Redfin Report: More Homes Hit the Market as Spring Approaches, But 7% Mortgage Rates Keep Buyers on the Sidelines

Rhea-AI Summary

Redfin reports a significant 10% increase in new listings year over year, with sale prices up by 6% since October 2022. Mortgage applications dropped by 10% as daily average rates surpassed 7%, impacting pending home sales which are down by 7% year over year.

Insights

Market Research Analyst

The recent spike in new listings, as reported, signifies a potential shift in the housing market's dynamics. A 10% year-over-year increase suggests that sellers are responding to the prolonged period of high sale prices, which have risen by 6% compared to last year. This indicates a sellers' market, where the inventory is finally responding to price signals. However, the concurrent drop in mortgage applications by 10% and a 7% decrease in pending home sales reflect the resistance from buyers at the current price and interest rate levels.

While the increase in listings could hint at a future easing of prices if demand continues to wane, the high mortgage rates, surpassing 7%, are likely to continue to depress buyer enthusiasm. The impact of these rates is twofold: they not only increase the cost of borrowing, thereby reducing affordability for potential buyers, but they also discourage current homeowners from selling and buying anew, as they would likely face higher rates on a new mortgage.

The Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index's recovery from mid-January lows is an early indicator of potential buyer interest picking up, which could be seasonal or a response to the slight increase in inventory. However, the trend of buyers favoring move-in ready homes suggests a cautious approach to additional expenditures on top of high mortgage payments. Sellers' willingness to provide financial concessions, such as mortgage-rate buydowns and covering closing costs, could be a critical factor in maintaining transaction volumes in this high-rate environment.

Financial Analyst

For investors and stakeholders in the real estate and financial sectors, the current market conditions present a mixed picture. On one hand, the increase in new listings and high sale prices could signal revenue growth for real estate companies and brokerages. On the other hand, the decrease in mortgage applications and pending home sales, coupled with the elevated mortgage rates, could indicate a looming slowdown in the housing market, which may negatively impact the earnings of mortgage lenders and homebuilders.

Historically, the real estate market has been cyclical and the current high-interest-rate environment is likely to curb the growth seen in previous years. Financial institutions may see a decline in new mortgage originations, which could affect their bottom line. Real estate brokerages might experience lower transaction volumes, although the higher average sale prices could partially offset this impact.

Investors should monitor these leading indicators closely, as they may presage changes in the housing market that could ripple through the broader economy. A sustained decrease in demand could eventually lead to price corrections, which would have varying implications for different market participants. The willingness of sellers to offer concessions could be a short-term strategy to sustain deal flow but might also signal an inflection point in pricing power.

Economist

The current state of the housing market as outlined has broader economic implications. High mortgage rates, such as the daily average 30-year fixed rate surpassing 7%, are a reflection of the broader monetary policy environment aimed at controlling inflation. This tightening of monetary policy has a cooling effect on the housing market, which is a significant component of the economy.

Consumer spending behavior is impacted by housing market trends due to the 'wealth effect,' where consumers feel wealthier and spend more when their home values are rising. Conversely, when home values stagnate or decline, consumers may tighten their spending. The current high rates and declining mortgage applications suggest a potential decrease in consumer confidence and spending, which could slow economic growth.

Moreover, the housing market is a key indicator of economic health. A decline in pending home sales and mortgage applications suggests that consumers are cautious, which could lead to a decrease in housing-related expenditures, such as furniture and home improvements. This could have a knock-on effect on other sectors of the economy. However, the uptick in the Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index may indicate resilience in consumer interest, which could buffer against a sharper downturn in the housing sector.

New listings posted their biggest increase in two months this week, but mortgage applications and pending sales declined as rates stay stubbornly high

SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- (NASDAQ: RDFN) —New listings rose 10% year over year during the four weeks ending February 18, the biggest increase in two months, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. Sellers are hoping to take advantage of high prices: Sale prices are up 6% year over year, the biggest increase since October 2022.

But many buyers are still sitting on the sidelines. Mortgage-purchase applications dropped 10% from a week earlier as daily average mortgage rates surpassed 7% for the first time since mid-December, and pending home sales are down 7% year over year, similar to the declines seen since mid-January. But some house hunters are jumping into the earliest stages of homebuying: Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index, which measures requests for tours and homebuying assistance from Redfin agents, is up from the low point it dropped to in mid-January, when harsh weather was freezing up demand.

