick, NJ (12.8%) Anaheim, CA (12.2%)	Austin, TX (-1.9%) Dallas (-1.2%)	Declined in 2 metros
Pending sales	San Jose, CA (18.8%) San Francisco (9.4%) Boston (9.2%) Montgomery County, PA (3.8%) Columbus, OH (2.8%)	West Palm Beach, FL (-16.9%) Houston (-13.8%) Miami (-13.6%) Minneapolis (-12.5%) Atlanta (-11.7%)	Increased in 12 metros
New listings	San Jose, CA (29.3%) Jacksonville, FL (21.2%) Las Vegas (21.2%) Miami (19.9%) Phoenix (16.4%)	Atlanta (-9.8%) Minneapolis (-6.2%) Chicago (-5.4%) San Francisco (-4.9%) Portland, OR (-4.3%)	Declined in 9 metros

To view the full report, including charts, methodology and metro-level data, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-home-prices-record-high-rising-supply

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.

Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and WalkScore®.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240711467312/en/

Redfin Journalist Services:

Kenneth Applewhaite

press@redfin.com

Source: Redfin

FAQ

What is the latest median U.S. home-sale price reported by Redfin?

The latest median U.S. home-sale price reported by Redfin is $397,482 as of July 7, marking a 4.7% year-over-year increase.

How have pending home sales changed according to Redfin's latest report?

According to Redfin's latest report, pending home sales have decreased by 3.5% year over year.

What is the current status of mortgage-purchase applications as reported by Redfin?

Redfin reports that mortgage-purchase applications are down 13% year over year.

How much lower are homes selling compared to their asking price according to Redfin?

Homes are selling for 0.4% less than their asking price as reported by Redfin.

What is the percentage of homes selling above asking price according to Redfin's recent data?

According to Redfin's recent data, 32% of homes are selling above asking price, down from 36% a year ago.

How has the number of new listings changed as per Redfin's latest housing market update?

Redfin's latest housing market update shows that new listings are up by 7.3% year over year.

What is the increase in the total number of homes for sale reported by Redfin?

Redfin reports an 18.3% increase in the total number of homes for sale.

What percentage of homes are listed for at least a month without going under contract according to Redfin?

According to Redfin, over 60% of homes are listed for at least a month without going under contract.