Redfin agents report that today’s buyers are mostly interested in move-in ready homes because they don’t want to spend money on repairs and renovations in addition to high monthly payments. Agents also recommend that sellers are open to providing some sort of financial concession to buyers to help ease the pain of 7% rates.

“I tell every one of my sellers to have an open mind and put on their buyer's hat. Nine times out of 10, buyers are asking for a concession in their initial offer right now—and usually the seller needs to accept it to seal the deal,” said Shauna Pendleton, a Redfin Premier agent in Boise, ID. “The most common concession buyers are asking for is a mortgage-rate buydown. Requests for sellers to cover the closing costs are also common. I most often see buyers ask for concessions for more affordable homes—anything under $500,000 here in Boise—but I see some concessions on expensive homes, too.”

Leading indicators

Indicators of homebuying demand and activity
	Value (if applicable)	Recent change	Year-over-year change	Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	7.14% (Feb. 21)	Up from 6.92% a month earlier	Up from 6.78%	Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.77% (week ending Feb. 15)	Up from 6.64% a week earlier	Up from 6.12%	Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)		Down 10% from a week earlier (as of week ending Feb. 16)	Down 13%	Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)		Up about 5% from a week earlier (as of week ending Feb. 18)	Down 15%	Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents
Google searches for “home for sale”		Down 4% from a month earlier (as of Feb. 17)	Down 15%	Google Trends
Touring activity		Up 10% from the start of the year (as of Feb. 20)	At this time last year, it was up 14% from the start of 2023	ShowingTime, a home touring technology company

Key housing-market data

U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending February 18, 2024 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.
	Four weeks ending February 18, 2024	Year-over-year change	Notes
Median sale price	$364,751	5.8%	Biggest increase since Oct. 2022
Median asking price	$396,000	5.6%
Median monthly mortgage payment	$2,636 at a 6.77% mortgage rate	7.9%	Down less than $100 from all-time high set in October 2023
Pending sales	74,092	-6.7%
New listings	76,216	9.8%	Biggest increase since Dec. 2023
Active listings	753,204	-1.8%
Months of supply	3.9 months	+0.1 pt.	4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions
Share of homes off market in two weeks	36.5%	Up from 35%
Median days on market	50	-2 days
Share of homes sold above list price	22.9%	Up from 21%
Share of homes with a price drop	5.7%	+1.4 pts.
Average sale-to-list price ratio	98.3%	+0.5 pts.

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending February 18, 2024 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.
	Metros with biggest year-over-year increases	Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases	Notes
Median sale price	San Diego, CA (15%) Newark, NJ (14.3%) Anaheim, CA (13.5%) Philadelphia, PA (12.6%) West Palm Beach, FL (12.4%)	San Antonio, TX (-4.1%) Austin, TX (-0.4%) Fort Worth, TX (-0.3%)	Declined in 3 metros
Pending sales	Austin, TX (5%) San Jose, CA (1.9%)	San Antonio, TX (-31.8%) Cleveland, OH (-25.2%) Warren, MI (-23.5%) Portland, OR (-20.7%) New Brunswick, NJ (-18.4%)	Increased in 2 metros
New listings	Jacksonville, FL (33.5%) Dallas, TX (33%) Fort Worth, TX (26%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (25.3%) Austin, TX (22.6%)	Cleveland, OH (-25.3%) Atlanta (-13.3%) Milwaukee, WI (-9.5%) Warren, MI (-6.7%) Newark, NJ (-6.3%)	Declined in 11 metros

To view the full report, including charts, please visit:

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-new-listings-increase-sales-decline

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We also run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our home-buying customers see homes first with same day tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home in certain markets can have our renovations crew fix up their home to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Customers who buy and sell with Redfin pay a 1% listing fee, subject to minimums, less than half of what brokerages commonly charge. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1.5 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240222020497/en/

Contact Redfin

Redfin Journalist Services:

Kenneth Applewhaite, 206-414-8880

press@redfin.com

Source: Redfin

FAQ

What was the year-over-year increase in new listings according to Redfin?

Redfin reported a 10% increase in new listings year over year.

By how much did sale prices increase since October 2022?

Sale prices are up by 6% since October 2022.

How much did mortgage applications drop by?

Mortgage applications dropped by 10%.

What is the current daily average mortgage rate?

The daily average mortgage rate is at 7.14% as of Feb. 21.

What is the impact of high mortgage rates on pending home sales?

Pending home sales are down by 7% year over year due to high mortgage rates.